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AUD/USD: technical analysis 15 November 2019, 12:22

AUD/USD: technical analysis 15 November 2019, 12:22 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 0...

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Nov 15, 2019

AUD/USD: technical analysis 15 November 2019, 12:22


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.6745
Take Profit 0.6700
Stop Loss 0.6760
Key Levels 0.6671, 0.6728, 0.6765, 0.6817, 0.6867, 0.6926, 0.6954
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6815
Take Profit 0.6870
Stop Loss 0.6790
Key Levels 0.6671, 0.6728, 0.6765, 0.6817, 0.6867, 0.6926, 0.6954
AUD/USD, H4
On the H4 chart, the instrument is trading in the lower part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is pointing down, and the price range has expanded, indicating a continuation of the downtrend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone keeping a strong sell signal. Stochastic is approaching the overbought zone, a sell signal can be formed within 1-2 days.

AUD/USD, D1
On the D1 chart, the instrument is testing the moving midline of Bollinger Bands, which is the key support level. The indicator is reversing down, and the price range has expanded, indicating a continuation of the "bearish" trend. The histogram does not give a clear signal for entering the market. Stochastic entered the oversold area, so a buy signal can be formed in 1-2 days.

Key levels
Support levels: 0.6765, 0.6728, 0.6671.
Resistance levels: 0.6817, 0.6867, 0.6926, 0.6954.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened below the level of 0.6750 with the target at 0.6700 and stop-loss at 0.6760. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened above 0.6810 with the target at 0.6870 and stop-loss at 0.6790. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

WTI Crude Oil: general analysis 15 November 2019, 11:55


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 57.85
Take Profit 59.55
Stop Loss 56.60
Key Levels 51.49, 53.35, 54.76, 55.90, 56.71, 57.48, 58.71, 60.44
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 56.25
Take Profit 54.00
Stop Loss 57.15
Key Levels 51.49, 53.35, 54.76, 55.90, 56.71, 57.48, 58.71, 60.44
Current trend
Yesterday, oil prices fell after the publication of the US EIA oil stocks report. It rose by 2.22 million barrels, and gasoline stocks rose by 1.86 million, while a decrease of 1.17 million was projected. The market reacts restrained to American statistics, as US shale companies were forced to abandon the constant increase in production in favor of ensuring sufficient profits. This year, drilling and investment in the US oil industry have been falling. Apparently, the US will lose influence on oil prices in the future.
The possible prolongation of the OPEC+ agreement until the end of 2020 supports the hydrocarbon market. OPEC reduced its forecast for 2020 by 1.12 million barrels per day. Also, Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow’s message about the imminent signing of a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing supported the market in the short term.
Today at 20:00 (GMT+2), US Baker Hughes rigs count will be released. Given the conditions prevailing in the US oil sector, drilling activity will continue to decline, which is a positive factor for the oil market.
Support and resistance
On a 4-hour chart, the instrument moves within a limited price range and is consolidating near the Bollinger bands MA. The indicator is directed sideways, and the price range is limited, which indicates correctional dynamics. MACD is at the zero line, without a signal to enter the market. Stochastic approaches the oversold zone, a buy signal may be formed today.
Resistance levels: 57.48, 58.71, 60.44.
Support levels: 56.71, 55.90, 54.76, 53.35, 51.49.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened above 57.80 with the target at 59.55 and stop loss 56.60.
Short positions may be opened below 56.30 with the target at 54.00 and stop loss 57.15.
Implementation period: 1–3 days.

XAU/USD: general analysis 15 November 2019, 09:28


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1475.0
Take Profit 1515.0
Stop Loss 1450.0
Key Levels 1400.0, 1451.0, 1475.0, 1515.0
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1451.0
Take Profit 1400.0
Stop Loss 1480.0
Key Levels 1400.0, 1451.0, 1475.0, 1515.0
Current trend
The levels around $1,550 per ounce reached by the XAU/USD pair look quite expected in light of the total buying up of metal by central banks around the world. The de-dollarization policy of some countries, such as Russia and China, shows that the price does not look as high as possible.
The media are increasingly raising the question of the possible impeachment of US President Donald Trump, which will undoubtedly affect the USD Index quotes, which is one of the criteria for the world value of gold. Referring to the current fundamental background, it would be better not to exclude the trading instrument from portfolios.
Support and resistance
In a global perspective, the fourth wave of the classic upward cycle completes the formation on the chart. Obviously, growth above 1600.0 is only a matter of time. In a more local perspective, the Alligator and AO indicators signals the beginning of purchases inside the downward correction channel. The Alligator signal lines are already intertwined, and a rather deep divergence signal is active on the AO.
Resistance levels: 1475.0, 1515.0.
Support levels: 1451.0, 1400.0.


Trading tips
In case of an asset growth and price fixing above a local maximum at the level of 1475.0, buy positions with the target at 1515.0 will be relevant. Stop loss is better to set below the local minimum of 1450.0.
If the asset continues to decline, the divergence signal is canceled and the price consolidates below the local minimum at 1451.0, it is better to open sell positions with the target at 1400.0. Stop loss in this case must be set above the local maximum of 1480.0.
Implementation period: 7 days or more.

NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar is correcting 15 November 2019, 09:19


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6405
Take Profit 0.6440, 0.6464
Stop Loss 0.6374
Key Levels 0.6282, 0.6320, 0.6357, 0.6374, 0.6400, 0.6417, 0.6440, 0.6464
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.6370, 0.6350
Take Profit 0.6320, 0.6300
Stop Loss 0.6380, 0.6400
Key Levels 0.6282, 0.6320, 0.6357, 0.6374, 0.6400, 0.6417, 0.6440, 0.6464
Current trend
NZD showed a decline against USD on Thursday, retreating from local highs of November 5. Investors reacted to the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from China. In October, China's Industrial Production slowed down from 5.8% YoY to 4.7% YoY, which turned out to be worse than market expectations of 5.4% YoY. Retail Sales in China over the same period decreased from 7.8% YoY to 7.2% YoY, which also turned out to be weaker than market forecasts of 7.9% YoY. It should be noted, however, that the Unemployment Rate in China unexpectedly dropped from 5.2% to 5.1%.
Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers at the market. Investors focus on statistics from the United States on Retail Sales and Industrial Production for October.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in the D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is narrowing from below insignificantly, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading of recent days. MACD is growing, keeping a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic maintains an uptrend, but limits the prospects for the further development of the “bullish” trend in the ultra-short term, as it is located near its highs.
One should keep existing long positions in the short and/or ultra-short term. It is worthwhile to postpone opening new positions now.
Resistance levels: 0.6400, 0.6417, 0.6440, 0.6464.
Support levels: 0.6374, 0.6357, 0.6320, 0.6282.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.6400. Take profit – 0.6440 or 0.6464. Stop loss – 0.6374.
A breakdown of 0.6374 or 0.6357 may be a signal for new sales with target at 0.6320 or 0.6300. Stop loss – 0.6380 or 0.6400.
Implementation time: 2-3 days.

USD/CHF: instrument consolidates 15 November 2019, 09:18


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.9900
Take Profit 0.9940, 8850
Stop Loss 0.9869
Key Levels 0.9800, 0.9838, 0.9853, 0.9869, 0.9897, 0.9914, 0.9926, 0.9950
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9865
Take Profit 0.9815, 0.9800
Stop Loss 0.9880, 0.9897
Key Levels 0.9800, 0.9838, 0.9853, 0.9869, 0.9897, 0.9914, 0.9926, 0.9950
Current trend
Yesterday, the USD/CHF pair fell, renewing local lows from November 4. The development of negative dynamics, among other factors, was contributed by poor US macroeconomic statistics. Thus, for October, the US Core CPI slowed down from +2.0% YoY to +1.6% YoY, which, however, turned out to be slightly better than market expectations of +1.5% YoY. In monthly terms, the index grew by 0.3% MoM after a decline of 0.3% MoM for September. Analysts had expected an increase of 0.2% MoM.
The main factor in the development of downward dynamics remains the situation around trade negotiations between the United States and China. The Chinese side continues to insist on the abolition of some previously imposed import duties, which Donald Trump, who considers the current tariffs as a guarantee of compliance with all conditions of the PRC, does not accept. China, in turn, does not specify the volumes of purchases of US agricultural products, while also trying to influence the American negotiators.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands fall. The price range narrows, reflecting the ambiguous trading in the short term. MACD falls, maintaining a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line), and is trying to consolidate below the zero line. Stochastic, approaching its lows, reversed flat, signaling that USD may become oversold in the ultra-short term.
Corrective growth may develop in the ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.9897, 0.9914, 0.9926, 0.9950.
Support levels: 0.9869, 0.9853, 0.9838, 0.9800.


Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after the breakout of 0.9897 with the targets at 0.9940–0.8850. Stop loss – 0.9869.
Short positions may be opened after the breakdown of 0.9869 with the targets at 0.9815–0.9800. Stop loss – 0.9880–0.9897.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

GBP/USD: general review 15 November 2019, 09:17


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2900
Take Profit 1.3011, 1.3060
Stop Loss 1.2830
Key Levels 1.2600, 1.2659, 1.2705, 1.2762, 1.2896, 1.2950, 1.3011, 1.3060
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2825
Take Profit 1.2705, 1.2659
Stop Loss 1.2896
Key Levels 1.2600, 1.2659, 1.2705, 1.2762, 1.2896, 1.2950, 1.3011, 1.3060
Current trend
GBP rose against USD on Thursday, rising to local highs, updated earlier this week. The growth of the instrument was largely determined by technical factors, while the macroeconomic background from the UK remained negative. UK Retail Sales in October showed a decrease of 0.1% MoM, despite an expected increase of 0.2% MoM. In annual terms, the indicator strengthened by 3.1% YoY, which coincided with the data for the previous month. Analysts expected an increase of 3.7% YoY. Core Retail Sales for the same period decreased by 0.3% MoM after rising 0.2% MoM in September. In annual terms, the index slowed down from 2.9% YoY to 2.7% YoY against a forecast of 3.4% YoY.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in the D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range remains consolidated, but fully corresponds to the real dynamics observed in the market. MACD indicator tries to reverse to growth and to form a new buy signal (the histogram should consolidate above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is approaching its highs, which reflects risks of the overbought pound in the ultra-short term.
Current readings of technical indicators do not contradict the further growth of the instrument in the ultra-short and/or short term; however, to open new long positions, it is necessary to wait for the trading signals from the indicators to be clarified.
Resistance levels: 1.2896, 1.2950, 1.3011, 1.3060.
Support levels: 1.2762, 1.2705, 1.2659, 1.2600.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.2896. Take profit – 1.3011 or 1.3060. Stop loss – 1.2830.
The rebound from 1.2896 as from resistance with the subsequent breakdown of 1.2830 can become a signal to new sales with target at 1.2705 or 1.2659. Stop loss – 1.2896.
Implementation time: 2-3 days.

American Express Co.: wave analysis 15 November 2019, 08:55


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 120.94
Take Profit 104.54, 88.95
Stop Loss 129.22
Key Levels 88.95, 104.54, 129.22, 137.00, 145.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 129.25
Take Profit 137.00, 145.00
Stop Loss 126.65
Key Levels 88.95, 104.54, 129.22, 137.00, 145.00
The price may fall.
On the daily chart, the wave and of the higher level developed, and the development of the downward correction as the wave B started. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (A) of B is forming, within which a local correction is developing as the wave ii of 1 of (A). If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will fall to the levels of 104.54–88.95. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 129.22.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant below the level of 129.22 with the targets at 104.54–88.95. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 129.22 will let the price grow to the levels of 137.00–145.00.

Boeing Co.: wave analysis 15 November 2019, 08:49


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 367.55
Take Profit 394.19, 403.53
Stop Loss 358.55
Key Levels 270.00, 292.50, 326.07, 394.19, 403.53
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 326.00
Take Profit 292.50, 270.00
Stop Loss 337.20
Key Levels 270.00, 292.50, 326.07, 394.19, 403.53
The price may grow.
On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level forms as the wave 4, within which the wave (B) of 4 develops. Now, the wave B of (B) has developed, and the wave C of (B) is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 394.19–403.53. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 326.07.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 326.07 with the targets at 394.19–403.53. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 326.07 will let the price go down to the levels of 292.50–270.00.

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