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GBP/USD: general analysis 27 January 2020, 12:48

GBP/USD: general analysis 27 January 2020, 12:48 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point 1.312...

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Jan 27, 2020

GBP/USD: general analysis 27 January 2020, 12:48

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3120
Take Profit 1.3195
Stop Loss 1.3085
Key Levels 1.2836, 1.2921, 1.2984, 1.3048, 1.3100, 1.3160, 1.3225, 1.3297
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3050
Take Profit 1.2925
Stop Loss 1.3110
Key Levels 1.2836, 1.2921, 1.2984, 1.3048, 1.3100, 1.3160, 1.3225, 1.3297
Current trend
Last Friday, the GBP/USD pair moderately decreased, despite the release of positive preliminary data on business activity in the UK. After the publication, the price reached the level of 1.3170. Speculators immediately reacted to a sharp change in dynamics, exerting pressure through mass sales. First of all, the distrust of market participants caused the expectation of production activity growth. Earlier, several officials of the British regulator allowed a reduction in interest rates at the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, which will be held next Thursday. One of the key drivers of this solution is the dynamics of the manufacturing sector.
USD was supported by the positive composite PMI index, which reached a 10-year high due to the acceleration of the services sector. Also, the intention of the government to impose additional duties on cars imported from Europe had a positive effect. Thus, Washington may want to increase the share of American companies in the European agricultural market.
This week, traders are focused on the decisions of the American and British monetary policy regulators. Committee meetings will be held on Wednesday and Thursday.
Support and resistance
On a 4-hour chart, the instrument tests a strong resistance of 1.3100. Bollinger Bands are directed horizontally, and the price range has declined slightly, indicating an intraday correction. The MACD and Stochastic do not give a clear signal to enter the market, confirming the presence of correction dynamics.
Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3160, 1.3225, 1.3297.
Support levels: 1.3048, 1.2984, 1.2921, 1.2836.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened above 1.3115 with the target at 1.3195 and stop loss 1.3085. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions may be opened below 1.3055 with the target at 1.2925 and stop loss 1.3110. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

USD/CHF: general review 27 January 2020, 10:09

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.9720
Take Profit 0.9830
Stop Loss 0.9660
Key Levels 0.9610, 0.9670, 0.9720, 0.9830
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9670
Take Profit 0.9610
Stop Loss 0.9710
Key Levels 0.9610, 0.9670, 0.9720, 0.9830
Current trend
The USD/CHF pair has reached lows at 0.9600 and is consolidating within the sideways range. The annual World Economic Forum in Switzerland disappointed investors. Instead of discussing geopolitical risks and their impact on the global economy, participants devoted almost all the time to issues of gender equality, climate and the rejection of the use of disposable plastic bags.
On Friday, after the end of the event, the US dollar strengthened against all world currencies, and the USD Index reached the year’s highs and is now trading at 97.700. Analyzing the number of net speculative positions on the base US S&P 500 index, only 4.6K were left from last week’s 40.8K positions, so there is a massive closing of profitable positions. It led to the strengthening of the American currency, and the growth of the instrument may continue at the beginning of this week.
Support and resistance
The global downtrend in the asset continues. However, today at the opening of the session, the price consolidated above the resistance line, marking the beginning of a possible change in trend. The Alligator indicator has been in a state of purchase since last week. After the price reaches a local maximum, it is possible to open positions.
Resistance levels: 0.9720, 0.9830.
Support levels: 0.9670, 0.9610.

Trading tips
After the growth or consolidation above the resistance level at 0.9720, buy positions with the target at 0.9830 will be relevant. Stop loss is below the local minimum, around 0.9660.
After a decrease or consolidation below the local minimum around 0.9670, it is better to open sell positions with a target at 0.9610. Stop loss is above the local maximum, around 0.9710.
Implementation period: 5 days or more.

NZD/USD: NZD declines 27 January 2020, 10:08

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6585
Take Profit 0.6618, 0.6635
Stop Loss 0.6553
Key Levels 0.6500, 0.6521, 0.6539, 0.6553, 0.6580, 0.6599, 0.6618, 0.6635
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.6550
Take Profit 0.6500
Stop Loss 0.6580, 0.6590
Key Levels 0.6500, 0.6521, 0.6539, 0.6553, 0.6580, 0.6599, 0.6618, 0.6635
Current trend
NZD shows a “bearish” trend against USD today, updating local lows from December 18. The pair opened with a negative gap and is losing about 0.30%, trading near the level of 0.6570.
Macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand and the US at the end of last week were quite positive; however, NZD remains under the pressure of growing uncertainty. In Q4 2019, New Zealand’s CPI increased by 0.5% QoQ and 1.9% YoY, which was better than expectations of 0.4% QoQ and 1.8% YoY. The US data were positive due to Services PMI, which grew in January from 52.8 to 53.2 points, better than the projected 52.9 points. Markit Manufacturing PMI over the same period decreased from 52.4 to 51.7 points against the forecast of 52.5 points.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart decrease gradually. The price range is expanding from below; however, it fails to catch the development of “bearish” trend. MACD keeps a downtrend and a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). The indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero mark. Stochastic, stepping back from the level of “20” again reverses to the horizontal plane, responding to the “bearish” nature of trading at the beginning of the new week.
Existing short positions should be kept in the short and/or ultra-short term until the signals from technical indicators clear up.
Resistance levels: 0.6580, 0.6599, 0.6618, 0.6635.
Support levels: 0.6553, 0.6539, 0.6521, 0.6500.


Trading tips
Long positions should be opened if the price rebounds from 0.6553 as from support followed by the breakout of 0.6580. Take profit – 0.6618 or 0.6635. Stop loss – 0.6553.
The breakdown of 0.6553 may serve as a signal to new sales with the target at 0.6500. Stop loss – 0.6580 or 0.6590.
Implementation time: 2-3 days.

USD/JPY: USD remains under pressure 27 January 2020, 10:05

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 109.30, 109.45
Take Profit 109.75, 110.00
Stop Loss 109.10, 109.00
Key Levels 108.25, 108.41, 108.72, 108.91, 109.24, 109.42, 109.75, 110.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 108.90, 108.70
Take Profit 108.41, 108.25
Stop Loss 109.00, 109.15
Key Levels 108.25, 108.41, 108.72, 108.91, 109.24, 109.42, 109.75, 110.00
Current trend
USD shows strong growth against JPY during today's Asian session. The pair quickly wins back its losses on a sharp gap down at the opening of trading. USD added about 0.21% and is preparing to test the level of 109.10 for a breakout.
JPY remains quite strong amid growing uncertainty in the market. The second phase of trade negotiations between the US and China promises to be quite tense, as well as negotiations between the UK and the EU after the Brexit process is completed in late January. An additional source of nervousness in the market remains China, where authorities are struggling with the spread of coronavirus. Finally, investors are expecting a meeting of the US Fed this week, and despite the fact that rate cuts are not expected at the end of January, official comments will have a significant impact on market dynamics.
Support and resistance
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, approaching its lows is reversing in an upward direction, indicating the risks of oversold USD in the ultra-short term.
To open new trading positions, it is necessary to wait for the signals from technical indicators to be clarified.
Resistance levels: 109.24, 109.42, 109.75, 110.00.
Support levels: 108.91, 108.72, 108.41, 108.25.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 109.24 or 109.42. Take profit – 109.75 or 110.00. Stop loss – 109.10 or 109.00.
A breakdown of 108.91 or 108.72 can become a signal to open new sales with target at 108.41 or 108.25. Stop loss – 109.00 or 109.15.
Implementation time: 2-3 days.

USD/CAD: general analysis 27 January 2020, 10:03

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3172
Take Profit 1.3280
Stop Loss 1.3100
Key Levels 1.2950, 1.3110, 1.3170, 1.3280
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3110
Take Profit 1.2950
Stop Loss 1.3180
Key Levels 1.2950, 1.3110, 1.3170, 1.3280
Current trend
The USD/CAD pair continues to grow actively.
The main reason for the dynamics was the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics from Canada, which could not support the national currency, although the Bank of Canada left the interest rate at 1.75%. Manufacturing Sales fell by –0.6% against expectations of –0.3%. The consumer price index for December decrease stayed at the November’s level, at –0.1%, which affected the annual indicator, the growth of which was 1.7% against the expected 1.9%. Wholesale Sales also decreased by –1.2%, despite the expected decline of only –0.3%.
However, US statistics were positive. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 211K, which is better than the expected 215K. A sharp reduction in traders’ positions on Friday led to even greater growth of the US dollar. The USD Index even surpassed the years’ highs and consolidated at 97.600.
In case of further growth of the US currency at the beginning of the week, the instrument will strengthen further.
Support and resistance
Price is rising within the global “expanding formation” pattern and is currently in the middle of the range. Oscillator AO crossed the zero line, confirming a buy signal. The Alligator indicator gave a similar signal.
Resistance levels: 1.3170, 1.3280.
Support levels: 1.3110, 1.2950.

Trading tips
After the growth of consolidation above the resistance level at 1.3170, buy positions with the target at 1.3280 will be relevant. Stop loss must is below the support level at 1.3100.
After a decrease or consolidation below the local minimum and the support level around 1.3110, it is better to open sell positions with the target at 1.2950. Stop loss – 1.3180.
Implementation period: 5 days.

XAU/USD: wave analysis 27 January 2020, 09:59

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1580.07
Take Profit 1650.00, 1700.00
Stop Loss 1515.11
Key Levels 1445.80, 1479.90, 1515.11, 1650.00, 1700.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1515.05
Take Profit 1479.90, 1445.80
Stop Loss 1526.80
Key Levels 1445.80, 1479.90, 1515.11, 1650.00, 1700.00
The price may grow.
On the daily chart, an upward trend forms as the wave of the higher level C of (B), within which the local correction iv of C ended. Now, the fifth wave v of C is forming, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of v has developed, and a downward correction is forming as the wave (ii) of v. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will grow to the levels of 1650.00–1700.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1515.11.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant after the end of the correction, above the level of 1515.11 with the targets at 1650.00–1700.00. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1515.11 let the price fall to the levels of 1479.90–1445.80.

EUR/USD: wave analysis 27 January 2020, 09:57

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.1035
Take Profit 1.1300, 1.1410
Stop Loss 1.0979
Key Levels 1.0800, 1.0881, 1.0979, 1.1300, 1.1410
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.0970
Take Profit 1.0881, 1.0800
Stop Loss 1.1030
Key Levels 1.0800, 1.0881, 1.0979, 1.1300, 1.1410
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the first wave of the higher level (1) of 3 develops, within which the third wave 3 of (1) forms. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of 3 has formed, and a downward correction has developed as the wave ii of 3. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.1300–1.1410. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0979.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant above the level of 1.0979 with the targets at 1.1300–1.1410. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.0979 will let the pair go down to the levels of 1.0881–1.0800.

Jan 24, 2020

XAU/USD: general review 24 January 2020, 09:27

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1567.0
Take Profit 1610.0
Stop Loss 1540.0
Key Levels 1524.0, 1548.0, 1567.0, 1610.0
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1548.0
Take Profit 1524.0
Stop Loss 1565.0
Key Levels 1524.0, 1548.0, 1567.0, 1610.0
Current trend
Gold is in a stable sideways trend and is in no hurry to decline, despite the relative strength of USD and other risky assets.
Meanwhile, changes are brewing in the top three world leaders in liquidity: oil is actively declining, while USD quotes are not changing. Such a process will inevitably lead to a rise in price of the third instrument, which is gold. Moreover, a number of leading analytical agencies, including Goldman Sachs and Moody’s, have recently spoken in favor of the precious metal as an ideal safe haven asset to hedge current geopolitical risks, such as tensions between the US and Iran.
In the near future, it is worth sticking to the range of 1540.0–1560.0 and monitoring changes in the USD Index, in the case of a further decrease in which long positions in gold should be increased.
Support and resistance
The Head and shoulders correction pattern was not confirmed, transforming into the Pennant pattern. Its implementation has already begun, and the price is gradually moving towards global growth. Due to the narrow range of fluctuations, the indicators are uncertain. However, a rare Three Black Crows candlestick pattern has formed on the chart, which portends the asset growth today.
Resistance levels: 1567.0, 1610.0.
Support levels: 1548.0, 1524.0.

Trading tips
If the asset continues growing and the price consolidates above the local high at 1567.0, buy positions will be relevant with target at 1610.0. It is advisable to place the stop loss below the local low at 1540.0.
If the asset declines and the price consolidates below the local low at 1548.0, short positions can be opened with the target at 1524.0. Stop loss should be placed above the local high, at 1565.0.
Implementation time: 7 days and more.

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