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USD/CAD: technical analysis 15 October 2019, 12:43

USD/CAD: technical analysis 15 October 2019, 12:43 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point 1.324...

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Oct 15, 2019

USD/CAD: technical analysis 15 October 2019, 12:43


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3240
Take Profit 1.3290, 1.3345
Stop Loss 1.3200
Key Levels 1.3015, 1.3085, 1.3130, 1.3240, 1.3290, 1.3345
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3085
Take Profit 1.3015
Stop Loss 1.3130
Key Levels 1.3015, 1.3085, 1.3130, 1.3240, 1.3290, 1.3345
USD/CAD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is growing, having left the oversold zone. The Composite is testing its most recent resistance.

USD/CAD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is falling, having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its strong support.

Key levels
Support levels: 1.3130 (September lows), 1.3085 (February lows), 1.3015 (July lows).
Resistance levels: 1.3240 (local highs), 1.3290 (local highs), 1.3345 (August highs).
Trading tips
The price keeps consolidating above its long-term ascending trendline. There is a chance of an upward rebound.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3240 with targets at 1.3290, 1.3345 and stop-loss at 1.3200. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3085 with the target at 1.3015 and stop-loss at 1.3130. Validity – 3-5 days.

USD/JPY: the pair is trading in both directions 15 October 2019, 10:24


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 108.50, 108.80
Take Profit 109.30, 109.50
Stop Loss 108.30, 108.02
Key Levels 107.51, 107.77, 108.02, 108.24, 108.46, 108.74, 108.98, 109.30
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 108.20, 108.00
Take Profit 107.51, 107.22
Stop Loss 108.46, 108.74
Key Levels 107.51, 107.77, 108.02, 108.24, 108.46, 108.74, 108.98, 109.30
Current trend
USD showed ambiguous dynamics against JPY on Monday, halting the development of an uptrend in the short term, which brought the instrument to local highs of August 1. Japanese exchanges were closed yesterday due to the Health and Sports Day, so market activity remained fairly low.
Today, the instrument is trading in both directions, reacting to the publication of macroeconomic statistics from Japan. Industrial Production in August showed a decrease of 1.2% MoM and 4.7% YoY, which coincided with the forecasts and the pace of decline in July. At the same time, Capacity Utilization indicator in August collapsed by 2.9% after an increase of 1.1% a month earlier. Analysts expected negative dynamics, but expected a slight decrease of –0.2%. Tertiary Industry Index in August grew by 0.4% MoM after declining by 0.1% MoM in the previous month. The index turned out significantly better than its forecasts of –0.2% MoM.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range expands from above, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing preserving a moderate buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, reaching its highs, reversed into the descending plane, reflecting the risks of correctional trend in the ultra-short term.
The development of a full-fledged downtrend is possible in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 108.46, 108.74, 108.98, 109.30.
Support levels: 108.24, 108.02, 107.77, 107.51.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 108.46 or 108.74. Take profit — 109.30 or 109.50. Stop loss — 108.30 or 108.02.
A breakdown of 108.24 or 108.02 may be a signal for new sales with target at 107.51 or 107.22. Stop loss — 108.46 or 108.74.
Implementation time: 2-3 days.

ATT Inc.: wave analysis 15 October 2019, 09:26


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 37.50
Take Profit 40.03, 42.56
Stop Loss 36.82
Key Levels 30.03, 33.00, 36.82, 40.03, 42.56
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 36.75
Take Profit 33.00, 30.03
Stop Loss 38.00
Key Levels 30.03, 33.00, 36.82, 40.03, 42.56
The price may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, an upward trend develops within the third wave of the higher level iii of 1 of (5). Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii of 1 i developing, within which a local correction has formed as the wave iv of (iii) shaped as a triangle. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 40.03–42.56. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 36.82.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 36.82 with the targets at 40.03–42.56. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 36.82 will let the price go down to the levels of 33.00–30.03.

Intel Corp.: wave analysis 15 October 2019, 09:25


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 51.63
Take Profit 47.39, 44.73
Stop Loss 53.36
Key Levels 44.73, 47.39, 53.36, 57.18, 59.76
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 53.40
Take Profit 57.18, 59.76
Stop Loss 52.10
Key Levels 44.73, 47.39, 53.36, 57.18, 59.76
The price may fall.
On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction of the higher level forms as the wave (4), within which the wave B of (4) ended. Now, the development of the wave C of (4) has started, within which the wave i of C has formed, and the local correction ii of C is ending. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 47.39–44.73. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 53.36.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 53.36 with the targets at 47.39–44.73. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 53.36 will let the price grow to the levels of 57.18–59.76.

USD/CHF: wave analysis 15 October 2019, 09:24


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.9967
Take Profit 0.9656, 0.9556
Stop Loss 1.0028
Key Levels 0.9556, 0.9656, 1.0028, 1.0121, 1.0230
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.0035
Take Profit 1.0121, 1.0230
Stop Loss 0.9975
Key Levels 0.9556, 0.9656, 1.0028, 1.0121, 1.0230
The pair may fall.
On the 4-hour chart, a local correction developed as the second wave of the higher level ii of 1, shaped as a flat. Now, the development of the wave iii of 1 i starting, within which the entry first wave of the lower level i of (i) of iii has formed, and the correction ii of (i) of iii has ended. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.9656–0.9556. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0028.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 1.0028 with the targets at 0.9656–0.9556. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 1.0028 will let the pair grow to the levels of 1.0121–1.0230.

AUD/USD: wave analysis 15 October 2019, 09:23


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.6775
Take Profit 0.6540, 0.6418
Stop Loss 0.6810
Key Levels 0.6418, 0.6540, 0.6810, 0.6899, 0.7080
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6815
Take Profit 0.6899, 0.7080
Stop Loss 0.6755
Key Levels 0.6418, 0.6540, 0.6810, 0.6899, 0.7080
The pair may fall.
On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level iii of 3 of (5) forms, within which the wave (iii) of iii of 3 develops. Now, the first wave of the lower level i of (iii) has formed, and the local correction ii of (iii) ha developed. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.6540–0.6418. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6810.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant below the level of 0.6810 with the targets at 0.6540–0.6418. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 0.6810 will let the pair grow to the levels of 0.6899–0.7080.

Oct 14, 2019

USD/CHF: technical analysis 14 October 2019, 11:20


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.9985
Take Profit 1.0025, 1.0055
Stop Loss 0.9960
Key Levels 0.9845, 0.9900, 0.9925, 0.9985, 1.0025, 1.0055
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9900
Take Profit 0.9845
Stop Loss 0.9925
Key Levels 0.9845, 0.9900, 0.9925, 0.9985, 1.0025, 1.0055
USD/CHF, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is testing from above its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

USD/CHF, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just above its moving averages that are turning up. The RSI keeps testing from above its longer MA. The Composite is testing its longer MA from below.

Key levels
Support levels: 0.9925 (local lows), 0.9900 (March lows), 0.9845 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 0.9985 (local highs), 1.0025 (local highs), 1.0055 (May 2018 highs).
Trading tips
The price keeps trading in the ascending channel. The upward correction could continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.9985 with targets at 1.0025, 1.0055 and stop-loss at 0.9960. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.9900 with the target at 0.9845 and stop-loss at 0.9925. Validity – 3-5 days.

EUR/USD: the euro strengthens 14 October 2019, 11:19


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.1055
Take Profit 1.1133, 1.1150
Stop Loss 1.1023, 1.1000
Key Levels 1.0947, 1.0982, 1.1000, 1.1023, 1.1050, 1.1074, 1.1100, 1.1133
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.0995
Take Profit 1.0924, 1.0903
Stop Loss 1.1040, 1.1050
Key Levels 1.0947, 1.0982, 1.1000, 1.1023, 1.1050, 1.1074, 1.1100, 1.1133
Current trend
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair actively grew, renewing the highs of September 20. Nevertheless, the instrument failed to consolidate at the new highs, and by the end of the daily session, USD significantly restored. EUR is supported by optimistic signals about Brexit and the process of a new round of US-China negotiations. Last week, Boris Johnson met with his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar, following which the parties were able to find common ground that could be enough to work out a final agreement. The EU praised Johnson’s actions, noting that little time is left to conclude a new deal.
During today's Asian session, the pair is trading mixed. Investors react to Chinese statistics on exports and imports, and also expect new drivers to appear on the market. On Monday, August data on EU industrial production will be released, as well as a speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands reverse upwards. The price range expands but not as fast as the “bullish” moods develop. MACD grows, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line), and is close to testing the zero line. After a short period of decline, Stochastic actively grows, approaching its highs. The indicator readings reflect that EUR is overbought in the ultra-short term.
It is better to keep the current long positions until the situation becomes clear.
Resistance levels: 1.1050, 1.1074, 1.1100, 1.1133.
Support levels: 1.1023, 1.1000, 1.0982, 1.0947.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 1.1050 with the targets at 1.1133–1.1150. Stop loss – 1.1023–1.1000.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.1000 with the target at 1.0924 or 1.0903. Stop loss – 1.1040–1.1050.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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