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GBP/USD: general analysis 26 February 2020, 13:50

GBP/USD: general analysis 26 February 2020, 13:50 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation BUY Entry Point 1.2940 ...

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Feb 26, 2020

GBP/USD: general analysis 26 February 2020, 13:50

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.2940
Take Profit 1.3020
Stop Loss 1.2925
Key Levels 1.2836, 1.2921, 1.2984, 1.3048, 1.3100, 1.3160, 1.3225, 1.3297
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2925
Take Profit 1.2890
Stop Loss 1.2960
Key Levels 1.2836, 1.2921, 1.2984, 1.3048, 1.3100, 1.3160, 1.3225, 1.3297
Current trend
Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair strengthened amid a poor US Consumer Confidence but today almost lost all of its progress due to a drop in mortgage lending in the UK.
Coronavirus continues to spread, slowing economic activity in Europe, the Asian region and the Middle East. Currently, investors are leaving the market, fearing a sharp fall in the global economy. USD becomes more vulnerable as the US Centers for Disease Control warned of a high probability of a pandemic in the country. The US stock market responded with a massive decline, Treasury bond yields declined. Despite the assurances of the Fed members about a stable monetary policy, the likelihood of lower rates in the near future increased. In the EU, some cases of the disease were confirmed. If the governments of European countries do not begin to restrict the movement of citizens, as well as implement budgetary and monetary stimulus, the panic in the market will intensify.
Today at 17:00 (GMT+2), US housing market data will be released. Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2), US Q4 2019 GDP will be published, and on Thursday at 15:30 (GMT+2), US Durable Goods Orders will be released.
Support and resistance
On a 4-hour chart, the instrument tests Bollinger bands’ MA, which acts as a key support. Bollinger bands are directed upward, and the price range remains wide, which indicates the resumption of growth from the current level. MACD does not give an entry signal. Stochastic formed a sell signal.
Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3160, 1.3225, 1.3297.
Support levels: 1.3048, 1.2984, 1.2921, 1.2836.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3020 and stop loss 1.2925.
Short positions may be opened below 1.2925 with the target at 1.2890 and stop loss 1.2960.
Implementation period: 1–2 days.

USD/CHF: strong dollar supports the pair 26 February 2020, 09:22

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.9850
Take Profit 0.9990
Stop Loss 0.9750
Key Levels 0.9620, 0.9740, 0.9850, 0.9990
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9740
Take Profit 0.9630
Stop Loss 0.9790
Key Levels 0.9620, 0.9740, 0.9850, 0.9990
Current trend
The USD/CHF pair stays within a local uptrend, being slightly corrected to the previous growth. The main driver of the current trend in conditions of relative stability in the Swiss economy is the American dollar. Yesterday, 2019 Q4 data on the level of employment in the country were released. The indicator remained virtually unchanged and amounted to 5.130 million against 5.137 million in the third quarter.
The USD Index, which is held above 99,000 points, keeps the pair from a decrease. However, in the rhetoric of some FOMC members, analysts find uncertainty and distrust in the current monetary policy and the likelihood of lower interest rates at the next meeting increases.
However, in the short term, a strong dollar will continue to support the instrument, which is likely to remain at the same levels.
Support and resistance
After the implementation of the local “head and shoulders” reversal pattern, the price decreases again. The Alligator indicator was in a stable range a few days ago, and now the EMA has almost crossed, which indicates a possible change in trend. The AO oscillator has already formed several downward bars but is still above the zero line.
Support levels: 0.9740, 0.9620.
Resistance levels: 0.9850, 0.9990.

Trading tips
After a reversal and growth or consolidation above the level and resistance line around 0.9850, buy positions with the target at 0.9990 will be relevant. Stop loss is below the local minimum, around 0.9750.
After decline or consolidation below the local minimum around 0.9740, it is important to open sell positions with a target at 0.9630. Stop loss is at a local minimum, around 0.9790.
Implementation period: 7 days or more.

AUD/USD: the instrument is consolidating 26 February 2020, 09:19

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6605, 0.6625
Take Profit 0.6677, 0.6700
Stop Loss 0.6584, 0.6560
Key Levels 0.6500, 0.6530, 0.6560, 0.6584, 0.6620, 0.6650, 0.6677, 0.6700
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.6580
Take Profit 0.6530, 0.6500
Stop Loss 0.6620, 0.6630
Key Levels 0.6500, 0.6530, 0.6560, 0.6584, 0.6620, 0.6650, 0.6677, 0.6700
Current trend
AUD shows a decline against USD during today’s Asian session, returning to record lows, updated earlier this week. Pressure on the instrument is exerted by negative macroeconomic publications from Australia. Construction Work Done in Q4 2019 sharply decreased by 3% QoQ after a slight increase of 0.4% QoQ in the previous quarter. Analysts had expected negative dynamics, but expected a decrease of 1.0% QoQ. Negativity from Australia contrasts markedly with a number of optimistic US publications coming out on Tuesday. According to December results, the US Housing Price Index increased by 0.6% MoM after rising by 0.3% MoM in the previous month. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices accelerated over the same period from 2.5% YoY to 2.9% YoY, ahead of their forecasts (2.8% YoY).
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is narrowing from above, remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic maintains an uncertain downtrend, but for several days now it has been close to the zero mark, which signals the risks associated with the oversold AUD in the ultra-short term.
Full-fledged corrective growth is possible in the short and/or ultra-short term when forming the corresponding signals from technical indicators.
Resistance levels: 0.6620, 0.6650, 0.6677, 0.6700.
Support levels: 0.6584, 0.6560, 0.6530, 0.6500.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the support level of 0.6584, with the subsequent breakout of 0.6600 or 0.6620. Take profit – 0.6677 or 0.6700. Stop loss – 0.6584 or 0.6560.
A breakdown of 0.6584 may be a signal for new sales with target at 0.6530 or 0.6500. Stop loss – 0.6620 or 0.6630.
Implementation time: 2-3 days.

EUR/USD: EUR is corrected 26 February 2020, 09:17

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.0905
Take Profit 1.0970, 1.1000
Stop Loss 1.0862, 1.0850
Key Levels 1.0777, 1.0800, 1.0826, 1.0862, 1.0900, 1.0924, 1.0940, 1.0970
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.0860, 1.0845
Take Profit 1.0800, 1.0777
Stop Loss 1.0900
Key Levels 1.0777, 1.0800, 1.0826, 1.0862, 1.0900, 1.0924, 1.0940, 1.0970
Current trend
EUR shows negative dynamics against USD during today’s Asian session, retreating from local highs since February 12, updated the day before. EUR is noticeably pressured by the weakening of the European economy amid continuing risks of the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. An outbreak in Italy threatens to exacerbate negative economic results in the country, reduce tourist popularity and push the economy towards a technical recession. A possible recession threatens the largest economy in Europe as well. At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from Germany published on Tuesday turned out to be neutral. According to updated data, German GDP for Q4 2019 increased by 0% QoQ and 0.4% YoY. Excluding seasonal adjustments, the German economy added 0.3% YoY.
Support and resistance
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the flat dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic, having approached its highs, reversed into the horizontal plane, indicating strongly overbought EUR in the ultra-short term.
Existing long positions should be kept in the short and/or ultra-short term until the signals from technical indicators clear up.
Resistance levels: 1.0900, 1.0924, 1.0940, 1.0970.
Support levels: 1.0862, 1.0826, 1.0800, 1.0777.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.0900. Take profit – 1.0970 or 1.1000. Stop loss – 1.0862 or 1.0850.
A breakdown of 1.0862 or 1.0850 may be a signal for new sales with target at 1.0800 or 1.0777. Stop loss should be placed no further than 1.0900.
Implementation time: 2-3 days.

XAU/USD: gold prices are corrected 26 February 2020, 09:02

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1658.30
Take Profit 1689.11, 1700.00
Stop Loss 1640.00
Key Levels 1602.18, 1611.06, 1620.00, 1630.00, 1640.00, 1658.27, 1689.11
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1639.95, 1629.95
Take Profit 1611.06, 1602.18
Stop Loss 1650.00, 1658.27
Key Levels 1602.18, 1611.06, 1620.00, 1630.00, 1640.00, 1658.27, 1689.11
Current trend
Gold prices show growth during today’s Asian session, correcting after a sharp decline in quotations yesterday. The instrument is testing the level of 1645.00 for a breakout. Analysts attribute the appearance of negative trading dynamics on Tuesday to the fixation of long profits after updating seven-year highs. At the same time, investors are still frightened by statistics on the spread of the incidence of coronavirus outside of China, which supports gold quotes. Additional support for the instrument is provided by talks about the possible introduction by the leading regulators of changes in monetary policy in order to mitigate the negative consequences of a slowdown in the global economy. A number of analysts believe that the Fed may return to the idea of cutting rates already at the March meeting.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range is expanding, indicating the possibility of a return of the “bulls” to previous record highs. MACD indicator is prone to reversing downwards preserving the buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic shows an active decline, reacting to the collapse of the instrument on Tuesday.
To open new trading positions, it is necessary to wait for the signals from technical indicators to be clarified.
Resistance levels: 1640.00, 1658.27, 1689.11.
Support levels: 1630.00, 1620.00, 1611.06, 1602.18.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1658.27. Take profit – 1689.11 or 1700.00. Stop loss – 1640.00.
A breakdown of 1640.00 or 1630.00 may be a signal for new sales with target at 1611.06 or 1602.18. Stop loss – 1650.00 or 1658.27.
Implementation time: 2-3 days.

NZD/USD: general analysis 26 February 2020, 08:53

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.6250
Take Profit 0.6080
Stop Loss 0.6350
Key Levels 0.6080, 0.6250, 0.6420, 0.6630
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6420
Take Profit 0.6630
Stop Loss 0.6350
Key Levels 0.6080, 0.6250, 0.6420, 0.6630
Current trend
The NZD/USD pair continues to trade within a global downtrend, consolidating in the local perspective near the level of 0.6320.
USD Index remains at very high levels near 100 points due to positive macroeconomic reporting. Thus, Existing Home Sales for January amounted to 5.46 million, which is better than the forecast of 5.43 million. The CB Consumer Confidence index for February reached 130.7, which is worse than the forecasted 132.0.
But statistics from New Zealand are again negative. Q4 2019 Producer Purchase Price index year amounted to 0.1%, which is worse than the forecasted 0.4%. Retail Sales for the same period reached 0.7%, which is significantly worse than 1.6% a quarter earlier.
In general, the pair's downside potential is still quite high.
Support and resistance
The global downtrend continues, and the price approaches the global minimum of the fall of 2019 around 0.6250. The Alligator indicator is stably directed downward, and the range of EMA fluctuations is quite wide. The histogram of the AO oscillator is significantly below the zero line, and the bars are pointing downwards. Most factors indicate a further decline.
Resistance levels: 0.6420, 0.6630.
Support levels: 0.6250, 0.6080.

Trading tips
After decline or consolidation below the global minimum at 0.6250, it is important to open sell positions with a target at 0.6080. Stop loss – 0.6350.
After a reversal and growth or consolidation above the level of 0.6420, purchase positions with the target at 0.6630 will be relevant. Stop loss —0.6350.
Implementation period: 7 days or more.

JP Morgan Chase Co.: wave analysis 26 February 2020, 08:50

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 135.83
Take Profit 150.00, 155.00
Stop Loss 131.10
Key Levels 98.20, 104.90, 118.95, 150.00, 155.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 118.90
Take Profit 104.90, 98.20
Stop Loss 123.60
Key Levels 98.20, 104.90, 118.95, 150.00, 155.00
The price is in a correction and may grow.
On the daily chart, the fifth wave of the higher level 5 of (3) develops, within which the wave iii of 5 formed. Now, a local correction is developing as the fourth wave iv of 5. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the price will grow to the levels of 150.00–155.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 118.95.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant after the end of the correction, above the level of 118.95 with the targets at 150.00–155.00. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 118.95 will let the price go down to the levels of 104.90–98.20.

IBM Corp.: wave analysis 26 February 2020, 08:48

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 149.82
Take Profit 125.75, 120.50
Stop Loss 157.74
Key Levels 120.50, 125.75, 157.74, 170.90, 182.70
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 157.80
Take Profit 170.90, 182.70
Stop Loss 153.40
Key Levels 120.50, 125.75, 157.74, 170.90, 182.70
The price may fall.
On the daily chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the fourth wave IV, and the formation of the wave V started. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (1) has formed, and a downward correction has started to develop as the wave 2 of (1), within which the wave a of 2 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 125.75–120.50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 157.74.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 157.74 with the targets at 125.75–120.50. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 157.74 will let the price grow to the levels of 170.90–182.70.

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