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USD/JPY: general review 21 May 2019, 14:14

USD/JPY: general review 21 May 2019, 14:14 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation BUY Entry Point 110.26 Take Prof...

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May 21, 2019

USD/JPY: general review 21 May 2019, 14:14

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 110.26
Take Profit 111.75, 112.15
Stop Loss 109.00
Key Levels 108.70, 109.10, 109.55, 109.75, 110.00, 110.20, 110.35, 110.50, 110.70, 110.85, 111.10, 111.40, 111.75, 112.15
Current trend
The dollar against the yen has moved from decline to growth.
From late April to mid-May, the pair rapidly declined amid falling investment demand for the US currency and rising interest in the yen as a "safe haven" asset. At the beginning of last week, the instrument reached a key support level of 109.10, moved to the lateral consolidation, and began to form an upward impulse. Over the past few days, the pair is moving within the narrow upward channel, having reached the first serious resistance level of 110.35. Additional support for the instrument was provided by weak data on Japanese indices.
Support and resistance
In the medium term, the pair will continue to grow within the current upward momentum amid rising demand for the dollar and falling interest in the yen. There is a high probability of a cardinal change of direction: in the medium term, the instrument may again go to the maximum of March and April at 112.15. The level of 110.70 can become a serious obstacle on the way to it.
Technical indicators changed direction on H4 chart: MACD indicates a sharp increase in the volume of long positions and Bollinger Bands reversed up.
Support levels: 110.20, 110.00, 109.75, 109.55, 109.10, 108.70.
Resistance levels: 110.35, 110.50, 110.70, 110.85, 111.10, 111.40, 111.75, 112.15.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 111.75, 112.15 and stop loss at 109.00.

GBP/USD: general analysis 21 May 2019, 13:08

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2690
Take Profit 1.2573, 1.2450
Stop Loss 1.2770
Key Levels 1.2450, 1.2573, 1.2695, 1.2817, 1.2940, 1.3060
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2820
Take Profit 1.2940, 1.3060
Stop Loss 1.2745
Key Levels 1.2450, 1.2573, 1.2695, 1.2817, 1.2940, 1.3060
Current trend
This week, the pair fell and reached 5-month lows around 1.2695.
GBP weakens amid the collapse of the Labor and Conservative negotiations. Labor leader Jeremy Corbin officially announced that his party would not support the Brexit deal on the ballot, scheduled for early June. Now, the ministers of the conservative government try to persuade the deputies to approve the treaty, bypassing their party leader. Theresa May promised to submit new “bold offers” on Brexit to the House of Commons, and the Minister of Health Matt Hancock stated that the deputies should support the deal as a whole and only then think about the details. However, the chances of a consensus seem insignificant. USD is supported by the latest comments of the Fed members. Yesterday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, said that he did not expect an early rate cut, while Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that US corporate debt is at a record level but does not threaten the financial system.
Support and resistance
The price tests 1.2695 at the lower border of the Murrey's trading range and may decline to 1.2573 (Murrey [–1/8]), 1.2451 (Murrey [–2/8]). Otherwise, a correction to the middle line of Bollinger bands around ​​1.2940 (Murrey [2/8]) is possible.
Technical indicators confirm the decline. Bollinger bands diverge, confirming the downtrend, the MACD grows in the negative zone, Stochastic is in the oversold zone but directed downwards.
Resistance levels: 1.2817, 1.2940, 1.3060.
Support levels: 1.2695, 1.2573, 1.2450.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened when the price consolidates below 1.2695 with the targets at 1.2573, 1.2450 and stop loss around 1.2770.
Long positions can be opened from 1.2820 with the targets at 1.2940, 1.3060 and stop loss 1.2745.
Implementation period: 4–5 days.

Brent Crude Oil: general review 21 May 2019, 10:04

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 73.65
Take Profit 74.50
Stop Loss 73.25
Key Levels 71.20, 72.00, 73.60, 74.50
Current trend
Brent crude oil is traded in an upward channel with a resistance level at 73.60 and support level at 70.30.
Significant demand for "black gold" is provided by the possibility of new attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The second positive moment for the energy market is the decision of OPEC to adhere to a balanced market and not to increase current production. At the same time, representatives of the organization said they would focus on demand and monitor global reserves in order to be able to influence the situation in a timely manner. Under the current agreement, the countries of the oil cartel have agreed to reduce total production by 1.2M barrels per day. It is also worth noting that last week a report on drilling activity in the United States was published, showing that the number of active oil rigs fell from 805 to 802 units in a week. The slowdown of this indicator indicates a possible decrease in production growth in the United States: over the past two weeks, the rate of oil refining fell by 100K barrels per day. At the same time, in Canada the activity indicator remained at the same level: the number of drilling rigs was 22 units.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is at 35 points and does not provide any signals for the opening of transactions.
Resistance levels: 73.60, 74.50.
Support levels: 72.00, 71.20.

Trading tips
Open long positions after the breakout of 73.60 with take profit at 74.50 and stop loss at 73.25.

ATT Inc.: wave analysis 21 May 2019, 09:39

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 32.19
Take Profit 34.28, 36.37
Stop Loss 30.15
Key Levels 25.01, 26.82, 30.05, 34.28, 36.37
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 30.00
Take Profit 26.82, 25.01
Stop Loss 31.10
Key Levels 25.01, 26.82, 30.05, 34.28, 36.37
The price may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave (2), and the formation of the third wave (3) began. Now, the first wave of the lower level 1 of (3) is developing, within which the local correction ii of 1 has ended, and the development of the wave iii of 1 has begun. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 34.28–36.37. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 30.05.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 30.05 with the targets at 34.28–36.37. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 30.05 will let the price go down to the levels of 26.82–25.01.

Intel Corp.: wave analysis 21 May 2019, 09:36

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 43.58
Take Profit 42.00, 41.00
Stop Loss 45.05
Key Levels 41.00, 42.00, 45.95, 51.43, 53.32
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 46.00
Take Profit 51.43, 53.32
Stop Loss 44.15
Key Levels 41.00, 42.00, 45.95, 51.43, 53.32
The price may fall.
On the 4-hour chart, the third wave (3) of the higher level developed, and a downward correction forms as the wave (4). Now, a downward momentum is developing within the wave A of (4), within which the wave v of A of the lower level is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 42.00–41.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 45.95.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant below the level of 45.95 with the targets at 42.00–41.00. Implementation period: 3–5 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 45.95 will let the price grow to the levels of 51.43–53.32.

USD/CHF: wave analysis 21 May 2019, 09:33

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.0114
Take Profit 1.0400
Stop Loss 1.0048
Key Levels 0.9712, 0.9894, 1.0048, 1.0400
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.0040
Take Profit 0.9894, 0.9712
Stop Loss 1.0100
Key Levels 0.9712, 0.9894, 1.0048, 1.0400
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level iii of 3 of (3) develops. Now, the first wave (i) of iii of the lower level has formed, and the local correction (ii) of iii has ended, which has reached the correctional level 62%. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the level of 1.0400 and higher. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.0048.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.0048 with the target at 1.0400. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.0048 will let the pair go down to the levels of 0.9894–0.9712.

AUD/USD: wave analysis 21 May 2019, 09:31

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.6872
Take Profit 0.6832, 0.6800
Stop Loss 0.6905
Key Levels 0.6800, 0.6832, 0.6956, 0.7072, 0.7205
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6960
Take Profit 0.7072, 0.7205
Stop Loss 0.6900
Key Levels 0.6800, 0.6832, 0.6956, 0.7072, 0.7205
The pair may fall.
On the 4-hour chart, the upward correction of the higher level develops as the wave 2 of (5), within which the wave b of 2 forms. Now, the wave (c) of b is developing, within which the wave iii of (c) is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the levels of 0.6832–0.6800. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6956.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 0.6956 with the targets at 0.6832–0.6800. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 0.6956 will let the pair grow to the levels of 0.7072–0.7205.

EUR/USD: general review 21 May 2019, 09:30

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.1148
Take Profit 1.1270
Stop Loss 1.1120
Key Levels 1.1100, 1.1120, 1.1219, 1.1270
Current trend
EUR is slightly strengthening against USD. The resistance level is at 1.1219, and if the pair can break it out, the next target will be at the level of 1.1270.
A significant pullback in the trade negotiations between the US and China puts pressure on the US currency. Last Friday, Washington officially raised duties on Chinese imports in the amount of about USD 200 billion. Beijing, in turn, intends to introduce response tariffs in the amount of USD 60 billion from June 1. US Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said he plans to visit China to continue negotiations, but the representatives of China do not think it will help. Thus, the situation has become much more complicated and the leaders of the two countries are unlikely to be able to sign a favorable agreement at the G20 summit, which will be held in June. According to preliminary estimates by the IMF, the American economy may lose 0.3–0.6% during the trade war with China.
Today, the important economic releases include Consumer Confidence index in the euro area, as well as Existing Home Sales in the United States.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is at 43 points and does not provide any signals for the opening of transactions.
Resistance levels: 1.1219, 1.1270.
Support levels: 1.1120, 1.1100.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with take profit at 1.1270 and stop loss at 1.1120.

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