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USD/CAD: technical analysis 16 July 2019, 11:19

USD/CAD: technical analysis 16 July 2019, 11:19 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 1.303...

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Jul 16, 2019

USD/CAD: technical analysis 16 July 2019, 11:19

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3037
Take Profit 1.2988
Stop Loss 1.3070
Key Levels 1.2988, 1.3018, 1.3037, 1.3073, 1.3097, 1.3112, 1.3145
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3073
Take Profit 1.3140
Stop Loss 1.3040
Key Levels 1.2988, 1.3018, 1.3037, 1.3073, 1.3097, 1.3112, 1.3145
USD/CAD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument trades within the sideways channel formed by the borders of Bollinger bands, the indicator cloud is narrowed. The MACD histogram is in the negative area, the sell signal weakens. Stochastic crosses the overbought zone upwards, the signal for opening long positions remains.

USD/CAD, D1
On the daily chart, the downward trend is still in force. The instrument trades between the middle line and the lower border of Bollinger bands, the indicator cloud is greatly expanded. The MACD histogram is in the negative area, keeping a strong signal to open sell orders. Stochastic is in the neutral zone on the border with the oversold zone, the signal line of the oscillator is pointed downwards.

Key levels
Resistance levels: 1.3073, 1.3097, 1.3112, 1.3145.
Support levels: 1.3037, 1.3018, 1.2988.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3037 with the target at 1.2988 and stop loss 1.3070.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3073 with the target at 1.3140. Stop loss is 1.3040.
Implementation period: 1–3 days.

USD/CHF: USD is correcting 16 July 2019, 09:52

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.9865, 0.9880
Take Profit 0.9930, 0.9960
Stop Loss 0.9840, 0.9820
Key Levels 0.9737, 0.9775, 0.9800, 0.9833, 0.9860, 0.9907, 0.9930, 0.9960
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9830
Take Profit 0.9775, 0.9750, 0.9737
Stop Loss 0.9875
Key Levels 0.9737, 0.9775, 0.9800, 0.9833, 0.9860, 0.9907, 0.9930, 0.9960
Current trend
The US dollar showed correctional growth against the Swiss franc on Monday, departing from the updated local lows of July 1. The reason for the emergence of positive dynamics was ambiguous macroeconomic data from China, which indicated a slowdown in YoY GDP to a 27-year low, but also reflected a sharp increase in industrial output and retail sales. Additional support for the dollar was provided by the published New York Fed Manufacturing PMI. In July, the indicator rose from −8.6 to 4.3 points, with a forecast of growth only to 2.0 points.
Published statistics from Switzerland was negative and also contributed to the development of positive dynamics in the instrument. The producer and import price index in June showed a decrease of 0.5% MoM and 1.4% YoY, which was noticeably worse than market expectations of 0.0% MoM and −0.9% YoY.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous dynamics in the short term. MACD is going down preserving a weak sell signal (being located under the signal line). Stochastic is declining, approaching its minima, which indicates the development of corrective growth in the ultra-short term.
There's a possibility of a correctional growth in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.9860, 0.9907, 0.9930, 0.9960.
Support levels: 0.9833, 0.9800, 0.9775, 0.9737.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.9860–0.9875. Take profit – 0.9930 or 0.9960. Stop loss – 0.9840–0.9820.
A rebound from 0.9860, as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.9833, may become a signal for returning to the sales with the target at 0.9775 or 0.9750–0.9737. Stop loss – 0.9875.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

XAU/USD: gold prices are consolidating 16 July 2019, 09:43

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1426.95
Take Profit 1455.00
Stop Loss 1410.00
Key Levels 1347.94, 1357.90, 1381.50, 1400.60, 1426.91, 1439.11, 1455.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1400.55
Take Profit 1370.00, 1357.90
Stop Loss 1420.00
Key Levels 1347.94, 1357.90, 1381.50, 1400.60, 1426.91, 1439.11, 1455.00
Current trend
Yesterday, gold prices traded in different directions, responding to the publication of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from China. The quotes were supported by steady growth in industrial output, while a negative factor was the slowdown in China’s GDP in annual terms to 27-year lows. Growth in demand for commodity assets is also due to expectations of the Fed’s interest rates decrease at the end of this month.
Today, investors are awaiting the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics on retail sales and industrial production, which may clarify the prospects for a rate cut at the next meeting of the regulator. Tomorrow, the Fed will publish a monthly economic review, the so-called Beige book.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving flat. The price range is almost unchanged, indicating an ambiguous trend in the short term. The MACD indicator is falling, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic keeps an uncertain upward direction, approaching its highs again.
To open new trading positions, it is better to wait for the clarification of signals from the technical indicators.
Resistance levels: 1426.91, 1439.11, 1455.00.
Support levels: 1400.60, 1381.50, 1357.90, 1347.94.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1426.91 with the target at 1455.00. Stop loss is 1410.00.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1400.60 with the target at 1370.00 or 1357.90. Stop loss is 1420.00.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

AUD/USD: AUD is growing 16 July 2019, 09:42

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.7050
Take Profit 0.7100
Stop Loss 0.7021
Key Levels 0.6955, 0.6984, 0.7000, 0.7021, 0.7046, 0.7072, 0.7100
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.7015
Take Profit 0.6955, 0.6933
Stop Loss 0.7046, 0.7060
Key Levels 0.6955, 0.6984, 0.7000, 0.7021, 0.7046, 0.7072, 0.7100
Current trend
The Australian dollar continues to grow steadily against the US one, updating local highs since July 4. Monday's macroeconomic statistics from China provided strong support to AUD. The data indicated a sharp increase in industrial output in June from 5.0% to 6.3% YoY, with a forecast of 5.2% YoY. China's quarterly GDP accelerated from 1.4% to 1.6% (forecast 1.5% QoQ). YoY, as analysts had expected, GDP slowed down from 6.4% to 6.2%.
Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers on the market. Investors are focused on the protocol of the RBA meeting of July 2, at which the regulator decided to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.00%.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range expands from above, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls". MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic retains a steadily upward direction but is located in close proximity to its maximum values, which indicates the overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.
One should keep existing long positions until clarification. The opening of new purchases should be put on hold.
Resistance levels: 0.7046, 0.7072, 0.7100.
Support levels: 0.7021, 0.7000, 0.6984, 0.6955.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.7046. Take-profit – 0.7100. Stop loss – 0.7021.
A rebound from 0.7046, as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.7021, may become a signal for returning to the sales with the target at 0.6955 or 0.6933. Stop loss – 0.7046–0.7060.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

ATT Inc.: wave analysis 16 July 2019, 09:39

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 33.70
Take Profit 35.13, 36.37
Stop Loss 33.19
Key Levels 28.81, 30.36, 33.19, 35.13, 36.37
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 33.10
Take Profit 30.36, 28.81
Stop Loss 34.05
Key Levels 28.81, 30.36, 33.19, 35.13, 36.37
The trend is upward.
On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) develops, within which the wave iii of 1 of (3) forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii of 1 is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 35.13–36.37. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 33.19.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 33.19 with the targets at 35.13–36.37. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 33.19 will let the price go down to the levels of 30.36–28.81.

Intel Corp.: wave analysis 16 July 2019, 09:37

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 50.11
Take Profit 51.28, 53.25
Stop Loss 49.50
Key Levels 42.71, 46.99, 51.28, 53.25
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 46.90
Take Profit 42.71
Stop Loss 48.30
Key Levels 42.71, 46.99, 51.28, 53.25
The price may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the third wave (3) of the higher level developed, and the downward correction forms as the wave (4). Now, the downward momentum within the wave A of (4) has formed, and the upward local correction of the lower level B of (4) is developing, within which the wave a of B has formed, the wave b of B has ended, and the wave c of B is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 51.28–53.25. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 46.99.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 46.99 with the targets at 51.28–53.25. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 46.99 will let the price go down to the level of 42.71.

GBP/USD: wave analysis 16 July 2019, 09:36

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.2515
Take Profit 1.2650, 1.2780
Stop Loss 1.2438
Key Levels 1.2241, 1.2361, 1.2438, 1.2650, 1.2780
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2430
Take Profit 1.2361, 1.2241
Stop Loss 1.2465
Key Levels 1.2241, 1.2361, 1.2438, 1.2650, 1.2780
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave (2), within which the wave C of (2) formed as a momentum. Now, the development of the third wave (3) is beginning, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (3) has formed, and the correction (ii) of i is ending. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2650–1.2780. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.2438.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.2438 with the targets at 1.2650–1.2780. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.2438 will let the pair go down to the levels of 1.2361–1.2241.

EUR/USD: wave analysis 16 July 2019, 09:36

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.1261
Take Profit 1.1328, 1.1413
Stop Loss 1.1195
Key Levels 1.1000, 1.1100, 1.1191, 1.1328, 1.1413
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.1185
Take Profit 1.1100, 1.1000
Stop Loss 1.1245
Key Levels 1.1000, 1.1100, 1.1191, 1.1328, 1.1413
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the first entry wave 1 of (1) of 3 formed as a diverging diagonal triangle, and the correction 2 of (1) of 3 ended. Now, the development of the third wave 3 of (1) has begun, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 3 has formed, and the correction (ii) of i of 3 has ended. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.1328–1.1413. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1191.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.1191 with the targets at 1.1328–1.1413. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1191 will let the pair go down to the levels of 1.1100–1.1000.

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