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USD/JPY: general analysis 17 October 2018, 12:42

USD/JPY: general analysis 17 October 2018, 12:42 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation SELL Entry Point 112.23 ...

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Oct 17, 2018

USD/JPY: general analysis 17 October 2018, 12:42


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 112.23
Take Profit 111.65
Stop Loss 112.50
Key Levels 111.62, 111.82, 111.98, 112.07, 112.54, 112.81, 113.39, 113.55, 113.95
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 112.55
Take Profit 113.39
Stop Loss 112.20
Key Levels 111.62, 111.82, 111.98, 112.07, 112.54, 112.81, 113.39, 113.55, 113.95
Current trend
On Tuesday, the pair USD/JPY strengthened. As there was a lack of significant economic releases from Japan, JPY was trading under the influence of US and European news. Japanese investors continue to monitor trade negotiations with the United States. The country wants its automobiles and industrial goods to have a wide access to the American market in exchange for expanding imports of American agricultural products. As for the proposals of the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to include the currency clause in a bilateral trade agreement, the Japanese Minister of Economy Toshimitsu Motegi said that so far there had been no such negotiations.
The key event of the day for the pair will be FOMC Meeting Minutes publication at 20:00 (GMT+2), high volatility is expected on the market. Also, investors should pay attention to US Housing Starts release at 14:30 (GMT+2).
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument decreases after correction, the pair is trading between the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger bands, the price range is narrowed. MACD histogram is in the negative region, the signal line is directed upwards.
Resistance levels: 112.54, 112.81, 113.39, 113.55, 113.95.
Support levels: 112.07, 111.98, 111.82, 111.62.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 111.65 and stop loss at 112.50.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 112.55 with the target at 113.39 and stop loss at 112.20.
Implementation period: 1–3 days.

Boeing Co.: wave analysis 17 October 2018, 09:47


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 368.24
Take Profit 400.00, 410.00
Stop Loss 351.80
Key Levels 327.19, 337.68, 351.80, 400.00, 410.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 351.70
Take Profit 337.68, 327.19
Stop Loss 356.40
Key Levels 327.19, 337.68, 351.80, 400.00, 410.00
The price can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the local correction of the higher level formed as a fourth wave (4), shaped as a triangle, and the fifth wave (5) develops. Now the third wave of the lower level 3 of (5) has formed, and the correctional wave 4 of (5) has developed. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 400.00–410.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 351.80.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 351.80 with the targets at 400.00–410.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 351.80 will let the price go down to the levels of 337.68–327.19.

American Express Co.: wave analysis 17 October 2018, 09:44


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 104.30
Take Profit 111.70
Stop Loss 101.41
Key Levels 90.00, 95.30, 101.41, 111.70
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 101.35
Take Profit 95.30, 90.00
Stop Loss 103.40
Key Levels 90.00, 95.30, 101.41, 111.70
The price can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the fifth wave of the higher level 5 of (5) of A forms. Now the third wave of the lower level iii of 5 has formed, and the local correction iv of 5 has ended. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the level of 111.70. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 101.41.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 101.41 with the target at 111.70. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 101.41 will let the price go down to the levels of 95.30–90.00.

GBP/USD: wave analysis 17 October 2018, 09:41


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.3179
Take Profit 1.3311
Stop Loss 1.3077
Key Levels 1.2914, 1.3077, 1.3311
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3070
Take Profit 1.2914
Stop Loss 1.3125
Key Levels 1.2914, 1.3077, 1.3311
The pair can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the downward correction of the higher level developed as a wave (2), and the development of the third wave (3) began. Now the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming, within which the wave (v) of I is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the level of 1.3311. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3077.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.3077 with the target at 1.3311. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3077 will let the pair go down to the level of 1.2914.

EUR/USD: wave analysis 17 October 2018, 09:39


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.1565
Take Profit 1.1813, 1.1940
Stop Loss 1.1430
Key Levels 1.3000, 1.1370, 1.1430, 1.1813, 1.1940
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.1425
Take Profit 1.1370, 1.3000
Stop Loss 1.1475
Key Levels 1.3000, 1.1370, 1.1430, 1.1813, 1.1940
The pair can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the upward correction develops as a wave B of (2). Now the wave b of B has developed, and the development of the wave c of B has begun, within which the entry wave of the lower level (i) of c has formed. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction (ii) of c the pair will grow to the levels of 1.1813–1.1940. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1430.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.1430 with the targets at 1.1813–1.1940. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1430 will let the pair go down to the levels of 1.1370–1.3000.

AUD/USD: Australian dollar is strengthening 17 October 2018, 09:28


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.7155
Take Profit 0.7200, 0.7234
Stop Loss 0.7120, 0.7110
Key Levels 0.7039, 0.7068, 0.7100, 0.7130, 0.7150, 0.7175, 0.7200, 0.7234
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.7125
Take Profit 0.7068, 0.7039
Stop Loss 0.7160
Key Levels 0.7039, 0.7068, 0.7100, 0.7130, 0.7150, 0.7175, 0.7200, 0.7234
Current trend
AUD continues growing moderately against USD, updating local highs of October 3. The reason for the development of "bullish" dynamics of the instrument is in technical factors, as well as in the overall decline in risk-taking interest of traders amid worsening US relations with China and Saudi Arabia.
On Tuesday, the RBA meeting minutes were published but they did not disclose anything new to investors. RBA officials noted the acceleration of GDP due to an increase in investment in subsoil use and consumption growth, employment growth, and a decrease in unemployment. The current policy of the regulator will continue to support the Australian economy; there are no convincing arguments for raising interest rates.
Today, the pair is trading in both directions, waiting for new drivers. The published MI Leading Index was worse than analysts' expectations and fell by 0.1% MoM against 0.0% MoM in the previous month.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a gradual decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the flat dynamics of trading in the medium term. MACD indicator is growing keeping a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps its upward direction but is approaching its maximum levels, which reflects the overbought AUD in the ultra-short term.
Existing long positions should be kept until the situation clears up.
Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7175, 0.7200, 0.7234.
Support levels: 0.7130, 0.7100, 0.7068, 0.7039.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.7150. Take profit — 0.7200 or 0.7234. Stop loss — 0.7120 or 0.7110. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
The rebound from 0.7150 as from resistance with the subsequent breakdown of 0.7130 can become a signal to begin correctional sales with target at 0.7068 or 0.7039. Stop loss — 0.7160. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

Oct 16, 2018

Altria Group Inc.: wave analysis 16 October 2018, 09:57


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 61.44
Take Profit 71.68, 74.46
Stop Loss 59.40
Key Levels 53.88, 59.40, 71.68, 74.46
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 59.35
Take Profit 53.88
Stop Loss 61.20
Key Levels 53.88, 59.40, 71.68, 74.46
The price can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the large downward correction developed as a wave (2) of the higher level, and the development of the third wave (3) has begun. Now the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) has formed, and the downward correction developed as a wave ii of 1, shaped as an irregular flat. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 71.68–74.46 within the wave iii of 1. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 59.40.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 59.40 with the targets at 71.68–74.46. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 59.40 will let the price go down to the level of 53.88 and below.

McDonald’s Corp.: wave analysis 16 October 2018, 09:53


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 163.63
Take Profit 178.80, 190.00
Stop Loss 156.35
Key Levels 144.34, 156.35, 178.80, 190.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 156.30
Take Profit 144.34
Stop Loss 160.30
Key Levels 144.34, 156.35, 178.80, 190.00
The price can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the correction of the higher level developed as a fourth wave 4, shaped as a triangle. Locally the development of the fifth wave 5 of (3) has begun, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of 5 has formed, and the local correction ii of 5 has ended. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 178.80–190.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 156.35.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 156.35 with the targets at 178.80–190.00. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 156.35 will let the price go down to the level of 144.34.

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