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EUR/USD: general analysis 16 August 2019, 14:11

EUR/USD: general analysis 16 August 2019, 14:11 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL Entry Point 1.1076 Tak...

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Aug 16, 2019

EUR/USD: general analysis 16 August 2019, 14:11

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 1.1076
Take Profit 1.1047, 1.1016
Stop Loss 1.1095
Key Levels 1.1016, 1.1016, 1.1078, 1.1108, 1.1138, 1.1169
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.1110
Take Profit 1.1138, 1.1169
Stop Loss 1.1090
Key Levels 1.1016, 1.1016, 1.1078, 1.1108, 1.1138, 1.1169
Current trend
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair was corrected to two-week lows around ​​1.1078 (Murrey [3/8]). Comments by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard and US President Donald Trump supported USD. Bullard in an interview with Fox Business News noted that the inverted yield curve should remain for a certain period to be taken as a “bearish” signal. President Trump, after threats by the PRC authorities to retaliate for the introduction of new US tariffs, said that the US-PRC trade would be relatively short since China still wanted to conclude the deal. JP Morgan experts predict a 40% chance of a global recession in the next 6–9 months is China and the United States fail to agree.
During the day, July data from the US construction market will be released. Building Permits may increase from 1.232 to 1.270 million, and Housing Starts may increase from 1.253 to 1.257 million. The implementation of forecasts may additionally support USD.
Support and resistance
The price tests 1.1078 (Murrey [3/8]) and may fall to 1.1047 (Murrey [2/8]), 1.1016 (Murrey [1/8]). The upward correction is possible after a breakout of 1.1108 (Murrey [0/8]) and the price’s return to the positive zone of Murrey trading range. It can rise to 1.1138 (Murrey [5/8], Bollinger bands’ midline), 1.1170 (Murrey [6/8]). However, it seems less likely, as indicators reflect a decline. Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed downwards. The MACD increases in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 1.1108, 1.1138, 1.1169.
Support levels: 1.1078, 1.1047, 1.1016.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below 1.1078 with the targets at 1.1047, 1.1016. Stop loss – 1.1095.
Long positions can be opened after consolidation above 1.1108 with the targets at 1.1138, 1.1169. Stop loss – 1.1090.
Implementation period: 4–5 days.

USD/CAD: technical analysis 16 August 2019, 11:10

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 1.3305
Take Profit 1.3225, 1.3185
Stop Loss 1.3345
Key Levels 1.3145, 1.3185, 1.3225, 1.3345, 1.3445, 1.3465
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3345
Take Profit 1.3445, 1.3465
Stop Loss 1.3295
Key Levels 1.3145, 1.3185, 1.3225, 1.3345, 1.3445, 1.3465
USD/CAD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is about to test from above its longer MA. The Composite is breaking down its longer MA, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

USD/CAD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with the SMA200 and just above the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that start turning up. The RSI is forming a Bearish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels
Support levels: 1.3225 (local lows), 1.3185 (local lows), 1.3145 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 1.3345 (local highs), 1.3445 (local highs), 1.3465 (March highs).
Trading tips
There is a chance of a downward correction.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1.3225, 1.3185 and stop-loss at 1.3345. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3345 with targets at 1.3445, 1.3465 and stop-loss at 1.3295. Validity – 3-5 days.

Brent Crude Oil: general analysis 16 August 2019, 09:33

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 58.96
Take Profit 61.40
Stop Loss 57.50
Key Levels 56.10, 57.71, 59.55, 61.40
Current trend
Oil prices are falling. One of the reasons for the fall of "black gold" is associated with a slowdown in the global economy. Thus, statistics from China reflected an unexpected record drop in industrial production by 4.8% against the forecast of 5.8%, the last time such data were recorded 17 years ago. Investors were also disappointed with the German GDP, which has declined in the second quarter.
The second factor, which also negatively affected quotes, was the publication of data on commercial US oil reserves, which grew by 1.58 million barrels against the forecast of –2.78 million barrels. As for the total oil production, it remained at the same level of 12.3 million barrels per day. If the trend continues, it is possible that OPEC may intervene in order to balance the market by reducing energy production.
Today, traders will focus on data on the number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is around 23 points and does not give signals for opening positions.
Resistance levels: 59.55, 61.40.
Support levels: 57.71, 56.10.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 61.40 and stop loss 57.50.

American Express Co.: wave analysis 16 August 2019, 09:24

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 122.35
Take Profit 113.90, 108.08
Stop Loss 129.40
Key Levels 108.08, 113.90, 129.40, 135.00, 140.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 129.45
Take Profit 135.00, 140.00
Stop Loss 127.60
Key Levels 108.08, 113.90, 129.40, 135.00, 140.00
The price may fall.
On the 4-hour chart, the wave A of the higher level developed, within which the wave 5 of (5) formed. Now, the development of a downward correction of the higher level as the wave B is beginning, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (A) of B is forming as a widening diagonal. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 113.90–108.08. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 129.40.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 129.40 with the targets at 113.90–108.08. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 129.40 will let the price grow to the levels of 135.00–140.00.

Boeing Co.: wave analysis 16 August 2019, 09:21

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 327.91
Take Profit 292.93, 253.61
Stop Loss 357.90
Key Levels 253.61, 292.93, 381.96, 417.00, 445.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 382.00
Take Profit 417.00, 445.00
Stop Loss 370.00
Key Levels 253.61, 292.93, 381.96, 417.00, 445.00
The price may fall.
On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 developed, and the formation of the downward correction as the wave 4 began. Now, the wave (A) of 4 is developing, within which the fifth wave of the lower level 5 of (A) is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 292.93–253.61. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 381.96.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 381.96 with the targets at 292.93–253.61. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 381.96 will let the price grow to the levels of 417.00–445.00.

USD/CHF: wave analysis 16 August 2019, 09:18

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 0.9786
Take Profit 0.9838, 0.9871
Stop Loss 0.9750
Key Levels 0.9556, 0.9705, 0.9838, 0.9871
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9700
Take Profit 0.9556
Stop Loss 0.9760
Key Levels 0.9556, 0.9705, 0.9838, 0.9871
The pair is in a correction and may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level iii of 3 of (3) develops, within which the first wave (i) of iii formed. Now, an upward correction is developing as the wave (ii) of iii, within which the wave c of (ii) is forming. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.9838–0.9871. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9705.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 0.9705 with the targets at 0.9838–0.9871. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 0.9705 will let the pair go down to the level of 0.9556.

AUD/USD: wave analysis 16 August 2019, 09:18

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 0.6787
Take Profit 0.7080, 0.7205
Stop Loss 0.6674
Key Levels 0.6544, 0.6674. 0.7080, 0.7205
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.6670
Take Profit 0.6544
Stop Loss 0.6730
Key Levels 0.6544, 0.6674. 0.7080, 0.7205
The pair may grow.
On the daily chart, a correction of the higher level develops as the second wave 2 of (5), within which the wave b of 2 formed. Now, the development of the wave c of 2 is beginning, within which the first entry wave of the lower level i of (i) of c and the correction ii of (i) have formed. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 0.7080–0.7205. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.6674.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 0.6674 with the targets at 0.7080–0.7205. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 0.6674 will let the pair go down to the level of 0.6544.

Aug 15, 2019

GBP/USD: general analysis 15 August 2019, 14:59

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL LIMIT
Entry Point 1.2200, 1.2270
Take Profit 1.2015, 1.1885, 1.1850
Stop Loss 1.2330
Key Levels 1.1800, 1.1850, 1.1885, 1.1930, 1.2000, 1.2015, 1.2110, 1.2210, 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2400, 1.2500, 1.2560, 1.2655
Current trend
The GBP/USD pair has maintained a downward trend and has lost more than 400 points in the last two and a half trading weeks. Having reached the lower border of the channel at the level of 1.2015, the price reversed to corrective growth. Over the past few days, it has already gained about 100 points and is trading near a strong resistance level of 1.2110. The growth of the instrument is due to the closing of a large volume of profitable short positions at local lows. The pound received additional support on the strong data on British retail sales, which were published in the first half of Thursday.
Today, special attention should be paid to a number of American data: statistics on the labor market, retail sales, industrial production, and key indices.
Support and resistance
Strong data on the main sectors of the US economy can contribute to the next testing and breakdown of the level of 1.2015. But this is an alternative scenario in the medium term, and the main forecast is the formation of a sideways consolidation channel with a subsequent upward impulse to its upper border at the level of 1.2270, from which a downward wave to new local lows of 1.1885, 1.1850 will form.
On the daily chart and above, the technical indicators confirm the forecast for the decline, the volumes of short MACD positions are growing, and Bollinger bands are directed downwards.
Resistance levels: 1.2210, 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2400, 1.2500, 1.2560, 1.2655.
Support levels: 1.2110, 1.2015, 1.2000, 1.1930, 1.1885, 1.1850, 1.1800.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the levels of 1.2200, 1.2270 with the targets at 1.2015, 1.1885, 1.1850 and stop loss 1.2330.

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