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NZD/USD: downward correction and a new rising wave 12 November 2018, 13:51

NZD/USD: downward correction and a new rising wave 12 November 2018, 13:51 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation BUY ...

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Nov 12, 2018

NZD/USD: downward correction and a new rising wave 12 November 2018, 13:51


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 0.6727
Take Profit 0.7020, 0.7050
Stop Loss 0.6570
Key Levels 0.6400, 0.6420, 0.6500, 0.6545, 0.6600, 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6725, 0.6770, 0.6790, 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6905, 0.6950, 0.6970
Current trend
In early November, the NZD/USD pair left the long-term downward trend, breaking through the upper border of the downward range. Later, the price grew steadily due to the increased demand for the oversold NZD and New Zealand's strong labor market data.
The instrument decorrelates against the other dollar pairs, which indicates the growth of the New Zealand currency rate itself against the strong USD. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintains a cautious approach to monetary policy but notes a high probability of increasing economic growth rates at the end of this and early next year. At the end of last trading week, the pair began a downward correction due to positive US releases and a change in trading sentiment. In the short term, USD will dominate, and the pair will be corrected further. In the future, the upward trend will develop to the targets of 0.7020, 0.7050.
Today is an official day off in the USA, and no high volatility is expected. On Wednesday, statistics on US inflation will be published, and on Thursday there will be data on retail sales, industrial production, and the labor market.
Support and resistance
The trend has changed, and now it is better to open long positions within the current channel. Technical indicators also changed the signal to the upward one: the volumes of MACD long positions increased significantly, Bollinger bands are directed upwards.
Resistance levels: 0.6725, 0.6770, 0.6790, 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6905, 0.6950, 0.6970.
Support levels: 0.6700, 0.6650, 0.6600, 0.6545, 0.6500, 0.6420, 0.6400.

Trading tips
It is better to increase the volumes of long positions from the current level with the targets at 0.7020, 0.7050 and stop loss at 0.6570.

WTI Сrude Oil: Murray levels analysis 12 November 2018, 12:51


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 59.30
Take Profit 57.81, 56.25
Stop Loss 60.00
Key Levels 56.25, 57.81, 59.37, 62.50, 64.06, 65.62
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 62.55
Take Profit 64.06, 65.62
Stop Loss 62.00
Key Levels 56.25, 57.81, 59.37, 62.50, 64.06, 65.62
Current trend
On the daily chart, the price tested the level of 59.37 ([3/8]) and attempted an upward correction. The targets may be at the levels of 62.50 ([4/8]), 64.06 ([5/8], H4) and 65.62 ([5/8], the middle line of the Bollinger Bands). The possibility of continued growth is confirmed by the reversal of the Stochastic in the oversold zone. However, in general, the downtrend persists, as indicated by the reversal of the Bollinger bands and the increase of the MACD histogram in the negative zone. The key level for “bears” is 59.37 ([3/8]). Consolidation of the price below it will give the prospect of a decline to the levels of 57.81 ([1/8], H4) and 56.25 ([2/8]). In general, the upward correction within the downtrend seems possible, however, short positions are more preferable.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 59.37, 57.81, 56.25.
Resistance levels: 62.50, 64.06, 65.62.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below 59.37, pending sell orders can be placed at 62.50 with targets at 57.81, 56.25 and stop loss at 60.00 and 63.00, respectively.
Long positions will become relevant when above 62.50. The targets will be at 64.06 and 65.62. Stop loss can be set in the area of ​​62.00.
Implementation time: 4-5 days.

Snap Inc. (SNAP/NYSE): general review 12 November 2018, 12:25


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 7.50
Take Profit 8.25, 8.75, 9.50
Stop Loss 7.25, 6.75
Key Levels 5.85, 6.50, 7.50, 8.75, 9.50
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 6.45
Take Profit 5.25, 4.50
Stop Loss 7.25
Key Levels 5.85, 6.50, 7.50, 8.75, 9.50
Current trend
Snap Inc. decreased by 2.9% after the publication of the financial report for the 3rd quarter of 2018 on October 25. Since the beginning of 2018, the issuer's quotations have decreased by 53.5%. Quarterly loss per share was $0.25 compared to last year’s loss of $0.36. Revenue increased by 43% YoY to $298 million. The number of daily active users fell by 2 million, as expected. At the same time, in the fourth quarter, Snap Inc. management expects further decline.
In the last week of the shares of Snap Inc. decreased by 0.44%. The S&P500 index increased by 2.10% for the same period.
Support and resistance
Shares of the company are traded in the flat. Currently, the key support and resistance levels are: 6.50 and 7.50, respectively. In the near future, a technical correction of the issuer after a prolonged fall is expected. Indicators do not give a clear signal: the price crossed 50 MA; the MACD histogram is near zero level.
A comparative analysis of company multipliers and competing companies in the industry indicates the neutrality of #SNAP.
Support levels: 6.50, 5.85.
Resistance levels: 7.50, 8.75, 9.50.

Trading tips
If the price consolidates above the resistance level of 7.50, a correction in the company's shares is expected. Potential profit levels are 8.25, 8.75 and 9.50. Stop loss is 6.75.
If the price consolidates below 6.50, it is necessary to consider selling #SNAP. Movement potential to 5.25–4.50. Stop loss is 7.25.
Trading scenarios will be relevant for 3 days.

XAU/USD: technical analysis 12 November 2018, 12:15


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 1206.94
Take Profit 1192.75
Stop Loss 1214.00
Key Levels 1182.79, 1192.75, 1198.69, 1203.82, 1214.00, 1217.95, 1223.12, 1227.13, 1235.54, 1243.21
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1227.13
Take Profit 1243.21
Stop Loss 1217.95
Key Levels 1182.79, 1192.75, 1198.69, 1203.82, 1214.00, 1217.95, 1223.12, 1227.13, 1235.54, 1243.21
XAU/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the upward movement is being corrected, the instrument has broken the lower border of Bollinger bands, continuing the decline. MACD histogram is in the positive region, keeping the signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the lines of the oscillator are directed downwards.

XAU/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument decreases along the lower border of Bollinger bands, the price range is expanded, indicating a likely continuation of the downward movement. MACD histogram is in the negative area, gradually increasing its volumes, the signal line crosses the body of the histogram downwards, forming a signal to open short positions. Stochastic moves horizontally along the border with the oversold zone.

Key levels
Resistance levels: 1214.00, 1217.95, 1223.12, 1227.13, 1235.54, 1243.21.
Support levels: 1203.82, 1198.69, 1192.75, 1182.79.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened in the short term from the current level with the target at 1192.75 and stop loss 1214.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1227.13 with the target at 1243.21. Stop loss is 1217.95.
Implementation period: 1–3 days.

SX5E: technical analysis 12 November 2018, 11:41


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 3268.0
Take Profit 3315.0, 3340.0
Stop Loss 3235.0
Key Levels 3100.0, 3180.0, 3205.0, 3268.0, 3315.0, 3340.0
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 3180.0
Take Profit 3100.0
Stop Loss 3205.0
Key Levels 3100.0, 3180.0, 3205.0, 3268.0, 3315.0, 3340.0
SX5E, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is approaching its strong resistance region. The Composite is about to test from above its longer MA.

SX5E, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains slightly below the SMA200, and on the level with the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that turned horizontally. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA. The Composite is showing Bearish dynamics.

Key levels
Support levels: 3205.0 (local lows), 3180.0 (local lows), 3100.0 (October lows).
Resistance levels: 3268.0 (local highs), 3315.0 (local highs), 3340.0 (June lows).
Trading tips
The price is consolidating below a strong resistance near 3268.0. There is a chance of a downward correction, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 3268.0 with targets at 3315.0, 3340.0 and stop-loss at 3235.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 3180.0 with the target at 3100.0 and stop-loss at 3205.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

Bitcoin: technical analysis 12 November 2018, 10:41


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 6325.00
Take Profit 6289.06, 6255.85
Stop Loss 6352.00
Key Levels 6250.00, 6289.06, 6328.13, 6367.19, 6406.25, 6445.31
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 6370.00
Take Profit 6406.25, 6445.31
Stop Loss 6342.00
Key Levels 6250.00, 6289.06, 6328.13, 6367.19, 6406.25, 6445.31
Current trend
Bitcoin quotes was moving within the 6255.85–6524.85 range throughout the week. Currently, the instrument is trading in the middle of the range, near the 6328.13 level corresponding to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators do not give a single signal. Bollinger bands are directed sideways. MACD volumes are declining in the negative zone, indicating an increase in buyers' positions. Stochastic lines are directed upwards, signalling the growth potential. The upward trend may continue after the price consolidates above the level of 6367.19 (Murray [3/8]). In this case, growth will continue to the level of 6406.25 (Murray [4/8]). If the price goes below the level of 6328.13, then the rate will return to the area of ​​6289.06–6255.85.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 6328.13, 6289.06, 6250.00.
Resistance levels: 6367.19, 6406.25, 6445.31.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below 6328.13 with targets in the area of ​​6289.06–6255.85 and a stop loss at 6352.00.
Long positions will become relevant above the level of 6367.19 with targets in the range of 6406.25–6445.31 and a stop loss at 6342.00.

USD/CAD: technical analysis 12 November 2018, 10:37


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.3207
Take Profit 1.3287
Stop Loss 1.3170
Key Levels 1.3048, 1.3070, 1.3086, 1.3105, 1.3130, 1.3170, 1.3220, 1.3232, 1.3287, 1.3351, 1.3386
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3130
Take Profit 1.3050
Stop Loss 1.3170
Key Levels 1.3048, 1.3070, 1.3086, 1.3105, 1.3130, 1.3170, 1.3220, 1.3232, 1.3287, 1.3351, 1.3386
USD/CAD, D1
On the daily chart, the trend is upwards, the pair is trading near the upper border of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the positive area, keeping the signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the lines of the oscillator are directed upwards.

USD/CAD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument grows again after a short-term correction. The pair is trading between the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger bands, the indicator cloud is expanded, reflecting a likely continuation of growth. MACD histogram is in the positive area, the signal line crosses the body of the histogram upwards, forming a signal for opening long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral region, the oscillator lines are directed downwards.

Key levels
Resistance levels: 1.3220, 1.3232, 1.3287, 1.3351, 1.3386.
Support levels: 1.3170, 1.3130, 1.3105, 1.3086, 1.3070, 1.3048.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3287 and stop loss 1.3170. Implementation period: 1–3 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3130 with the target at 1.3050. Stop loss is 1.3170. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

USD/JPY: instrument trades ambiguously 12 November 2018, 10:22


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 114.10
Take Profit 114.30, 114.53
Stop Loss 113.90
Key Levels 113.00, 113.16, 113.37, 113.63, 113.83, 114.07, 114.30, 114.53
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 113.80
Take Profit 113.16, 113.00
Stop Loss 114.07
Key Levels 113.00, 113.16, 113.37, 113.63, 113.83, 114.07, 114.30, 114.53
Current trend
On Friday, USD fell against the JPY, departing from local highs since October 5, updated the day before.
Investors were generally satisfied with the results of the last Fed meeting. The American regulator left the rate at 2.25%, as expected. In the following statement, it was noted that the US economy and employment were growing at a significant pace, and investment in business accelerated moderately. In this case, the regulator will keep the policy of gradually increasing the rates. Investors expect the next interest rate increase in December and wonder how may increases will be the next year. The experts suggest that if the US economy will grow at the same pace, the rate can grow 3 times in 2019.
During today’s morning’s session, the instrument strengthens again, regaining Friday's losses. As there is a lack of key releases today, USD may moderately grow.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily. The price range is expanding, letting the “bulls” renew local highs.
MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic fluctuate in close proximity to its lows, which reflects that USD may be overbought in the super short term.
It is better to keep current long positions until the situation is clear.
Resistance levels: 114.07, 114.30, 114.53.
Support levels: 113.83, 113.63, 113.37, 113.16, 113.00.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 114.07 with the targets at 114.30–114.53. Stop loss is 113.90. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the rebound from 114.07 and the breakdown of 113.83 with the targets at 113.16–113.00. Stop loss is 114.07. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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