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GBP/USD: Mark Carney disappointed investors 20 April 2018, 15:36

GBP/USD: Mark Carney disappointed investors 20 April 2018, 15:36 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL STOP Ent...

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Apr 20, 2018

GBP/USD: Mark Carney disappointed investors 20 April 2018, 15:36

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.4035
Take Profit 1.3960, 1.3916
Stop Loss 1.4080
Key Levels 1.3916, 1.3960, 1.4038, 1.4100, 1.4160, 1.4221
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.4110
Take Profit 1.4160, 1.4221
Stop Loss 1.4070
Key Levels 1.3916, 1.3960, 1.4038, 1.4100, 1.4160, 1.4221
Current trend
On Thursday, after a weak attempt for growth, the pair has been sharply adjusted and is currently trading at around 1.4038.
Investors were disappointed by the comments of the Bank of England's head Mark Carney, who noted that the increase in the interest rate depends on the final deal on Brexit. Carney also noted the weakness of recent data on retail sales and too rapid reduction of inflation. All this has caused investors to doubt that BoE will decide to raise the rate in May, although the probability persists.
Additional pressure on the pound was provided by EU representatives who rejected all proposals of the British party on the Irish border. The question on the border between Northern Ireland, part of the United Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, is now considered the most important in the negotiations. Both parties agree that the physical border should not exist here after Brexit, but they can not decide how to monitor the trade and movement of citizens.
Support and resistance
Currently, the instrument is testing the 1.4038 mark (Murray [3/8]) and, in its breakdown, may continue to decline to the levels of 1.3960-1.3916 (the bottom line of Bollinger Bands, Murray [2/8]). This is confirmed by indicators: Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone. After the breakout of 1.4100 mark (Murray [4/8], H4), the growth can continue to 1.4160 (Murray [4/8]) and 1.4221 (Murray [5/8], H4) marks.
Support levels: 1.4038, 1.3960, 1.3916.
Resistance levels: 1.4100, 1.4160, 1.4221.

Trading tips
Short positions may be opened below the level of 1.4038 with targets at 1.3960, 1.3916 and stop-loss at 1.4080.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 1.4100 with targets at 1.4160, 1.4221 and stop-loss at 1.4070.

AUD/USD: the fall will continue 20 April 2018, 13:38

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.7693
Take Profit 0.7500, 0.7575
Stop Loss 0.7760
Key Levels 0.7500, 0.7530, 0.7575, 0.7610, 0.7650, 0.7700, 0.7740, 0.7770, 0.7800, 0.7835
Current trend
The Australian dollar continues to decline against the US one due to a significant increase in the investment attractiveness of the latter.
It is worth noting that all major competitors are experiencing serious pressure by USD. But not only the growth of the US currency was the main catalyst for the fall of the pair: "the Australian" has significantly dropped in view of the release of negative data on the labor market. Despite the projected decline in the unemployment rate, the rate of change in the number of employed fell sharply, and on this wave, the pair went down.
Today, the downward momentum has only intensified, and by the end of this week, there is a high probability of its retention due to the lack of key releases in the US and the movement of the pair on trade sentiments, which now support the US currency.
Support and resistance
The pair remains in the medium-term downward channel, and the rebound from the upper limit of this trend (0.7820) was predictable. In the future, the pair will continue to decline to the lower borders of the channel - 0.7610, 0.7575. In the long term, we can expect a decline to a local low of mid-December - the level of 0.7500.
Technical indicators confirm the fall outlook: MACD indicates the growth of volumes of short positions, and Bollinger Bands have reversed downwards.
Support levels: 0.7650, 0.7610, 0.7575, 0.7530, 0.7500.
Resistance levels: 0.7700, 0.7740, 0.7770, 0.7800, 0.7835.

Trading tips
In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 0.7500, 0.7575 and stop-loss at 0.7760.

USD/CHF: technical analysis 20 April 2018, 11:11

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.9716
Take Profit 0.9660, 0.9645
Stop Loss 0.9745
Key Levels 0.9615, 0.9645, 0.9660, 0.9745, 0.9770, 0.9845
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.9770
Take Profit 0.9845
Stop Loss 0.9740
Key Levels 0.9615, 0.9645, 0.9660, 0.9745, 0.9770, 0.9845
USD/CHF, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is growing along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is testing the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is testing its strong resistance as well.

USD/CHF, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is leaving the overbought zone, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels
Support levels: 0.9660 (local lows), 0.9645 (local lows), 0.9615 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 0.9745 (December 2017 lows), 0.9770 (August 2017 highs), 0.9845 (January highs).
Trading tips
The price is approaching a strong resistance near 0.9745. There is a chance of a downward reverse.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.9660, 0.9645 and stop-loss at 0.9745. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.9770 with the target at 0.9845 and stop-loss at 0.9740. Validity – 3-5 days.

NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar is going down 20 April 2018, 10:35

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.7241
Take Profit 0.7300
Stop Loss 0.7215
Key Levels 0.7186, 0.7200, 0.7222, 0.7241, 0.7261, 0.7278, 0.7300, 0.7321
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.7230, 0.7225
Take Profit 0.7200, 0.7180
Stop Loss 0.7270
Key Levels 0.7186, 0.7200, 0.7222, 0.7241, 0.7261, 0.7278, 0.7300, 0.7321
Current trend
Yesterday NZD was actively decreasing against USD and renewed the minimum since April 6. However, in the morning the instrument strengthened, supported by New Zealand consumer inflation release. 2018 Q1 index grew by 0.5% QoQ and 1.1% YoY, as analysts expected.
Thursday’s preliminary US employment market data were worse than expected. Initial Jobless Claims number grew by 232K (instead of 230K suggested). Continuing Jobless Claims number also increased above the expectations: by 1.863 million (instead of 1.848 million). USD is under pressure due to USA-China trade war.
Tomorrow the market is focused on FOMC Members’ Mester and Williams speeches, which can contain hints upon the further monetary policy.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is slightly narrowing from below, staying quite wide for the current activity level. MACD is going down, keeping quite a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). In addition, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero line. Stochastic is pointed downwards but is close to its lows, which reflects that NZD is overbought in the short term.
It is better to keep current short positions for some time and not to open new ones.
Resistance levels: 0.7261, 0.7278, 0.7300, 0.7321.
Support levels: 0.7241, 0.7222, 0.7200, 0.7186.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the rebound at the level of 0.7241 with the target at 0.7300 and stop loss 0.7215.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels 0.7241–0.7230 with the target at 0.7200 or 0.7180 and stop loss 0.7270.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

EUR/USD: the Euro remains under pressure 20 April 2018, 10:27

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2360
Take Profit 1.2400, 1.2420
Stop Loss 1.2330
Key Levels 1.2235, 1.2257, 1.2289, 1.2312, 1.2357, 1.2395, 1.2420, 1.2444
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2305
Take Profit 1.2257, 1.2235
Stop Loss 1.2340
Key Levels 1.2235, 1.2257, 1.2289, 1.2312, 1.2357, 1.2395, 1.2420, 1.2444
Current trend
EUR showed a decline against USD on Thursday, returning to the levels of April 16.
EUR is affected by the negative March inflation data and cannot consolidate significantly. With lack of key releases the currency is influenced by the US-China trade conflict development and the Middle East situation. If the situation worsens, EUR can grow as a shelter asset.
Today, the pair is trading in mixed directions, waiting for the appearance of new drivers. However, the end of the current trading week does not promise to be saturated with macroeconomic releases, so the pair can maintain a flat sentiment. Traders will focus on a report on consumer inflation in Canada, the Fed's representatives’ speeches, as well as preliminary estimates of the consumer confidence level in the Eurozone. The market will also follow the comments that will be made at the beginning of the IMF meeting.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is narrowing from below, reflecting the mixed dynamics of trading in the short term.
MACD is going down preserving a weak sell signal (histogram is located below the signal line).
Stochastic decreases much more actively and at the moment is rapidly approaching its minimum marks.
At the moment, the indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.2357, 1.2395, 1.2420, 1.2444.
Support levels: 1.2312, 1.2289, 1.2257, 1.2235.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the return of "bullish" trend with the breakout of 1.2357 mark. Take-profit — 1.2400–1.2420. Stop-loss — 1.2330. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
A confident breakdown of the level of 1.2312 may be a signal to further sales with targets at 1.2257 or 1.2235 marks. Stop-loss — 1.2340. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

XAU/USD: general analysis 20 April 2018, 10:08

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY LIMIT
Entry Point 1340.62
Take Profit 1350.00
Stop Loss 1335.94
Key Levels 1335.94, 1340.62, 1350.00, 1355.25
Current trend
Since the opening of Asian trading session, gold is trading in a red zone. Now it is trading at the level of 1345.60, the key support level is 1340.62.
According to experts, the uncertainty upon the Syrian question between USA and Russia is still relevant and is supporting the precious metal. The second stimulating factor is the China-USA trade war, as the protectionist policy is developing. Worth noting, Iranian authorities abandoned USD in favor of EUR to process international transactions, which can affect the dollar negatively.
Analysts suggest that central banks will continue to accumulate the precious metal on accounts. According to IMF, by 2023 US government debt can reach around 117% of the GDP due to the tax reformation. Gold is a shelter asset during the economic shocks, which allows diversifying risks. It can reach the level of 2K per troy ounce, as now it is underpriced.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is at the level of 35 points and does not give a signal to open positions.
Resistance levels: 1350.00, 1355.25.
Support levels: 1340.62, 1335.94.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1340.62 with the target at 1350.00 and stop loss 1335.94.

WTI Crude Oil: oil prices are consolidating 20 April 2018, 10:01

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 68.80
Take Profit 70.00
Stop Loss 68.00
Key Levels 65.81, 66.36, 67.50, 68.00, 68.77, 69.38, 70.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 67.90, 67.45
Take Profit 66.36, 66.00
Stop Loss 68.50, 68.20
Key Levels 65.81, 66.36, 67.50, 68.00, 68.77, 69.38, 70.00
Current trend
The prices for WTI crude oil showed growth on Thursday, noting a new record high. However, the instrument failed to keep its positions, and by the moment of closing of the daily session it had moved to the red zone.
"Black gold" prices are supported by a resumed decline in oil reserves in the US. According to the data by the US Department of Energy, over the previous week oil reserves fell by 1.071 million barrels after an increase of 3.306 million barrels.
Investors today will focus on the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the US over the past week. After the active growth of drilling units’ number to 815 over the past reporting period, some analysts expect a decline.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show stable growth. The price range expands from above, freeing a path to new local highs for the "bulls".
MACD is reversing downwards preserving a buy signal (histogram is located above the signal line).
Stochastic, having retreated from its maximum levels turned to the horizontal plane, which indicates the weakness of corrective sentiments in the short term.
The possibility of the emergence of "bearish" trend in the market in the near future is worth noticing.
Resistance levels: 68.77, 69.38, 70.00.
Support levels: 68.00, 67.50, 66.36, 65.81.


Trading tips
To open long positions one can rely on the breakout of the level of 68.77, while maintaining "bullish" signals from technical indicators. Take-profit – 70.00. Stop-loss – 68.00. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
The return of the "bearish" trend to the market with a breakdown of the level of 68.00 or 67.50 may be an alternative. In this case, the target of the "bears" may be located around 66.36 or 66.00 marks. Stop-loss – 68.50–68.20. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

SPX: general review 20 April 2018, 09:44

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 2674.0
Take Profit 2656.3
Stop Loss 2695.3
Key Levels 2656.3, 2674.8, 2695.3, 2714.8
Current trend 
S&P500 index slightly decreases and trades at around 2690.4. The fall is caused by the Fed's minutes for March.
The regulator mentioned in its report the possibility of a more aggressive increase in the interest rate, as experts believe that the country's economy will gain momentum. Against this background, the yields of treasury bonds are added: the risk premium for 10-year bonds is 2.91%, the next target is 3%. The next meeting of the regulator will be held in early May, the probability of an increase in the rate is at around 43%.
As for the trade war, this week the US is only planning to announce a new list of goods that will be subject to additional duties. A response from China is expected. Also this week, the US President will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe regarding trade consultations.
As for the individual sectors, Apple shares lost a lot of their price (about 2.2%): the nearest target and an important level of support is at the level of USD 150. As for S&P500 index, the nearest support is at the level of 2674.8 and if it is broken down, the next target will be the 4/8 Murray mark or 2656.3.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is at the level of 20 and indicates the possible correction.
Resistance levels: 2695.3, 2714.8.
Support levels: 2674.8, 2656.3.

Trading tips
Open short positions after the breakdown of the support level of 2674.8 with take-profit 2656.3 and stop-loss at 2695.3.

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