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USD/JPY: the pair is growing 20 July 2018, 14:10

USD/JPY: the pair is growing 20 July 2018, 14:10 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation BUY Entry Point 112.41 T...

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Jul 20, 2018

USD/JPY: the pair is growing 20 July 2018, 14:10

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 112.41
Take Profit 114.50, 115.00
Stop Loss 110.90
Key Levels 109.55, 110.00, 110.20, 110.50, 110.85, 111.00, 111.40, 111.75, 112.00, 112.40, 112.85, 113.70, 114.00, 114.50, 115.00, 115.70
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY LIMIT
Entry Point 111.75, 111.40
Take Profit 114.50, 115.00
Stop Loss 110.90
Key Levels 109.55, 110.00, 110.20, 110.50, 110.85, 111.00, 111.40, 111.75, 112.00, 112.40, 112.85, 113.70, 114.00, 114.50, 115.00, 115.70
Current trend
The growth of USD against JPY reversed into a slight correction due to the closing of profitable long positions at key resistance levels. Yesterday, the pair lost more than 100 points and reached 112.00, but today it is regaining losses and moving towards local highs.
Increased interest in USD is due to strong US labor market and index statistics. It is expected that preliminary data on Q2 US GDP will grow to 4%, which will cause a sharp surge of investment interest in the dollar and the pair's growth to new highs. In addition, the dollar is strengthening because of the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy in the near future, and the yen is weakening as a result of maintaining a soft monetary policy.
In the next trading week, traders will focus on data on the growth rates of the economy, the labor market and Durable Goods Orders in the USA.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators confirm the growth forecast to the levels of 114.50, 115.00 in the medium term, MACD long positions volumes are growing, Bollinger bands are directed upwards.
Resistance levels: 112.40, 112.85, 113.70, 114.00, 114.50, 115.00, 115.70.
Support levels: 112.00, 111.75, 111.40, 111.00, 110.85, 110.50, 110.20, 110.00, 109.55.

Trading tips
It is relevant to increase the volumes of long positions from the current level and open pending long positions from 111.75, 111.40 with the targets at 114.50, 115.00 and stop loss 110.90.

3M Co. (MMM/NYSE): general review 20 July 2018, 14:00

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 202.80
Take Profit 206.00, 209.00, 212.00
Stop Loss 200.00
Key Levels 192.00, 198.00, 202.75, 206.50, 212.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 197.90
Take Profit 193.00, 190.00
Stop Loss 201.00
Key Levels 192.00, 198.00, 202.75, 206.50, 212.00
Current trend
Shares of 3M Co. rebounded from the 52-week low of the end of June and strengthened in the first half of July. Next week, on July 24, 3M Co. reported for Q2 2018. Earlier in April, the company lowered its annual growth forecast for Q1 2018, which triggered a drop in the issuer's quotes. In 2018, 3M Co. predicts a decline in organic sales growth to 3-4% from the upper limit of 5% due to reduced demand in some markets, including electronics.
During the last week the stock of 3M Company grew by 1.14%. S&P 500 went up by 0.22% within the same period.
Support and resistance
The stock of the company is showing an ambiguous technical picture. #MMM quotes are consolidating. No single direction tendencies are observed. The issuer has the potential to further resumption. Indicators don't give a clear signal: the price has consolidated below MA (50) and MA (200), and MACD histogram is located near the zero line. Positions are to be opened from key levels.
Comparing company's multiplier with its competitors in the industry, we can say that #MMM shares are neutral.
Support levels: 198.00, 192.00.
Resistance levels: 202.75, 206.50, 212.00.

Trading tips
If the price consolidates above the level of 202.75, correction of #MMM shares is expected. Potential profits should be locked in by orders at 206.00, 209.00 and 212.00. Stop loss will be located at 200.00.
If the price consolidates below the support level of 198.00, one should consider selling the company's stock. The movement potential is aimed in the area of 193.00–190.00. Stop loss — 201.00.
Implementation period: 3 days.

PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL/NASD): general analysis 20 July 2018, 13:52

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 86.90
Take Profit 85.00, 83.00, 82.00
Stop Loss 89.00
Key Levels 81.00, 83.00, 87.00, 89.10
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 89.20
Take Profit 93.00, 94.00
Stop Loss 87.00
Key Levels 81.00, 83.00, 87.00, 89.10
Current trend
At the end of last week, PayPal shares renewed the historic maximum and are now trading near the recent peak. Since the publication of the quarterly report in late April, the instrument has grown by 19%. During the last four quarters, the company has published financial results higher than market expectations, which allowed Wall Street to raise recommendations on the company's shares. The driver of business growth PayPal is new acquisitions, strategic partnership with CaixaBank, Bankia, HSBC and Barclays Bank, as well as expansion to the international market. Next week, July 25, PayPal will publish Q2 financial report.
During the last week, PayPal decreased by 1.96% against the growth of the S&P 500 index by 0.22%.
Support and resistance
At the moment, the issuer is consolidating near historical highs. The price is testing local support and resistance levels 87.00 and 89.10, respectively. In the near future, the correction of the company's shares after prolonged growth is not excluded. The indicators’ signals are ambiguous: the price was fixed above the MA (50) and MA (200); MACD histogram began to decline. It is better to open the positions from the key levels.
The comparative analysis of the indicators of the company and its competitors suggests the neutrality of its share prices.
Resistance levels: 89.10.
Support levels: 87.00, 83.00, 81.00.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidatedis fixed below 87.00. The closing of the profitable positions is possible at the levels of 85.00, 83.00 and 82.00. Stop loss is around 89.00.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 89.10 with the targets at 93.00–94.00. Stop loss is advisable to set at 87.00.
Implementation period: 3 days.

USD/CAD: general review 20 July 2018, 13:28

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 1.3245
Take Profit 1.3200
Stop Loss 1.3277
Key Levels 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3160, 1.3220, 1.3250, 1.3277, 1.3300, 1.3340, 1.3355, 1.3400
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3300
Take Profit 1.3350
Stop Loss 1.3270
Key Levels 1.3050, 1.3080, 1.3100, 1.3130, 1.3160, 1.3220, 1.3250, 1.3277, 1.3300, 1.3340, 1.3355, 1.3400
Current trend
USD strengthened against CAD in view of comments by Fed head Jerome Powell, who spoke on Wednesday before the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, and the Beige Book data. Powell noted that now the balance of the Fed reaches 4.5 trillion dollars, however, the program of bonds redemption proved its effectiveness, and there is no reason to drastically reduce the purchase yet. The process of normalizing the balance can take up to four years. As for the key US economic problems, he named the growth rates of public debt, exceeding the growth of GDP. In general, investors remain confident that the US regulator will raise interest rates this year two more times.
Published on Wednesday evening, Fed's Beige Book reflected a moderate or rapid economic growth in 10 of the 12 US regions, which gave investors the hope of continued sustainable economic growth in the US, even in the face of growing trade disputes.
USD was supported by a decrease in Initial Jobless Claims to 207K. CAD was pressured by a negative impact of ADP employment report.
Today, the market expects data on retail sales in and on the base consumer price index from the BoC. High volatility is expected.
Support and resistance
On the H4 chart, we can see a downward correction. The instrument is trading between the upper and middle lines of Bollinger Bands; the price range is widened. MACD histogram is in the positive area. The signal line is crossing the histogram from below giving a signal to buy.
Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3220, 1.3160, 1.3130, 1.3100, 1.3080, 1.3050.
Resistance levels: 1.3277, 1.3300, 1.3340, 1.3355, 1.3400.

Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3200 and stop loss at 1.3277.
Long positions may be opened from 1.3300 with the target at 1.3350 and stop loss at 1.3270.
Implementation time: 1-3 days.

FTSE: Fibonacci analysis 20 July 2018, 12:06

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 7705.0
Take Profit 7742.5, 7800.0
Stop Loss 7670.0
Key Levels 7477.0, 7550.0, 7625.0, 7660.00, 7670.0, 7695.0, 7742.5, 7800.0
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 7620.0
Take Profit 7550.0, 7477.0
Stop Loss 7660.00
Key Levels 7477.0, 7550.0, 7625.0, 7660.00, 7670.0, 7695.0, 7742.5, 7800.0
On the H4 chart, the price is testing the level of 7695.0 (50.0%), which could not be overcome within a month. If the price is able to consolidate above it, the growth to the level of 7742.5 (61.8%) is possible. Indicators confirm the strength of buyers, indicating the possibility of further growth. Stochastic and Bollinger Bands are reversing upwards. MACD histogram is in the positive zone.
On the D1 chart, the price reversed in the area of 7477.0 (38.2%), broke out the level of 7625.0 (23.6%) and now is directed to the May highs to the level of 7860.0 (0.0%). The price is moving along the line of the ascending correctional Fibo fan (38.2%). The continuation of the growth of quotations is confirmed by Stochastic, which reversed upwards. The key level for the "bears" seems to be 7625.0 (23.6%, center line of Bollinger Bands). Its breakdown could lead the price to the level of 7550.0 (probable intersection with the line of the ascending correctional Fibo fan 50.0%) and 7477.0 (38.2%). However, the decline scenario is still less likely.

Trading tips
Buy positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 7695.0 with targets at 7742.5, 7800.0. Stop loss should be placed at 7670.0.
Sell positions may be opened below 7625.0 with targets at 7550.0, 7477.0 and stop loss at 7660.00.

USD/CHF: technical analysis 20 July 2018, 11:54

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9925
Take Profit 0.9855, 0.9830
Stop Loss 0.9970
Key Levels 0.9830, 0.9855, 0.9925, 1.0055, 1.0100, 1.0160
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.0055
Take Profit 1.0100, 1.0160
Stop Loss 1.0025
Key Levels 0.9830, 0.9855, 0.9925, 1.0055, 1.0100, 1.0160
USD/CHF, D1
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is about to test from above its longer MA. The Composite is testing its longer MA as well.

USD/CHF, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading on the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed up. The RSI is falling, having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is falling as well, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

Key levels
Support levels: 0.9925 (local lows), 0.9855 (local lows), 0.9830 (March 2017 lows).
Resistance levels: 1.0055 (May highs), 1.0100 (April 2017 highs), 1.0160 (March 2017 highs).
Trading tips
The price keeps testing its strong resistance near 1.0055. There is a chance of a downward rebound.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.9925 with targets at 0.9855, 0.9830 and stop-loss at 0.9970. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.0055 with targets at 1.0100, 1.0160 and stop-loss at 1.0025. Validity – 3-5 days.

NZD/USD: the pair shows ambiguous dynamics 20 July 2018, 10:54

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6770
Take Profit 0.6824, 0.6857, 0.6880
Stop Loss 0.6720
Key Levels 0.6650, 0.6686, 0.6712, 0.6760, 0.6788, 0.6824, 0.6857
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.6705, 0.6690
Take Profit 0.6650
Stop Loss 0.6730, 0.6740
Key Levels 0.6650, 0.6686, 0.6712, 0.6760, 0.6788, 0.6824, 0.6857
Current trend
NZD declined against USD on Thursday, returning to local lows of the beginning of the week.
USD was supported by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who spoke on Wednesday at the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, and by the Beige Book data. Powell noted that now the balance of the Fed reaches 4.5 trillion dollars, however, the program of bonds redemption proved its effectiveness, and there is no reason to drastically reduce the purchase yet. The process of normalizing the balance can take up to four years. As for the key US economic problems, he named the growth rates of public debt, exceeding the growth of GDP. In general, investors remain confident that the US regulator will raise interest rates this year two more times.
Published on Wednesday evening, Fed's Beige Book reflected a moderate economic growth in 10 of the 12 US regions, which gave investors the hope of continued sustainable economic growth in the US, even in the face of growing trade disputes.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart grow insignificantly. The price range narrows, reflecting ambiguous trading dynamics. MACD reverses downwards forming a new sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic reversed downwards after an increase earlier this week.
Current technical indicators remain uninformative. One should wait for clarification of the situation.
Resistance levels: 0.6760, 0.6788, 0.6824, 0.6857.
Support levels: 0.6712, 0.6686, 0.6650.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.6760. Take profit — 0.6824 or 0.6857, 0.6880. Stop loss — 0.6720.
The return of "bearish" trend with the breakdown of 0.6712 or 0.6700 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 0.6650. Stop loss — 0.6730 or 0.6740.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

XAG/USD: silver prices decline 20 July 2018, 10:36

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 15.38
Take Profit 15.83
Stop Loss 15.09
Key Levels 14.77, 14.92, 15.09, 15.30, 15.46, 15.60, 15.83, 16.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 15.05, 14.95
Take Profit 14.77, 14.50
Stop Loss 15.30
Key Levels 14.77, 14.92, 15.09, 15.30, 15.46, 15.60, 15.83, 16.00
Current trend
Yesterday, silver prices fell significantly, renewing the year’s lows due to the expectations of further Fed’s interest rates growth. The head of the regulator Jerome Powell stated that he still supports the planned rate of monetary policy tightening, and in total it is planned to raise the rates 4 times this year.
Next week in Washington, there will be the meeting of European Commission Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker and President Trump to negotiate the reducing or canceling 20% taxes on European cars, which the US administration is preparing to introduce in the near future. If the agreement fails, EU is ready to introduce additional duties on American goods, the list of which is being developed at the moment.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining. The price range is actively expanding, but not as fast as the "bearish" dynamics develop. MACD indicator decreases, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic almost did not react to the Thursday’s drop and is ready to reverse upwards, reflecting that silver is greatly oversold in the short and ultra-short term.
The current indicators’ readings do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend, but there is the possibility of developing corrective growth.
Resistance levels: 15.30, 15.46, 15.60, 15.83, 16.00.
Support levels: 15.09, 14.92, 14.77.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after a reverse near current levels and breakout of 15.30–15.46 with the target at 15.83 or 16.00 and stop loss 15.15–15.09.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels of 15.09–15.00 with the target at 14.77–14.50 and stop loss 15.30.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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