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WTI Crude Oil: the prices rise 25 September 2018, 10:20

WTI Crude Oil: the prices rise 25 September 2018, 10:20 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point...

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Sep 25, 2018

WTI Crude Oil: the prices rise 25 September 2018, 10:20

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 72.55, 73.10
Take Profit 73.74, 74.30
Stop Loss 72.30, 72.00
Key Levels 68.60, 69.07, 70.00, 71.00, 71.80, 72.49, 73.00, 73.74
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 72.17
Take Profit 70.00
Stop Loss 72.50
Key Levels 68.60, 69.07, 70.00, 71.00, 71.80, 72.49, 73.00, 73.74
Current trend
Yesterday, oil prices increased significantly, renewing the highs since July 11.
The instrument is supported by the results of the meeting of OPEC and partner countries in Algeria. Contrary to market expectations, the cartel did not decide to increase oil production to compensate for the supply deficit that could follow after the introduction of US sanctions against Iran. Moreover, next year OPEC predicts a serious decline in oil prices, and in this case, production may fall again. Now the market is waiting for a new meeting of the cartel and partner countries, which will take place in Abu Dhabi in December. By this time, the scale of the supply deficit after leaving the Iranian market will become clear, and decisions can be made on its compensation.
On Tuesday, investors will focus on API Weekly Crude Oil Stock release. EIA Crude Oil Stocks change will be published on Wednesday.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing steadily. The price range is actively expanding, but not as fast as the "bullish" dynamic develops. MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards but is approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument is overbought in the short term.
It is better to keep current long positions until the situation becomes clear.
Resistance levels: 72.49, 73.00, 73.74.
Support levels: 71.80, 71.00, 70.00, 69.07, 68.60.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 72.49 or 73.00 with the target at 73.74 or 74.30 and stop loss 72.30–72.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the downwards reversal of the price reverses near the current levels with the target at 70.00 and stop loss 72.50. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Altria Group Inc.: wave analysis 25 September 2018, 09:58

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 61.07
Take Profit 66.44, 71.68
Stop Loss 59.05
Key Levels 51.50, 53.90, 59.05, 66.44, 71.68
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 59.00
Take Profit 53.90, 51.50
Stop Loss 60.70
Key Levels 51.50, 53.90, 59.05, 66.44, 71.68
The price can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the large downward correction developed as a wave (2) of the higher level, and the development of the third wave (3) began. Now first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming, within which the wave (iii) of i is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 66.44–71.68. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 59.05.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 59.05 with the targets at 66.44–71.68. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 59.05 will let the price go down to the levels of 53.90–51.50.

McDonald’s Corp.: wave analysis 25 September 2018, 09:54

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 163.31
Take Profit 171.46, 178.80
Stop Loss 160.60
Key Levels 144.34, 152.94, 171.46, 178.80
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 152.85
Take Profit 144.34
Stop Loss 155.70
Key Levels 144.34, 152.94, 171.46, 178.80
The correction is ending. The price can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the correction of the higher level develops as a fourth wave 4, taking a triangle shape. Locally the ending wave е of 4 is developing, within which the wave (b) of e has ended. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 171.46–178.80 in the nearest future. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 152.94.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 152.94 with the targets at 171.46–178.80. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 152.94 will let the price go down to the level of 144.34.

USD/CHF: wave analysis 25 September 2018, 09:49

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.9660
Take Profit 0.9524
Stop Loss 0.9694
Key Levels 0.9524, 0.9694, 0.9762, 0.9864
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.9700
Take Profit 0.9762, 0.9864
Stop Loss 0.9680
Key Levels 0.9524, 0.9694, 0.9762, 0.9864
The pair can decrease.
On the 4-hour chart, the downward correction of the higher level develops as a wave 2. Now the wave a of 2 is forming, within which the fifth ending wave of the lower level (v) of a is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the level of 0.9524. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.9694.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant below the level of 0.9694 with the target at 0.9524. Implementation period: 3–5 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 0.9694 will let the pair grow to the levels of 0.9762–0.9864.

AUD/USD: wave analysis 25 September 2018, 09:44

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.7250
Take Profit 0.7000
Stop Loss 0.7304
Key Levels 0.7000, 0.7304, 0.7383, 0.7455
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.7310
Take Profit 0.7383, 0.7455
Stop Loss 0.7280
Key Levels 0.7000, 0.7304, 0.7383, 0.7455
The pair can fall.
On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level iii of 1 of (5) is developing. Now the fifth wave of the lower level (v) of iii is forming, within which the upward correction has ended as a wave iv of (v). If the assumption is correct, the pair will fall to the level of 0.7000. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 0.7304.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant below the level of 0.7304 with the target at 0.7000. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 0.7304 will let the pair grow to the levels of 0.7383–0.7455.

GBP/USD: the pound demonstrates ambiguous dynamics 25 September 2018, 09:36

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3145, 1.3175
Take Profit 1.3271, 1.3300
Stop Loss 1.3120, 1.3100
Key Levels 1.2894, 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3053, 1.3100, 1.3139, 1.3169, 1.3211, 1.3271, 1.3300
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3045
Take Profit 1.2960, 1.2940
Stop Loss 1.3100
Key Levels 1.2894, 1.2960, 1.3000, 1.3053, 1.3100, 1.3139, 1.3169, 1.3211, 1.3271, 1.3300
Current trend
GBP rose against USD on Monday, partially offsetting a strong decline in the instrument last Friday.
GBP is supported by the comments of UK's Brexit minister Dominique Raab, who, despite the EU leaders' refusal of the British deal plan, remains optimistic. The Minister noted that London will continue negotiations, and expressed confidence in their ultimate success. Nevertheless, the preparation for Brexit without a deal continues. The Economic Secretary to the Treasury Minister John Glen went on a trip to Asia. The purpose of the trip is to develop cooperation in the field of financial services with Indonesia, Malaysia and Japan.
Today, investors will focus on a speech by the Bank of England representative, Gertjan Vlieghe. However, activity in the market is likely to remain moderate, as traders are preparing for the decision of the Fed on the interest rate on Wednesday. The rate is expected to increase by 25 basis points to 2.25%.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading of recent days. MACD is going down keeping a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps the downtrend, but approaches its minimum levels, which indicates the risks of overbought pound in the ultra-short term.
It is necessary to wait for emergence of new trade signals from technical indicators.
Resistance levels: 1.3139, 1.3169, 1.3211, 1.3271, 1.3300.
Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3053, 1.3000, 1.2960, 1.2894.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.3139 or 1.3169. Take profit — 1.3271 or 1.3300. Stop loss — 1.3120 or 1.3100.
A confident breakdown of 1.3053 may become a signal to further sales with target at 1.2960 or 1.2940. Stop loss — 1.3100.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

Sep 24, 2018

AUD/USD: general analysis 24 September 2018, 10:26

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.7290
Take Profit 0.7360
Stop Loss 0.7260
Key Levels 0.7097, 0.7125, 0.7160, 0.7194, 0.7228, 0.7249, 0.7268, 0.7282, 0.7307, 0.7339, 0.7363, 0.7392
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.7250
Take Profit 0.7205, 0.7175,
Stop Loss 0.7280
Key Levels 0.7097, 0.7125, 0.7160, 0.7194, 0.7228, 0.7249, 0.7268, 0.7282, 0.7307, 0.7339, 0.7363, 0.7392
Current trend
Last week the AUD/USD pair strengthened due to the investors' interest in risky assets.
Reduction of trade tension between the US and China was the main catalyst for the growth of investors’ optimism. Beijing's cautious stance prevented the escalation of the trade conflict and affected the instrument positively. Today, China's new economic sanctions on goods from the United States amounting to $60 billion come into effect, which can support the Australian currency.
Rising raw material prices contributed to the preservation of Australia's sovereign rating at AAA level, in addition, the rating agency S&P changed the outlook for the Australian economy from "negative" to "stable".
Today, there is a lack of important macroeconomic releases in both countries. It is likely that AUD will continue to moderately strengthen against USD, as the introduction of Chinese taxes supports the pair.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is in the correction within the limited price range of 0.7265–0.7280. The key support is the middle line of Bollinger bands. The indicator reverses sideways, and the price range remains unchanged, indicating the continuation of the corrective dynamics. MACD histogram is in the positive area, keeping the buy signal. Stochastic does not give a clear signal for entering the market.
Resistance levels: 0.7282, 0.7307, 0.7339, 0.7363, 0.7392.
Support levels: 0.7268 0.7249, 0.7228, 0.7194, 0.7160, 0.7125, 0.7097.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7285 with the target at 0.7360 and stop loss 0.7260. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7255 with the targets at 0.7205 and 0.7175 and the stop loss 0.7280. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

JP Morgan Chase Co.: wave analysis 24 September 2018, 10:08

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 117.84
Take Profit 125.00
Stop Loss 112.65
Key Levels 108.20, 110.14, 112.65, 125.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 112.60
Take Profit 110.14, 108.20
Stop Loss 113.40
Key Levels 108.20, 110.14, 112.65, 125.00
The price can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the fifth wave of the higher level 5 of (3) forms. Now the local correction as a wave ii of 5 has formed, and the formation of the wave iii of 5 has begun. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the level of 125.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 112.65.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant above the level of 112.65 with the target at 125.00. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 112.65 will let the price go down to the levels of 110.14–108.20.

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