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USD/CHF: technical analysis 20 February 2019, 09:53

USD/CHF: technical analysis 20 February 2019, 09:53 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 0...

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Feb 20, 2019

USD/CHF: technical analysis 20 February 2019, 09:53

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9990
Take Profit 0.9935
Stop Loss 1.0020
Key Levels 0.9907, 0.9937, 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0039, 1.0081, 1.0106
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.0045
Take Profit 1.0105
Stop Loss 1.0020
Key Levels 0.9907, 0.9937, 0.9970, 1.0000, 1.0039, 1.0081, 1.0106
USD/CHF, D1
On D1 chart the instrument was corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The indicator turns sideways, and the price range slightly reduced, which indicates the correction of a downward trend. MACD histogram is in thee positive zone maintaining a weak buy signal. Stochastic entered the oversold area, so a strong buy signal can be formed until the end of the week.

USD/CHF, H4
On H4 chart, the instrument resumed its growth from the strong resistance level of 1.0000. Bollinger Bands are pointing downwards, and the price range slightly increases indicating the preservation of the downward trend. MACD histogram keeps the sell signal. Stochastic is preparing to leave the oversold zone, so a strong buy signal can be formed during the day.

Key levels
Support levels: 0.9907, 0.9937, 0.9970, 1.0000.
Resistance levels: 1.0039, 1.0081, 1.0106.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened below 0.9995 with the target at 0.9935 and stop loss at 1.0020.
Long positions may be opened above 1.0040 with the target at 1.0105 and stop loss at 1.0020.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.

Brent Crude Oil: general review 20 February 2019, 09:44

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 66.43
Take Profit 67.95
Stop Loss 65.60
Key Levels 60.65, 62.70, 64.60, 65.97, 67.26, 67.94, 68.71
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 65.35
Take Profit 63.30
Stop Loss 65.75
Key Levels 60.65, 62.70, 64.60, 65.97, 67.26, 67.94, 68.71
Current trend
Brent crude oil continues to trade near the highs of the current year.
Yesterday's slight decrease in the instrument was due to the fixation of a large volume of long positions in the market. Investors are concerned about the lack of progress in the US-China trade negotiations, which could force a slowdown in global growth and have a negative impact on demand. At the same time, the reduction in production under the leadership of OPEC, as well as sanctions against Venezuela, ensure price stability. The information that Saudi Arabia, following its production, also reduces oil exports, is also a positive factor. In the first half of February, it fell by 1,3 million barrels per day compared with the same period in January.
Today at 23:30 (GMT+2), an API report on US oil reserves will be published. A probable reduction will allow the instrument to consolidate above the psychological level of 67.00.
Support and resistance
H4 chart shows the correction of an upward trend. The instrument is traded within a limited price range. The moving average is the key support level. The indicator is directed upwards, and the price range slightly decreased, confirming the continuation of the correction dynamics. MACD histogram keeps the buy signal. Stochastic is ready to enter the overbought zone, so a sell signal can be formed in 1-2 days.
Support levels: 60.65, 62.70, 64.60, 65.97.
Resistance levels: 67.26, 67.94, 68.71.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 67.95 and stop loss at 65.60. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Short positions may be opened below the level of 65.40 with the target at 63.30 and stop loss at 65.75. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

NZD/USD: NZD strengthens 20 February 2019, 09:35

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6890
Take Profit 0.6923, 0.6940
Stop Loss 0.6860, 0.6850
Key Levels 0.6789, 0.6814, 0.6847, 0.6871, 0.6886, 0.6904, 0.6923, 0.6940
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.6845, 0.6840
Take Profit 0.6800, 0.6789
Stop Loss 0.6880
Key Levels 0.6789, 0.6814, 0.6847, 0.6871, 0.6886, 0.6904, 0.6923, 0.6940
Current trend
Yesterday, NZD rose against USD, despite the ambiguous dynamics during the day. The growth is due to the poor position of USD, which is still awaiting the outcome of trade negotiations between the United States and China.
However, NZD is under pressure of New Zealand poor statistics. Thus, the price index for dairy products, which makes up an impressive share in the country's exports, grew by only 0.9% after rising by 6.7% over the previous period. Q4 2018 producer purchasing price index increased by 1.6% QoQ after rising by 1.4% QoQ in the previous quarter. Analysts expected growth of +1.1% QoQ. The selling price index increased by 0.8% QoQ after rising by 1.5% QoQ in the previous period. Analysts' forecasts were at the level of +0.6% QoQ.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move horizontally. The price range narrows, reflecting the emergence of mixed trading dynamics in the short/medium term. The MACD grows, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic reverses downwards, being near its highs and indicating that the instrument if overbought in the super short term.
It is better to wait until the situation is clear. Part of the current profitable long positions can be closed in the short term.
Resistance levels: 0.6886, 0.6904, 0.6923, 0.6940.
Support levels: 0.6871, 0.6847, 0.6814, 0.6789.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 0.6886 with the target at 0.6923 or 0.6940. Stop loss is 0.6860–0.6850.
Short positions can be opened after the rebound from 0.6886 and the confident breakdown of 0.6850–0.6847 with the targets at 0.6814–0.6800 or 0.6789. Stop loss is 0.6880.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

XAG/USD: silver prices are rising 20 February 2019, 09:22

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 16.05
Take Profit 16.16, 16.20, 16.28
Stop Loss 15.96
Key Levels 15.66, 15.75, 15.89, 16.00, 16.05, 16.16, 16.28
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 15.97, 15.93
Take Profit 15.80, 15.75
Stop Loss 16.05
Key Levels 15.66, 15.75, 15.89, 16.00, 16.05, 16.16, 16.28
Current trend
Yesterday, silver prices rose significantly, and the instrument maintains an upward trend during the Asian session on February 20. The reason for the strengthening of the instrument is the poor position of USD and low investor interest in risk. Traders wait for the preliminary results of the negotiations between the US and China on trade disputes, which are being held this week in Washington.
In addition, the investors are focused on the publication of the minutes of the January Fed meeting on Wednesday, February 20. It is likely that the protocols will be secondary but will bring some clarity to the prospects for further increases in the Fed rate this year.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moving flat. The price range is expanding but not as fast as the "bullish" dynamic develops. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic rises but is in close proximity to its highs, which indicates that the pair is strongly overbought in the super short term.
It is better to keep current long positions in the short term until the situation on the market becomes clear.
Resistance levels: 16.05, 16.16, 16.28.
Support levels: 16.00, 15.89, 15.75, 15.66.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 16.05 with the targets at 16.16–16.20 or 16.28. Stop loss is 15.96.
Short positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 16.05 and the breakdown of the levels of 16.00–15.95 with the targets at 15.80–15.75. Stop loss is 16.05.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

GBP/USD: GBP is strengthening 20 February 2019, 09:20

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3105
Take Profit 1.3173, 1.3216
Stop Loss 1.3054
Key Levels 1.2917, 1.2957, 1.3000, 1.3054, 1.3100, 1.3139, 1.3173, 1.3216
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3050, 1.3015
Take Profit 1.2957, 1.2917
Stop Loss 1.3100
Key Levels 1.2917, 1.2957, 1.3000, 1.3054, 1.3100, 1.3139, 1.3173, 1.3216
Current trend
The British pound showed a sharp rise against the US dollar on Tuesday, marking a new local maximum since February 4.
The pound was strongly supported by data from the labor market, which inspired confidence in the stability of the economy in front of Brexit. The average salary (with premiums) in December increased by 3,4% 3MoY, which coincided with the data of last month and is the most powerful positive dynamics over the past 10 years. Still, analysts expected a slightly stronger growth (3.5% 3MoY). In December, The number employed increased by 167K, which turned out to be better than analysts' forecasts of 140K. The employment rate was the best since the beginning of 2018.
Today, investors are focused on the meeting of British Prime Minister Theresa May with the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker.
Support and resistance
On the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horisontally. The price range is trying to consolidate within a fairly wide range, corresponding to the observed dynamics. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic keeps a confident upward trend but is located near its maximum levels, signaling the overbought pound in the ultra-short term.
The showings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3139, 1.3173, 1.3216.
Support levels: 1.3054, 1.3000, 1.2957, 1.2917.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.3100. Take profit — 1.3173 or 1.3216. Stop loss – 1.3054.
A reverse near the current level, followed by a breakdown of 1.3054-1.3020, may become a signal for corrective sales with the target at 1.2957 or 1.2917. Stop loss — 1.3060 or 1.3100.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

JP Morgan Chase Co.: wave analysis 20 February 2019, 09:17

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 105.19
Take Profit 113.03, 119.50
Stop Loss 99.80
Key Levels 85.90, 91.53, 99.80, 113.03, 119.50
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 99.75
Take Profit 91.53, 85.90
Stop Loss 102.50
Key Levels 85.90, 91.53, 99.80, 113.03, 119.50
The price may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction formed as the fourth wave of the higher level 4 of (3). Now the development of the fifth wave 5 of (3) has begun, within which the first wave of the lower level (i) of i of 5 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 113.03–119.50. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 99.80.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 99.80 with the targets at 113.03–119.50. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 99.80 will let the price go down to the levels of 91.53–85.90.

IBM Corp.: wave analysis 20 February 2019, 09:15

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 138.68
Take Profit 105.90
Stop Loss 146.10
Key Levels 105.90, 146.10, 154.20, 161.90
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 146.15
Take Profit 154.20, 161.90
Stop Loss 143.45
Key Levels 105.90, 146.10, 154.20, 161.90
The correction is ending, the fall is possible.
On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level (3) developed. Now the formation of an upward correction as the fourth wave (4) is ending, within which the wave c of (4) is developing. If the assumption is correct, after its end, the price will fall to the level of 105.90. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 146.10.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant after the end of the correction, below the level of 146.10 with the target at 105.90. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 146.10 will let the price grow to the levels of 154.20–161.90.

USD/CAD: wave analysis 20 February 2019, 08:42

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.3203
Take Profit 1.3661
Stop Loss 1.3069
Key Levels 1.2796, 1.3069, 1.3661
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3060
Take Profit 1.2796
Stop Loss 1.3150
Key Levels 1.2796, 1.3069, 1.3661
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 develops, within which the wave ii of 3 ended. Now the entry wave of the lower level (i) of iii of 3 has formed, and the development of a local correction as the wave (ii) of iii, shaped as an irregular flat, is ending. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the level of 1.3661. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3069.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.3069 with the target at 1.3661. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3069 will let the pair go down to the level of 1.2796.

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