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EUR/USD: general review 11 December 2017, 14:01

EUR/USD: general review 11 December 2017, 14:01 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 1.177...

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Dec 11, 2017

EUR/USD: general review 11 December 2017, 14:01


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.1770
Take Profit 1.1718, 1.1657
Stop Loss 1.1810
Key Levels 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.1845
Take Profit 1.1900, 1.1962
Stop Loss 1.1810
Key Levels 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962
Current trend
The pair opened the week with upward correction continuing to act on the mixed November data from the US labor market. The number of nonfarm payrolls was above expectations (228K) but still reduced compared to the previous value (244K). Moreover, hourly growth of salary failed to reach the forecast levels and made up 0.2%. Generally, these data should not have an impact on the decision of the Fed’s members to increase the interest rate again during its December meeting, but it may be of importance in the long run.
The last Fed’s meeting this year is scheduled for this week and will be interesting for the investors not only because of the long-awaited decision on the interest rate but also due to follow-up statements, a press conference, and inflation and economic growth outlooks. In November the market received a number of negative signals indicating possible slowdown in the tightening of the monetary policy due to insufficient inflation growth in the country. At first it was pointed out by Janet Yellen, and then after the release of the recent Fed’s minutes it turned out that the chairwoman was supported by a number of members as well. If Yellen confirms her negative view of the situation, USD may get considerably cheaper.
Support and resistance
Right now the price is moving to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. If it consolidates above it and the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [6/8]) growth may continue to 1.1900 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [8/8]). Otherwise the fall will resume to 1.1718 (Murrey [4/8]) and 1.1657 (Murrey [3/8]). Technical indicators don’t give a clear signal. Stochastic has reversed upwards, Bollinger Bands are narrowing before considerable movement, and MACD is reducing in the positive zone.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips
In the current situation sell positions may be opened below the level of 1.1780 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1810.
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1810.

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA/NYSE) 11 December 2017, 13:27


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 172.90
Take Profit 168.00, 163.00, 160.00
Stop Loss 178.00
Key Levels 158.00, 167.00, 173.00, 177.50, 184.00, 192.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 184.10
Take Profit 192.00, 197.00
Stop Loss 179.00
Key Levels 158.00, 167.00, 173.00, 177.50, 184.00, 192.00
Current trend
Alibaba Group will invest 200 million US dollars in Bigbasket – the largest online retail in India. The Chinese Internet giant will receive a 25% stake in Bigbasket and the opportunity to gain a foothold in one of the fastest growing online commerce markets in the world.
Alibaba Group plans to conclude an agreement with Ford Motor Co., in which the American automobile concern will be able to sell its cars to Chinese consumers through the online trading platform Tmall Alibaba Group.
Over the last week shares of Alibaba Group increased by 1.72%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.11%.
Support and resistance
At the moment, there is a correction of the company's shares. The price is testing a "mirror" resistance level of 177.50. Local support is the level of 173.00. Indicators do not give clear signlas: #BABA quotes are consolidating between 50 MA and 200 MA; the MACD histogram began to grow. Nevertheless, further correction is not excluded.
A comparative analysis of the company's multipliers and competing companies in the industry testifies to the underestimation of #BABA.
Support levels: 173.00, 167.00, 158.00.
Resistance levels: 177.50, 184.00, 192.00.

Trading tips
If the price consolidates below the local support of 173.00, short positions can be opened with targets at 168.00, 163.00 and 160.00. Stop loss will be located at around 178.00.
If the price goes above the level of 184.00, you can consider #BABA purchases. Stop loss can be set at the level of 179.00. The potential profit levels are in the range of 192.00-197.00
Trading scenarios will be relevant for 3-4 days.

NZD/USD: downward impulse strengthens after correction 11 December 2017, 13:21


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.6907
Take Profit 0.6790, 0.6700
Stop Loss 0.6970
Key Levels 0.6700, 0.6750, 0.6790, 0.6820, 0.6880, 0.6895, 0.6920, 0.6945, 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7130
Current trend
NZD continues to consolidate in the wide side channel against US dollar. Low volatility of the pair is explained by mixed data from the past trading week.
NZD remains under pressure in view of preservation of a mild monetary policy by RBNZ and due to comments about the positive effect of low national currency rate on inflation growth and higher economic growth of New Zealand.
At the end of the previous week releases from the USA were mixed. Key indexes remained in the red zone, and labor market indicators showed growth. Today the pair gained almost 100 points in view of trading tendencies and reached the upper border of the current consolidated movement.
A number of key releases from the USA are due in the middle of the current week including the data on the main indexes, the Fed’s decision on interest rates, and the press conference of the regulator.
Support and resistance
In the medium term side tendency is expected to be preserved and further move to the downward trend. Despite the weakness of USD, the sales of NZD will increase. US dollar may receive verbal support from the Fed in case of positive evaluation of monetary policy tightening and continuation of the current rate increase tendency. Technical indicators confirm the growth outlook: MACD indicates the preservation of the high volume of short positions, and Bollinger Bands are horizontal.
Support levels: 0.6895, 0.6880, 0.6820, 0.6790, 0.6750, 0.6700.
Resistance levels: 0.6920, 0.6945, 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.7050, 0.7130.

Trading tips
In this situation short positions should be opened from the current level with targets at 0.6790, 0.6700 and stop-loss at 0.6970.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ/NYSE) 11 December 2017, 12:57


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 141.10
Take Profit 142.50, 143.00, 145.00
Stop Loss 139.50
Key Levels 134.00, 137.00, 139.00, 141.00, 144.00
Current trend
The upcoming tax reform in the USA has been supporting the stock of major businesses including pharmaceutical companies for several months now. The final version of the law that may be passed by the end of the year provides for the reduction of the tax rate for the repatriation of offshore funds from 35% to 10-14%. According to the data as of Q3 2017, about 90% of the funds of Johnson & Johnson are concentrated abroad. Additional tax benefits open a lot of prospects for the company in the part of increasing its free cash flow that may be used for investments and M&A or for repurchasing its own shares.
Within the previous week the stock of Johnson & Johnson rose by 0.44%. S&P500 grew by 0.11% within the same period of time. Comparing the company’s multipliers with those of its competitors, we can say that #JNJ shares are neutral.
Support and resistance
The current technical picture indicates the continuation of the global upward trend. The emitter has kept the “mirror” support level of 1370.00. Currently the quotes of #JNJ are testing the key resistance level of 141.00. Indicators show the strength of the buyers: the price has consolidated above MA(50) and MA(200); MACD is located in the positive zone and continues to grow. Positions should be opened within the tendency.
Support levels: 139.00, 137.00, 134.00.
Resistance levels: 141.00, 144.00.

Trading tips
If the price consolidated above the key resistance level of 141.00, one may consider buying #JNJ. Potential profits should be locked in by orders at 142.50, 143.00 and 145.00. Stop-loss should be placed at 139.50.
Trailing stop should be used for positions.
Trading tips will be relevant for 3 days.

USD/CAD: general review 11 December 2017, 11:29


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2880
Take Profit 1.2950, 1.2964
Stop Loss 1.2836
Key Levels 1.2735, 1.2769, 1.2800, 1.2836, 1.2878, 1.2907, 1.2964
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2830
Take Profit 1.2750, 1.2735
Stop Loss 1.2870
Key Levels 1.2735, 1.2769, 1.2800, 1.2836, 1.2878, 1.2907, 1.2964
Current trend
The US dollar traded in different directions against the Canadian dollar on Friday, December 8, having updated the local maximum. Published on Friday, the November report on the US labor market provided the USD with only a minor support, as a number of indicators (salary growth for example) fell short of market expectations.
At the same time, NFPR in November reached the level of 228K, which is 28K better than analysts' expectations, but 16K less than in October. In general, investors were satisfied with the state of the US labor market, which seems to need less and less economic incentives.
Now the attention of traders is switching to the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday, December 13, at which the interest rate is expected to be increased by 25 basis points to 1.50%.
Support and resistance
Bollinger bands on the daily chart move sideways. The price range slightly widens from above, giving the "bulls" the way to new local highs.
The indicator MACD grows, keeping a weak signal to buy (the histogram is located above the signal line).
The Stochastic is approaching the maximum, which indicates overbought instrument and can lead to a downward correction in the short-term perspective.
Resistance levels: 1.2878, 1.2907, 1.2964.
Support levels: 1.2836, 1.2800, 1.2769, 1.2735.


Trading tips
To open long positions, you can rely on the breakout of 1.2878. Take profit – 1.2950-1.2964. Stop loss – 1.2836. Term of realization: 2-3 days.
The development of corrective dynamics with breakdown of 1.2836 may become a signal to sell with the target of 1.2750-1.2735. Stop  loss – 1.2870. Term of realization: 2-3 days.

XAU/USD: technical analysis 11 December 2017, 11:24


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1250.15
Take Profit 1260.00, 1263.00, 1276.00
Stop Loss 1245.00
Key Levels 1227.00, 1240.00, 1243.00, 1260.00, 1263.00, 1276.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1240.00
Take Profit 1227.00
Stop Loss 1246.00
Key Levels 1227.00, 1240.00, 1243.00, 1260.00, 1263.00, 1276.00
XAU/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is testing the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is testing its strong support.

XAU/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is leaving the oversold zone, having broken out its longer MA. The Composite is testing its last week resistance.

Key levels
Support levels: 1243.00 (local lows), 1240.00 (October 2016 lows), 1227.00 (May 2015 highs).
Resistance levels: 1260.00 (October lows), 1263.00 (February highs), 1276.00 (local highs).
Trading tips
The price is testing from above its previous long-term descending trendline. There is a chance of an upward rebound.
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 1260.00, 1263.00, 1276.00 and stop-loss at 1245.00.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1240.00 with the target at 1227.00 and stop-loss at 1246.00.

YM: general review 11 December 2017, 10:56


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL LIMIT
Entry Point 24543.9
Take Profit 23750.0
Stop Loss 24720.9
Key Levels 23750.0, 23922.8, 24543.9, 24720.9
Current trend
Dow Jones index is still trading in the side range with the upper border at 24543.9 and the lower one at 23922.8. The general background remains positive as the US economy continues to grow. Nonfarm payrolls grew considerably last Friday and made up 221K against the outlook of 200K.
Speaking about the tax reform, right now the US Senate and the House of Representatives are negotiating its approval. President Trump hopes that the document would be signed before Christmas, and that in the future the reform would strengthen the national economy and help create new workplaces.
This week special attention should be paid to the Fed’s meeting and decision on the interest rate. According to initial outlooks, the likelihood of interest rate increase by 0.25% is about 90%, which in the end will strengthen the positions of USD and lead to the correction of stock indexes. Still, the comments of the officials about the current situation and the operations of the regulator in the open market are also important.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is at the level of 80 points and indicates possible correction of the index. Short positions should be opened from the upper border of the channel at 24543.9.
Resistance levels: 24543.9, 24720.9.
Support levels: 23922.8, 23750.0.

Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from the upper border of the channel at the level of 24543.9 with target at 23750.0 and stop-loss at 24720.9.

GBP/USD: the pair is trading in both directions 11 December 2017, 10:12


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3415
Take Profit 1.3500, 1.3548
Stop Loss 1.3370
Key Levels 1.3228, 1.3278, 1.3336, 1.3381, 1.3411, 1.3454, 1.3500, 1.3548
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3330
Take Profit 1.3228, 1.3200
Stop Loss 1.3381
Key Levels 1.3228, 1.3278, 1.3336, 1.3381, 1.3411, 1.3454, 1.3500, 1.3548
Current trend
The British pound showed considerable reduction against US dollar during Friday trading canceling all growth results showed by the instrument the day before. The reason for negative dynamics was corrective tendencies at the end of the week as well as quite pessimistic comments of the EU representatives regarding the progress of Brexit negotiations.
The President of the European Commission Juncker pointed out that negotiations had led to considerable success, but some topical issues remain, in particular regarding the Northern Ireland. It is a part of the UK and intends to leave the EU with it, but at the same time wants free access to trade with the Republic of Ireland which makes up a material part of its income.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show a tendency to horizontal reversal. The price range is actively reducing from below. MACD indicator is falling preserving a quite stable sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards after a long fall.
Resistance levels: 1.3411, 1.3454, 1.3500, 1.3548.
Support levels: 1.3381, 1.3336, 1.3278, 1.3228.


Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after breaking out the level of 1.3411 with targets at 1.3500, 1.3548 and stop-loss at 1.3370. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Breaking down the level of 1.3336 may be a signal for further sales with targets at 1.3228, 1.3200 and stop-loss at 1.3381. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

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