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USD/CHF: Murrey analysis 18 March 2019, 13:48

USD/CHF: Murrey analysis 18 March 2019, 13:48 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation SELL Entry Point 1.0000 Tak...

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Mar 18, 2019

USD/CHF: Murrey analysis 18 March 2019, 13:48

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 1.0000
Take Profit 0.9948
Stop Loss 1.0030
Key Levels 0.9948, 1.0009, 1.0070, 1.0131
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.0040, 0.9948
Take Profit 1.0131
Stop Loss 1.0000, 0.9900
Key Levels 0.9948, 1.0009, 1.0070, 1.0131
On D1 chart, the price reversed around the level of 1.0131 ([6/8]) and corrected to the center of the Murrey trading range to 1.0009 ([4/8]). A further decrease is possible to the level of 0.9948 ([3/8], the lower line of Bollinger Bands, the lower border of the ascending channel). However, one should consider that Stochastic entered the oversold zone, which limits the potential for decline. The continuation of growth will be possible after the reversal of the instrument near 0.9948 or when the price consolidates above the midline of Bollinger Bands. In this case, the pair may again rise to the level of 1.0131. But so far this scenario seems less probable.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 1.0009, 0.9948.
Resistance levels: 1.0070, 1.0131.

Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from the current level with the target at 0.9948 and stop loss at 1.0030.
Long positions may be opened from 1.0040 or 0.9948 with the target at 1.0131 and stop loss at 1.0000 and 0.9900, respectively.
Implementation period: 3-4 days.

NZD/USD: Murrey analysis 18 March 2019, 13:32

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.6830
Take Profit 0.6775, 0.6714
Stop Loss 0.6870
Key Levels 0.6714, 0.6775, 0.6835, 0.6897, 0.6958, 0.7030
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6900
Take Profit 0.6958, 0.7030
Stop Loss 0.6850
Key Levels 0.6714, 0.6775, 0.6835, 0.6897, 0.6958, 0.7030
At the beginning of the week, the NZD/USD pair is growing, trying to step away from the level of 0.6835 ([8/8]), near which the price has been trading during the past week. However, the strengthening of NZD is unlikely to be significant, since the upper limit of the “pennant” figure and the level of 0.6897 ([+1/8], the upper line of Bollinger bands) hinders the growth of the rate. If the instrument consolidates above the level of 0.6897, then further strengthening to the levels of 0.6958 ([+2/8]) and 0.7030 (highs of June of the last year) will be possible. The reverse breakdown of the level of 0.6835 and a decrease to the levels of 0.6775 ([7/8]) and 0.6714 ([6/8]) seems more likely.
Technical indicators show market uncertainty. Bollinger bands are directed horizontally. The MACD histogram is at the zero line, its volumes are insignificant. Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards.
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 0.6897, 0.6958, 0.7030.
Support levels: 0.6835, 0.6775, 0.6714.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.6835 with the targets at 0.6775, 0.6714 and stop loss around 0.6870.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6897 with the targets at 0.6958, 0.7030 and stop loss around 0.6850.
Implementation period: 4–5 days.

GBP/USD: general review 18 March 2019, 13:30

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 1.3266
Take Profit 1.3000
Stop Loss 1.3490
Key Levels 1.2775, 1.2855, 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3030, 1.3160, 1.3200, 1.3215, 1.3270, 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3410, 1.3450
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL LIMIT
Entry Point 1.3410, 1.3450
Take Profit 1.3000
Stop Loss 1.3490
Key Levels 1.2775, 1.2855, 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3030, 1.3160, 1.3200, 1.3215, 1.3270, 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3410, 1.3450
Current trend
The pound maintains an upward trend against the US dollar.
At the beginning of last week, the pair slipped to the lower border of the ascending channel at 1.2975, rebounded from it and headed up. At the end of the week, the instrument tested a local maximum of 1.3350 but failed to break it through. The pair has consolidated below 1.3300 and shows a lateral trend. Today, the instrument is declining due to a decrease in demand for the pound.
Starting tomorrow, important data from the UK will begin to be published, namely releases on the labor market, main indices, inflation, and retail sales. This data may give support to the pound, but, due to the tension around Brexit, the growth scenario is unlikely.
Support and resistance
The main scenario is the decline from the current level with the target at 1.3000 amid a fall in investor interest ahead of Brexit decisions. In case of taking this level, the formation of a long-term downtrend is possible. An alternative scenario is the growth of the pound amid favorable macroeconomic data to the upper border of the upward channel at 1.3450, and then a downward impulse for the pair. Technical indicators still confirm growth, but MACD shows a decrease in the volume of long positions, and Bollinger Bands have been rearranged horizontally.
Support levels: 1.3215, 1.3200, 1.3160, 1.3030, 1.3000, 1.2975, 1.2855, 1.2775.
Resistance levels: 1.3270, 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3410, 1.3450.

Trading tips
In this situation, short positions may be opened from the current level; pending short positions may be opened from 1.3410, 1.3450 with the target at 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.3490.

Bitcoin: technical analysis 18 March 2019, 11:56

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 4110.00
Take Profit 4240.00
Stop Loss 4070.00
Key Levels 3906.25, 3955.00, 4062.50, 4240.00, 4375.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 4020.00
Take Profit 3955.00, 3906.25
Stop Loss 4070.00
Key Levels 3906.25, 3955.00, 4062.50, 4240.00, 4375.00
Current trend
Last week, Bitcoin had ambiguous dynamics. The price has tested the level of 3906.25 (Murrey [5/8]) several times but failed to consolidate below it. Then growth began to 4062.50 (Murrey [6/8]), and now the instrument is located near it. The upward reversal of Bollinger Bands and the stabilization of MACD histogram in the positive zone confirm that the uptrend may decline. Quotes may continue rising to the February highs area at the level of 4240.00. However, Stochastic reversing near the overbought zone does not preclude a downward correction to 3955.00 (the midline of Bollinger Bands, the lower border of the ascending channel) and 3906.25 (Murrey [5/8]). Generally, the continuation of growth seems more likely.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 3955.00, 3906.25.
Resistance levels: 4062.50, 4240.00, 4375.00.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from 4110.00 with the target at 4240.00 and stop loss at 4070.00.
Short positions may be opened from 4020.00 with targets at 3955.00, 3906.25 and stop loss at 4070.00.
Implementation period: 4-5 days.

XAG/USD: silver prices are consolidating 18 March 2019, 08:58

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 15.40
Take Profit 15.60, 15.66
Stop Loss 15.25, 15.19
Key Levels 14.95, 15.11, 15.19, 15.30, 15.36, 15.46, 15.54
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 15.15
Take Profit 14.95
Stop Loss 15.30
Key Levels 14.95, 15.11, 15.19, 15.30, 15.36, 15.46, 15.54
Current trend
On Friday, silver prices rose, being slightly corrected after a significant decline the previous day. In addition to a number of technical factors, the reason for the emergence of upward dynamics was USD decline amid growing fears about the slowdown of the global economy.
Additional support for silver as a shelter asset is provided by the situation around Brexit. Voting for the postponement of the deadlines for the country's withdrawal from the EU, the UK has driven itself into a dead end that threatens it with a sharp increase in political competition. Oppositional sentiments are growing noticeably in the country, and more and more publications with the intentions of some politicians to achieve an additional referendum, following which the country can remain in the EU, appear in the media.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily declining. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is growing, keeping a poor buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is actively falling and practically does not react to the appearance of “bullish” dynamics at the end of the last trading week.
It is better to wait for the appearance of additional trading signals from the indicators to open positions.
Resistance levels: 15.30, 15.36, 15.46, 15.54.
Support levels: 15.19, 15.11, 14.95.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 15.30–15.36 with the targets at 15.54 or 15.60–15.66. Stop loss is 15.25–15.19. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 15.19 with the target at 14.95. Stop loss is 15.30. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Brent Crude Oil: flat dynamics 18 March 2019, 08:55

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 67.55
Take Profit 69.00
Stop Loss 66.90, 66.80
Key Levels 64.28, 65.00, 65.50, 66.06, 67.00, 67.70, 68.20, 69.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 66.35, 66.25
Take Profit 65.00
Stop Loss 67.00
Key Levels 64.28, 65.00, 65.50, 66.06, 67.00, 67.70, 68.20, 69.00
Current trend
On Friday, oil prices declined in response to new data indicating a slowdown in the global economy and growth in US energy production. However, by the end of the daily session, the instrument recovered almost all of its losses, which, in particular, was due to the publication of the Baker Hughes report. According to the weekly data for March 15, the number of active rigs in the United States decreased from 834 to 833 units, which was the fourth decline in a row.
The prices are also supported by OPEC+ actions. At the moment, a decrease in the volume of oil supplies even slightly outpaces the original figures, which allows balancing the active growth of American “black gold” production. The next meeting of the cartel, at which the fate of the current agreement on limiting production will be decided, will be held on April 17–18.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move sideways. The price range is almost unchanged, which corresponds with the market dynamics. The MACD falls, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic decreases more confidently, reflecting the possibility of a super-short corrective impulse development.
The current indicators’ readings do not contradict the further development of the “bearish” trend, however, to open new sales it is better to wait for additional signals.
Resistance levels: 67.00, 67.70, 68.20, 69.00.
Support levels: 66.06, 65.50, 65.00, 64.28.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 67.50 with the target at 69.00. Stop loss is 66.90–66.80.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 66.40–66.30 with the target at 65.00. Stop loss is 67.00.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

EUR/USD: EUR is strengthening 18 March 2019, 08:49

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.1350
Take Profit 1.1400, 1.1418
Stop Loss 1.1313
Key Levels 1.1233, 1.1255, 1.1288, 1.1313, 1.1343, 1.1370, 1.1400, 1.1418
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.1310
Take Profit 1.1255
Stop Loss 1.1343
Key Levels 1.1233, 1.1255, 1.1288, 1.1313, 1.1343, 1.1370, 1.1400, 1.1418
Current trend
EUR ended the week with moderate growth. The instrument was able to update the local maxima of March 4, but, at the end of the daily session on Friday, investors returned to profit taking. EUR was supported by good data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone in February. As expected, CPI rose by 0.3% MoM and 1.5% YoY, against -1.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY. The core CPI remained at 0.3% MoM, coinciding with the forecasts.
In turn, published macroeconomic statistics from the USA failed to meet market expectations. Industrial output in February rose by 0.1% MoM after declining by 0.4% MoM last month (with expected growth of 0.4%). New York FRB Manufacturing index in March fell from 8.8 to 3.7 points, with expectations of growth to 10.0 points. The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan has managed to support USD. In March the index rose sharply from 93.8 to 97.8 points while the forecast was 95.3 points.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is actively narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic keeps an upward trend, but is approaching its maximum levels, signaling overbought risks in the ultra-short term.
One should keep existing long positions until clarification.
Resistance levels: 1.1343, 1.1370, 1.1400, 1.1418.
Support levels: 1.1313, 1.1288, 1.1255, 1.1233.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1.1343. Take profit — 1.1400 or 1.1418. Stop loss – 1.1313.
A rebound from 1.1343, as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 1.1313, may become a signal for corrective sales with the target at 1.1255. Stop loss – 1.1343.
Implementation time: 2-3 days.

Apple Inc.: wave analysis 18 March 2019, 08:37

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 178.92
Take Profit 197.73, 124.13
Stop Loss 169.37
Key Levels 155.50, 159.55, 169.37, 197.73, 124.13
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 169.30
Take Profit 159.55, 155.50
Stop Loss 172.55
Key Levels 155.50, 159.55, 169.37, 197.73, 124.13
The price may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction formed as the wave (4), shaped as a zigzag with a lengthened wave C of (4). Now the formation of the fifth wave (5) has begun, within which the first wave of the lower level 1 of (5) has formed as a momentum, and the local correction 2 of (5) has ended. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 197.73–1224.13. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 169.37.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 169.37 with the targets at 197.73–124.13. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 169.37 will let the price go down to the levels of 159.55–155.50.

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