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USD/CAD: general analysis 19 April 2018, 13:11

USD/CAD: general analysis 19 April 2018, 13:11 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 1.2600...

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Apr 19, 2018

USD/CAD: general analysis 19 April 2018, 13:11

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2600
Take Profit 1.2525
Stop Loss 1.2640
Key Levels 1.2450, 1.2490, 1.2525,1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2685, 1.2750, 1.2790, 1.2820, 1.2845, 1.2880, 1.2900, 1.2930, 1.2950
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2700
Take Profit 1.2750
Stop Loss 1.2670
Key Levels 1.2450, 1.2490, 1.2525,1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2685, 1.2750, 1.2790, 1.2820, 1.2845, 1.2880, 1.2900, 1.2930, 1.2950
Current trend
USD strengthened against CAD after the decision of the Bank of Canada to keep the interest rate on the level of 1.25%. The mood of the speech of the head of the regulator Stephen Poloz was restricted. Based on the fundamental factors, he refused from estimating the market only positively. The growth of the pair was restricted by the increase in oil prices, which renewed the 4-years highs against the decrease in US oil resources.
Today the market is waiting for US employment market data release at 14:30 (GMT+2). Initial Jobless Claims indicator is expected to decrease from 233K to 230K, which can support USD.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the downward movement is in the correction, the instrument is trading within the middle line and the lower border of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping sell signal.
Resistance levels: 1.2685, 1.2750, 1.2790, 1.2820, 1.2845, 1.2880, 1.2900, 1.2930, 1.2950.
Support levels: 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2525, 1.2490, 1.2450.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2600 with the target at 1.2525. Stop loss is 1.2640.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.2700 with the target at 1.2750 and stop loss 1.2670.
Implementation period: 1–3 days.

FTSE: technical analysis 19 April 2018, 11:41

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 7333.3
Take Profit 7295.0, 7190.0, 7175.0
Stop Loss 7360.0
Key Levels 7175.0, 7190.0, 7295.0, 7360.0, 7380.0, 7450.0
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 7380.0
Take Profit 7450.0
Stop Loss 7330.0
Key Levels 7175.0, 7190.0, 7295.0, 7360.0, 7380.0, 7450.0
FTSE, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just above the EMA130, EMA65 and EMA14 that start turning up, and below the SMA200 which is horizontal. The RSI is approaching the border of the overbought zone. The Composite begins forming a Bearish divergence with the price.

FTSE, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that are directed up. The RSI is testing from above the border of the overbought zone. The Composite turned down, having reached its critical overbought levels.

Key levels
Support levels: 7295.0 (local lows), 7190.0 (September 2017 lows), 7175.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 7360.0 (local highs), 7380.0 (local highs), 7450.0 (March 2017 highs).
Trading tips
The price is about to test a strong resistance near 7360.0. There is a chance of a downward rebound.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 7295.0, 7190.0, 7175.0 and stop-loss at 7360.0.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7380.0 with the target at 7450.0 and stop-loss at 7330.0.

Brent Crude Oil: general review 19 April 2018, 10:37

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 73.50
Take Profit 74.00, 75.00
Stop Loss 73.00
Key Levels 68.75, 70.31, 71.87, 73.43, 74.00, 75.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 71.80
Take Profit 70.31
Stop Loss 72.30
Key Levels 68.75, 70.31, 71.87, 73.43, 74.00, 75.00
Current trend
Quotes of Brent crude oil are growing on the background of official data from the US Department of Energy, indicating a reduction in oil reserves in the country. According to the report, this week, oil reserves fell by 1.071 million barrels, which almost coincided with preliminary data from the API, published on Tuesday.
Against this background, the rate of Brent rose to the area of 73.43 (Murray [7/8]), which is the highest level since December 2014. Additional support for the oil market is provided by a tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The problems in Syria and Iran potentially can lead to disruptions in the supply of oil from the region. On Friday, investors will pay attention to the report of Baker Hughes on the change in the number of active oil platforms in the US. The previous week their number increased by 7 to 815 units.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators indicate that the potential for upward movement remains, but do not exclude a downward correction in the short term. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively growing in the positive zone, forming a signal for purchase. Bollinger Bands diverge, signaling the continuation of the current trend. However, the price broke through the upper line of Bollinger Bands, and Stochastic in the overbought zone reversed downwards, indicating the probability of a downward correction.
Support levels: 71.87, 70.31, 68.75.
Resistance levels: 73.43, 74.00, 75.00.

Trading tips
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 73.43 with targets at 74.00–75.00 and stop-loss at 73.00.
Sell positions should be opened below the level of 71.87 with target at 70.31 and stop-loss at 72.30.

XAG/USD: the price of silver is rising 19 April 2018, 10:00

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 17.21
Take Profit 17.30, 17.38
Stop Loss 17.10, 17.05
Key Levels 16.78, 16.82, 16.92, 17.00, 17.17, 17.25, 17.38
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 16.95
Take Profit 16.82, 16.78, 16.71
Stop Loss 17.13
Key Levels 16.78, 16.82, 16.92, 17.00, 17.17, 17.25, 17.38
Current trend
Prices for silver rose sharply on Wednesday, updating local highs since February 2, 2018. The reason for the acceleration of the "bullish" trend was in technical factors, as well as the weakness of USD, which remained without support from macroeconomic statistics on Wednesday.
By the time of the close of the daily trading session, the instrument managed to recoup slightly. Moderate support for the dollar was provided by the publication of the Beige Book, as well as the Fed representatives’ comments, in particular William Dudley. According to the economic review from the regulator, there was a moderate economic growth in 12 regions of the country. There is also a gradual increase in wages, which is a very important indicator for the Fed in choosing the monetary policy vector.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show growth. The price range is actively expanding, reacting to a surge in "bullish" sentiment on Wednesday, but does not conform to the dynamics development.
MACD indicator accelerates, maintaining the previous purchase signal (the histogram is located above the signal line).
Stochastic is also directed upwards, but is located in close proximity to the maximum mark, which signals in favor of the development of corrective decline at the end of the current trading week.
One should look at the possibility of developing a "bearish" dynamics in the next two days.
Resistance levels: 17.17, 17.25, 17.38.
Support levels: 17.00, 16.92, 16.82, 16.78.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 17.17 mark. Take-profit – 17.30–17.38. Stop-loss — 17.10–17.05. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
The development of corrective dynamics with the breakdown of the level of 17.00 may become a signal to start sales with targets at 16.82 or 16.78, 16.71. Stop-loss — 17.13. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

USD/CHF: the dollar is strengthening 19 April 2018, 09:58

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.9705
Take Profit 0.9760
Stop Loss 0.9660
Key Levels 0.9580, 0.9600, 0.9647, 0.9662, 0.9700, 0.9730, 0.9760
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL LIMIT
Entry Point 0.9700
Take Profit 0.9600, 0.9570
Stop Loss 0.9750
Key Levels 0.9580, 0.9600, 0.9647, 0.9662, 0.9700, 0.9730, 0.9760
Current trend
Yesterday USD grew against CHF and renewed the maximum since January 12.
Controversial factors affect USD. The news upon the secret visit of the former CIA director Mike Pompeo to DPRK inspires the traders, who hope for soon deal-making and possible disarmament of North Korea. However, they are frightened by the tightening of the USA-China trade conflict, caused by the ban on US technologic solution to ZTE Company, which can lead to the bankruptcy of it. Now around 25–30% of the accessories in ZTE goods are made in the USA, while the devices are using an Android form Google operational system. The market is waiting for Chinese retaliatory measures, which will affect the international trade negatively.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are actively growing. The price range is widening, but not as fast as the “bullish” dynamics develops, which reflect a slight redundancy of buyers’ activity. MACD is growing, keeping a moderate buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic’s dynamic is the same, but it is reaching its highs, reflecting that USD is overbought in the short or very short term.
It is better to keep a part of the current long positions. A downward correction is possible at the end of this trading week.
Resistance levels: 0.9700, 0.9730, 0.9760.
Support levels: 0.9662, 0.9647, 0.9600, 0.9580.



Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level 0.9700 with the target at 0.9760 and stop loss 0.9660. Implementation period: 2 days.
Short positions can be opened after the rebound at the level of 0.9700 and the breakdown 0.9662 with the target at 0.9600 or 0.9570. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

Microsoft Corp.: wave analysis 19 April 2018, 09:41

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 96.45
Take Profit 104.00, 108.00
Stop Loss 93.95
Key Levels 77.56, 87.15, 104.00, 108.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 87.10
Take Profit 77.56
Stop Loss 90.30
Key Levels 77.56, 87.15, 104.00, 108.00
The price can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the upward momentum is forming within the third wave (3) of the higher level. Locally the fifth wave of the lower level v of 5 of (3) is forming, within which the third wave (iii) of v is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 104.00–108.00. The level of 87.15 is critical for this scenario.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 87.15 with the targets at 104.00–108.00.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 87.15 will let the price go down to the level of 77.56.

Apple Inc.: wave analysis 19 April 2018, 09:39

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 177.81
Take Profit 195.00
Stop Loss 172.05
Key Levels 150.22, 164.12, 195.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 164.10
Take Profit 150.22
Stop Loss 168.75
Key Levels 150.22, 164.12, 195.00
The trend is upward.
On the 4-hour chart, the fifth wave (5) of the higher level is developing. Now the third wave of the lower level 3 of (5) is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the area of the level of 195. 00. The level of 164.12 is critical for this scenario.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 164.12 with the target at 195.00.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 164.12 will let the price go down to the level of 150.22.

GBP/USD: wave analysis 19 April 2018, 09:37

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.4198
Take Profit 1.4465, 1.4570
Stop Loss 1.4110
Key Levels 1.3705, 1.3970, 1.4465, 1.4570
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3960
Take Profit 1.3705
Stop Loss 1.4045
Key Levels 1.3705, 1.3970, 1.4465, 1.4570
The pair can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the fifth wave v of 5 is forming within the first wave (1) of the higher level. Locally the development of the third wave of the lower level (iii) of v has ended, and the downward correction (iv) of v is forming. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.4465–1.4570. The level of 1.3970 is critical for this scenario.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.3970 with the targets at 1.4465–1.4570.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3970 will let the pair go down to the level of 1.3705.

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