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GBP/USD: general analysis 19 April 2019, 10:54

GBP/USD: general analysis 19 April 2019, 10:54 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation SELL Entry Point 1.2997 Ta...

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Apr 19, 2019

GBP/USD: general analysis 19 April 2019, 10:54

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 1.2997
Take Profit 1.2900
Stop Loss 1.3015
Key Levels 1.2883, 1.2925, 1.2960, 1.2974, 1.3015, 1.3057, 1.3103, 1.3162, 1.3205
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3020
Take Profit 1.3060
Stop Loss 1.2995
Key Levels 1.2883, 1.2925, 1.2960, 1.2974, 1.3015, 1.3057, 1.3103, 1.3162, 1.3205
Current trend
Yesterday, USD strengthened against major currencies due to the publication of strong economic reports.
The GBP/USD pair is under pressure of positive statistics on US Retail Sales. In March, it grew by 1.6%, while experts predicted a growth of 0.9%. In addition, the number of US Initial and Continuous Jobless Claims unexpectedly decreased, while investors were expecting a negative release. At the same time, the market ignored strong reports on UK Retail Sales, which indicates the high importance of political risks generated against the background of Brexit.
Today, financial institutions in the UK are closed. At 14:30 (GMT+2), the publication of data on the US housing market is expected, which may have a negligible impact on the dynamics of the trading instrument.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading at the lower border of Bollinger bands, which is the key support. The indicator is directed downwards, and the price range has expanded, indicating a continuation of the downward trend. The MACD histogram keeps a poor sell signal. Stochastic leaves the oversold area, a buy signal can be formed in the coming hours.
Resistance levels: 1.3015, 1.3057, 1.3103, 1.3162, 1.3205.
Support levels: 1.2974, 1.2960, 1.2925, 1.2883.

Trading tips
Short positions should be opened from the current level with the target at 1.2900 and stop loss 1.3015. Implementation period: 1–3 days.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3015 with the target at 1.3060 and stop loss 1.2995. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

AUD/USD: technical analysis 19 April 2019, 10:39

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 0.7155
Take Profit 0.7190
Stop Loss 0.7130
Key Levels 0.7028, 0.7054, 0.7078, 0.7099, 0.7122, 0.7135, 0.7150, 0.7165, 0.7182, 0.7197
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.7125
Take Profit 0.7055
Stop Loss 0.7150
Key Levels 0.7028, 0.7054, 0.7078, 0.7099, 0.7122, 0.7135, 0.7150, 0.7165, 0.7182, 0.7197
AUD/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading at the bottom of Bollinger bands. The indicator is directed downwards, and the price range has expanded, indicating a continuation of the downward trend. The MACD histogram is being corrected at the zero line, its volumes slightly decreased, forming a poor sell signal. Stochastic leaves the oversold area, generating a strong buy signal.

AUD/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is testing a strong resistance of 0.7150. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, and the price range has expanded, which indicates a continuation of the upward trend. The MACD histogram is being corrected in the neutral zone. Stochastic does not give a clear signal to enter the market.

Key levels
Resistance levels: 0.7150, 0.7165, 0.7182, 0.7197.
Support levels: 0.7135, 0.7122, 0.7099, 0.7078, 0.7054, 0.7028.
Trading tips
Long positions should be opened from the current level with the target at 0.7190 and stop loss 0.7130. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7130 with the target at 0.7055 and stop loss 0.7150. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

EUR/USD: euro is falling 19 April 2019, 10:29

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.1260
Take Profit 1.1322, 1.1343
Stop Loss 1.1223
Key Levels 1.1150, 1.1181, 1.1205, 1.1223, 1.1253, 1.1285, 1.1322, 1.1343
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.1220
Take Profit 1.1181
Stop Loss 1.1245
Key Levels 1.1150, 1.1181, 1.1205, 1.1223, 1.1253, 1.1285, 1.1322, 1.1343
Current trend
Yesterday, EUR declined significantly against USD, renewing the local lows since April 8. The negative dynamics is due to disappointing statistics on EU business activity. April Markit Service PMI decreased from 53.3 to 52.5 points, against the expected decrease only to 53.2 points. April Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.6 to 51.3 points against the forecast of 51.8 points. German data were better than expected. Markit Service PMI rose from 55.4 to 55.6 points, while the market expected a decline to 55.1 points. The only exception was Manufacturing PMI, which rose from 44.1 to 44.5 points while the forecast was 45.0 points. In addition to ambiguous macroeconomic statistics, EUR was under pressure from the prospects of a new trade war between the US and the EU. Yesterday, Brussels announced the possibility of introducing response import duties on American goods worth more than $20 billion.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands grow slightly. The price range narrows, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics in the short term. The MACD reversed downwards to form a sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic decreases actively and is approaches its lows, indicating that EUR can become oversold in the super-short term.
The further development of the correctional “bearish” trend is possible in the short/super short term.
Resistance levels: 1.1253, 1.1285, 1.1322, 1.1343.
Support levels: 1.1223, 1.1205, 1.1181, 1.1150.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after a rebound from 1.1223 and a breakout of 1.1253 with the targets at 1.1322–1.1343. Stop loss is 1.1223. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.1223 with the target at 1.1181. Stop loss is 1.1245. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Brent Crude Oil: oil prices are rising 19 April 2019, 10:19

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 72.60
Take Profit 73.62, 74.00
Stop Loss 71.80
Key Levels 70.00, 70.43, 71.00, 71.66, 72.55, 73.20, 73.62
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 71.60
Take Profit 70.43, 70.00
Stop Loss 72.50
Key Levels 70.00, 70.43, 71.00, 71.66, 72.55, 73.20, 73.62
Current trend
Yesterday, oil prices rose, supported by the same factors on the market. The report by the US Department of Energy reflected a steady decline in US oil reserves by 1.4 million barrels, and also recorded a slight decrease in the volume of “black gold” production in the country. The decline in supply by OPEC+ is also observed, although the market fears uncertain prospects around the extension of the deal in the current year. The price is positively affected by the news from Libya, where the internal military conflict is going, which threatens to completely stop oil production in the country. On Thursday, one day earlier than usual, Baker Hughes published a report on active oil platforms in the United States. During the reporting week, the number of drilling rigs fell from 833 to 825 units.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are growing moderately. The price range narrows, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading in the short term. The MACD indicator is falling, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic shows uncertain dynamics, located near the formal border of the overbought zone at 80.
The current readings of the indicators remain uninformative. To open new trading positions, it is better to wait for the development of the situation.
Resistance levels: 72.55, 73.20, 73.62.
Support levels: 71.66, 71.00, 70.43, 70.00.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of 72.55 with the target at 73.62 or 74.00. Stop loss is 71.80.
Short positions can be opened after a rebound from 72.55 and a breakdown of 71.66 with the targets at 70.43–70.00. Stop loss is 72.50.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

American Express Co.: wave analysis 19 April 2019, 09:55

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 113.67
Take Profit 120.00, 125.00
Stop Loss 109.28
Key Levels 101.50, 104.50, 109.28, 120.00, 125.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 109.20
Take Profit 104.50, 101.50
Stop Loss 110.75
Key Levels 101.50, 104.50, 109.28, 120.00, 125.00
The price may grow
On the 4-hour chart, the correctional wave of the higher level 4 of (5) of A formed, and the development of the wave 5 of (5) began. Now the first wave of the lower level i of 5 has formed as a momentum, and the downward correction ii of 5 has developed. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 120.00–125.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 109.28.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 109.28 with the targets at 120.00–125.00. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 109.28 will let the price go down to the levels of 104.50–101.50.

Boeing Co.: wave analysis 19 April 2019, 09:53

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 380.14
Take Profit 350.00, 330.78
Stop Loss 398.22
Key Levels 330.78, 350.00, 398.22, 445.24, 500.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 398.30
Take Profit 445.24, 500.00
Stop Loss 382.65
Key Levels 330.78, 350.00, 398.22, 445.24, 500.00
The price may fall.
On the 4-hour chart, the fifth wave of the higher level (5) forms. Now the first wave of the lower level 1 of (5) has formed as a momentum, and the downward correction is developing as the wave 2 of (5), within which the wave b of 2 has ended, and the wave c of 2 is forming. If the assumption is correct, the price will fall to the levels of 350.00–330.78. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 398.22.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant during the correction, below the level of 398.22 with the targets at 350.00–330.78. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 398.22 will let the price grow to the levels of 445.24–500.00.

USD/CAD: wave analysis 19 April 2019, 09:50

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.3369
Take Profit 1.3660
Stop Loss 1.3275
Key Levels 1.3126, 1.3219, 1.3275, 1.3660
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3270
Take Profit 1.3219, 1.3126
Stop Loss 1.3290
Key Levels 1.3126, 1.3219, 1.3275, 1.3660
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the correction of the higher level formed as the second wave ii of 3, and the development of the wave iii of 3 began. Now the first wave of the lower level (i) of iii has formed, and the local correction (ii) of iii has developed. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the level of 1.3660. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3275.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.3275 with the target at 1.3660. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3275 will let the pair go down to the levels of 1.3219–1.3126.

USD/JPY: wave analysis 19 April 2019, 09:48

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 111.91
Take Profit 113.00, 114.00
Stop Loss 111.10
Key Levels 108.31, 109.66, 110.83, 113.00, 114.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 110.75
Take Profit 109.66, 108.31
Stop Loss 111.30
Key Levels 108.31, 109.66, 110.83, 113.00, 114.00
The pair may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (C) develops, within which the formation of the wave iii of 3 began. Now the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 113.00–114.00. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 110.83.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 110.83 with the targets at 113.00–114.00. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price below the level of 110.83 will let the pair go down to the levels of 109.66–108.31.

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