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NZD/USD: return to a downward trend – in the future 25 May 2018, 14:38

NZD/USD: return to a downward trend – in the future 25 May 2018, 14:38 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL En...

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May 25, 2018

NZD/USD: return to a downward trend – in the future 25 May 2018, 14:38

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.6916
Take Profit 0.6850, 0.6730
Stop Loss 0.6975, 0.7060
Key Levels 0.6730, 0.6800, 0.6850, 0.6880, 0.6895, 0.6920, 0.6950, 0.6970, 0.7010, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7170
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL LIMIT
Entry Point 0.6950, 0.7010
Take Profit 0.6850, 0.6730
Stop Loss 0.7060
Key Levels 0.6730, 0.6800, 0.6850, 0.6880, 0.6895, 0.6920, 0.6950, 0.6970, 0.7010, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7170
Current trend
The New Zealand currency, like most of the majors, has significantly weakened against USD since mid-April, having lost more than 500 points.
At the beginning of last week, the pair reached a key support level of 0.6850, from which it rebounded and moved to an upward correction. Later on, the upper border of the steep downward channel 0.6920 was taken, and the instrument went up. Now the pair is forming a new corrective ascending channel in view of falling demand for USD due to the fixation of short positions at local lows, despite favorable data on major indices.
US data on orders for durable goods and the consumer sentiment index will be published today.
Support and resistance
At the moment, the medium-term main scenario remains the same - the fall of the pair within the downtrend. There are two short-term forecasts. The first is the preservation of the short-term upward momentum within the ascending correction channel with targets of 0.6770, 0.7010, from which a new wave of the medium-term main trend will form. The second is taking the lower border of the correctional channel, the subsequent return to the descending channel and movement to new local minima within it.
Technical indicators confirm the fall outlook: MACD points to a slight drop in the volume of short positions (which still remains impressive), Bollinger Bands are directed down, the medium sliding is at a resistance level of 0.6950, showing its strength.
Support levels: 0.6920, 0.6895, 0.6880, 0.6850, 0.6800, 0.6730.
Resistance levels: 0.6950, 0.6970, 0.7010, 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7170.

Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from the current level; pending orders can be opened from levels of 0.6950, 0.7010 with targets at 0.6850, 0.6730 and the stop-loss at 0.7060.

Brent Crude Oil: technical analysis 25 May 2018, 13:26

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 76.90
Take Profit 76.56, 75.78
Stop Loss 77.30
Key Levels 75.78, 76.17, 76.56, 76.95, 77.34, 77.73, 78.12
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY LIMIT
Entry Point 75.78
Take Profit 76.56, 76.96
Stop Loss 75.40
Key Levels 75.78, 76.17, 76.56, 76.95, 77.34, 77.73, 78.12
Current trend
Oil quotes show negative dynamics. The price tested at a minimum at around 77.10 and retains the downward potential to 76.56-75.78 area.
At 75.78 mark there is a strong support level, from which a reversal and the formation of an upward correction is likely. The level of 78.51 (corresponding to the midline of Bollinger Bands) looks like the main target of correction.
Technical indicators mainly preserve a sell signal: Bollinger Bands show a diverge, signaling an active continuation of the current trend. MACD volumes are growing in the positive zone forming the sale signal. Stochatic lines are directed downwards.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 76.95, 76.56, 76.17, 75.78.
Resistance levels: 77.34, 77.73, 78.12.

Trading tips
Sell positions may be opened below 76.95 with targets at 76.56-75.78 area and the stop-loss at 77.30.
Buy positions may be opened if a price rebounds from the support level of 75.78 with targets at 76.56-76.96 area and the stop-loss at 75.40.

EUR/USD: general analysis 25 May 2018, 13:16

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.1657
Take Profit 1.1596, 1.1540
Stop Loss 1.1690
Key Levels 1.1540, 1.1596, 1.1657, 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.1780
Take Profit 1.1840, 1.1900
Stop Loss 1.1740
Key Levels 1.1540, 1.1596, 1.1657, 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900
Current trend
Yesterday, the pair correctionally grew and is now trying to consolidate above the level of 1.1718. USD is under pressure of canceling the US-DPRK summit, moreover, next week new sanctions may be imposed on DPRK. However, EUR is unstable due to the Italian and Spanish government crisis. The Socialist Party of Spain is ready to vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, whose advisers are accused of corruption.
Investors continue to follow the development of US-China trade disputes. The recent agreements on the mutual suspension of duties and of the US trade deficit with the US 200 billion aroused serious criticism in the US Congress. The Donald Trump to declare that the trade agreement with the PRC could be changed since it is difficult to verify its results. Market participants saw in this the possibility of a breakdown of the transaction. In addition, the US currency is weakened due to the data. There are fears that the following duties on metals, the president's administration and the trade war (this time with Germany, Japan, and South Korea) will get a new round.
Support and resistance
The consolidation above 1.1718 (Murray [2/8]) will let the price grow to the levels of 1.1840 (Bollinger bands’ middle line), 1.1900. However, the indicators reflect the strength of sellers, so the decline to 1.1596 (Murray [–1/8]) and 1.1540 is possible. Bollinger bands are pointed down, MACD is growing in the negative zone, Stochastic is reversing downwards.
Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1840, 1.1900.
Support levels: 1.1657, 1.1596, 1.1540.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the level 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1596, 1.1540 and stop loss 1.1690.
Long positions can be opened at the level 1.1780 with the targets at 1.1840, 1.1900 and stop loss 1.1740.

Walmart Inc. (WMT/NYSE): general review 25 May 2018, 12:52

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 81.90
Take Profit 80.00, 78.00, 77.00
Stop Loss 84.00
Key Levels 78.00, 82.00, 85.00, 87.50, 90.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 85.10
Take Profit 88.00, 90.00
Stop Loss 83.00
Key Levels 78.00, 82.00, 85.00, 87.50, 90.00
Current trend
Last week, Walmart Inc. published a quarterly report with results higher than the expectations of The Wall Street. Revenue grew 4% YoY to USD 123 billion, earnings per share decreased 28% YoY to USD 0.72, due to new accounting standards. The growth of comparable sales in the US was 2.1%, Internet sales grew by 33%. Despite a strong report, company’s shares traded near the 7-month low, which was updated in early May amid news about the purchase of 77% of Indian Flipkart for USD 16 billion. The deal will require an increase in the debt burden and will affect the decrease in earnings per share in the financial year 2019 by USD 0.25-0.30.
Last week, Walmart Inc. share price decreased by 1.94%. S&P500 went up by 0.73% within the same period.
Support and resistance
Last sessions, company's shares were influenced by "bearish" tendencies. Currently, the company's shares are testing the key support level of 82.00. 85.00 is a "mirror" resistance level.
Indicators show the strength of the sellers: the price has consolidated below MA(50) and MA(200), and MACD is in the negative zone. However, correction of #WMT quotes is possible in the near future. Positions are to be opened from key levels.
Comparing company's multiplier with its competitors, we can say that #WMT shares are undervalued.
Support levels: 82.00, 78.00.
Resistance levels: 85.00, 87.50, 90.00.

Trading tips
If the price consolidates below the support level of 82.00, one may consider selling #WMT. Potential profits should be locked in by orders at 80.00, 78.00 and 77.00. Stop-loss is at 84.00.
If the price consolidates above the resistance level of 85.00, one should expect a correction. The moving potential is aimed at the area of 88.00-90.00. Stop-loss is at 83.00.
Implementation time: 3 days.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA/NASD): general analysis 25 May 2018, 12:40

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 273.90
Take Profit 266.00, 258.00, 250.00
Stop Loss 282.00
Key Levels 250.00, 274.00, 288.00, 300.00, 310.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 288.10
Take Profit 305.00, 310.00
Stop Loss 280.00
Key Levels 250.00, 274.00, 288.00, 300.00, 310.00
Current trend
China reported a 15-25% reduction in taxes for imported cars since July 1, 2018, which will be profitable car manufacturers of such premium brands as Tesla and BMW. Next, Tesla reported a 6% decline in the price of Model S and Model X for the Chinese market. In Q1 2018, Model 3 Tesla was the best-selling sedan in the mid-range premium electric car sector.
During the last week, Tesla decreased by 2.35% against the growth of the S&P 500 index by 0.73%.
Support and resistance
The technical picture is mixed. The price is now consolidating. The trend is mixed. The instrument is testing local support and resistance levels at 274.00 and 288.00, correspondingly. Indicators do not give a clear signal: the price consolidated below MA (50) and MA (200); MACD histogram is near the zero line. It is better to open the positions from the key levels.
The comparative analysis of the indicators of the company and its competitors suggests the neutrality of its share prices.
Resistance levels: 288.00, 300.00, 310.00.
Support levels: 274.00, 250.00.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 274.00. The closing of the profitable positions is possible at the levels of 266.00, 258.00 and 250.00. Stop loss is around 282.00.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 288.00 with the targets at 305.00–310.00. Stop loss is around 280.00.
Implementation period: 3 days.

FDAX: technical analysis 25 May 2018, 12:06

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 12795.0
Take Profit 12645.0
Stop Loss 12850.0
Key Levels 12645.0, 12795.0, 12850.0, 13050.0, 13175.0, 13335.0
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 13050.0
Take Profit 13175.0, 13335.0
Stop Loss 12965.0
Key Levels 12645.0, 12795.0, 12850.0, 13050.0, 13175.0, 13335.0
FDAX, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the middle MA of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that start turning up. The RSI is falling, having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is falling as well, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

FDAX, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA14, EMA65 that start turning down and above the EMA130, SMA200 that are horizontal. The RSI is about to retest the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is growing, having formed a Bullish divergence with the price.

Key levels
Support levels: 12850.0 (local lows), 12795.0 (local lows), 12645.0 (April highs).
Resistance levels: 13050.0 (local highs), 13175.0 (local highs), 13335.0 (December 2017 highs).
Trading tips
The price is testing a strong support near 12800.0. Its breakdown would allow the fall to continue.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 12795.0 with the target at 12645.0 and stop-loss at 12850.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 13050.0 with targets at 13175.0, 13335.0 and stop-loss at 12965.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

XAG/USD: technical analysis 25 May 2018, 10:32

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 16.57
Take Profit 16.27
Stop Loss 16.67
Key Levels 16.00, 16.10, 16.20, 16.27, 16.35, 16.41, 16.50, 16.60, 16.67, 16.80, 16.90, 17.00, 17.10
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 16.70
Take Profit 17.10
Stop Loss 16.50
Key Levels 16.00, 16.10, 16.20, 16.27, 16.35, 16.41, 16.50, 16.60, 16.67, 16.80, 16.90, 17.00, 17.10
XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is traded between the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the zero line area, keeping the minimum volume, the signal line is directed horizontally. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, the oscillator lines are directed upwards.

XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument drops toward the midline of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the positive area, keeping a signal to open long positions. Stochastic crossed the border of the overbought area downwards.

Key Levels
Resistance levels: 16.60, 16.67, 16.80, 16.90, 17.00, 17.10.
Support levels: 16.50, 16.41, 16.35, 16.27, 16.20, 16.10, 16.00.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 16.27 and stop loss 16.67.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 16.70 with the target at 17.10 and stop loss 16.50.
Implementation period: 3–5 days.

USD/JPY: dollar is dropping 25 May 2018, 10:12

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 109.80, 110.10
Take Profit 110.50, 110.70, 111.00
Stop Loss 109.50, 109.30
Key Levels 108.26, 108.52, 108.92, 109.25, 109.76, 110.00, 110.43, 110.70
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 109.20, 108.90
Take Profit 108.50, 108.25
Stop Loss 109.50, 109.75
Key Levels 108.26, 108.52, 108.92, 109.25, 109.76, 110.00, 110.43, 110.70
Current trend
USD showed a stable decrease against JPY on Thursday, updating the local low of May 8. The reason for the development of the "bearish" trend was investors' assessment of the Fed's protocol published earlier, as well as Thursday's mixed macroeconomic statistics from the US.
Data from Japan also proved to be mixed and did not have a significant impact on the dynamics of trading. The index of leading indicators was worse than the forecast and amounted to 104.4 points in March against 105.9 points a month earlier. The index of coinciding indicators confirmed forecasts and rose to 116.6 points in March from 116.0 points a month earlier.
Today, USD shows strong growth against JPY due to the publication of weak data from Japan. Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food went down from +0.6% YoY to +0.5% YoY in May, which is worse than market expectations (+0.6% YoY).
Support and resistance
On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of mixed trading dynamics.
MACD is going down preserving a stable sell signal (being located significantly below the signal line).
Stochastic shows similar dynamics but is approaching its minimum marks, which indicates the oversold dollar in the short term.
Existing short positions should be left open for some time.
Resistance levels: 109.76, 110.00, 110.43, 110.70.
Support levels: 109.25, 108.92, 108.52, 108.26.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 109.76 or 110.00 marks. Take-profit — 110.50–110.70 or 111.00. Stop-loss — 109.50, 109.30.
The return of "bearish" trend with the breakdown of the level of 109.25 or 109.00 may become a signal for new sales with the target at 108.50–108.25. Stop-loss — 109.50, 109.75.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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