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EUR/USD: side tendency remains 23 October 2017, 13:54

EUR/USD: side tendency remains 23 October 2017, 13:54 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation BUY Entry Point 1.1737 ...

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Oct 23, 2017

EUR/USD: side tendency remains 23 October 2017, 13:54


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.1737
Take Profit 1.1800, 1.1880
Stop Loss 1.1630
Key Levels 1.1430, 1.1500, 1.1570, 1.1600, 1.1665, 1.1715, 1.1730, 1.1775, 1.1785, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1860, 1.1880, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000
Current trend
Euro has been trading in the wide side channel against USD since the beginning of October. The main catalyst for the change in the current trend and movement to the side tendency was the growth of investors' interest to the US currency in view of positive fundamental background and further tightening of the monetary policy by the Fed.
The paid got under additional pressure after the comments of ECB head on Eurozone monetary policy. Mario Draghi pointed out that for  the economy to restore it still needs serious fiscal stimulation. At the same time, the issue with Catalonia is a serious one, which puts pressure on euro.
During the week special attention should be paid to ECB decision on the interest rate and releases on key indexes and inflation. The USA will respond with durable goods orders, labor market, and GDP for Q3 2017.
Support and resistance
Today the pair dropped to the key support level of 1.1730 that will be difficult to break through. It is very likely to be corrected from this level with target at 1.1800. In this case the pair will continue to move within side consolidation. An alternative scenario will be reaching the level of  1.1730 and further decrease to the local minimum of early October at 1.1665. In this case the pair will consolidate in the downward range and the possibility of testing new maximums will considerably increase. The most likely target for this scenario is 1.1500, the lower border of downward range. Technical indicators don't give a clear signal about the growth or fall of the pair which indicates high possibility of consolidation in the side tendency.
Support levels: 1.1730, 1.1715, 1.1665, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1500, 1.1430.
Resistance levels: 1.1775, 1.1785, 1.1800, 1.1830, 1.1860, 1.1880, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000.

Trading tips
In this situation long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 1.1800, 1.1880 and stop-loss at 1.1630.

HP Inc. (HPQ/NYSE) 23 October 2017, 13:29


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 22.20
Take Profit 22.60, 23.00, 23.25
Stop Loss 21.75
Key Levels 19.75, 20.50, 21.50, 22.15
Current trend
HP Inc. has published the financial 2018 forecast with the results, which exceeded The Wall Street analysts. The company expects the YoY ETA at the level of 1.69–1.79 USD. HP Inc. Also plans to return to its shareholders not less than 3 billion USD from the growing free budget flow via payback of its own shares and dividends in 2018.
On November, 22, HP Inc. will publish the Q4 and 12-months reports of the financial 2017 year.
During the last week HP Inc. stocks grew by 1.43% against the growth of S&P 500 index by 0.02%.
Support and resistance
Since the beginning of the month the aggressive buying prevail in #HPQ. Last week the stocks renewed the year maximum. The issuer found a local resistance level at 22.15. The nearest support level is 21.50. The trade instrument has some growth potential. The indicators reflect the buyers’ strength: the price is set above МА (50) and МА (200); MACD is in the positive zone and growing. It’s better to open the positions according to the current trend.
The comparative analysis between the indicators of the company and its competitors suggest than its shares are underpriced.
Resistance levels: 22.15.
Support levels: 21.50, 20.50, 19.75.

Trading tips
If the price is set above the local resistance level of 22.15, it’s better to open long positions. Closing profitable positions is possible at the levels of 22.60, 23.00 and 23.25 partially. Stop loss is 21.75.
Implementation period: 3 days.

YM: general review 23 October 2017, 13:20


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 23283.0
Take Profit 23125.0
Stop Loss 23396.0
Key Levels 23283.3, 23396.0
Current trend
The euphoria in the US stock market continues, as Dow Jones approaches new heights. Right now the index is trading at 23347.5 and the nearest support level is at 23283.3.
 The demand is caused by the decision of the Senate to increase budget deficiency by over $1.5 trln. According to the comments by traders, the US stock market is about to face another bubble created by low interest rates and excessive liquidity invested into risky assets. The time of “cheap money” is coming to an end, as the Fed is planning to continue increasing the interest rate which may cause large-scale sales in the US stock market in the future.
This week the giants of technological and biopharmacological sectors Apple and Pfizer are to release their reports.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is at the level of 96 points and indicates possible correction of the asset from current levels.
Resistance levels: 23396.0.
Support levels: 23283.3.

Trading tips
Short positions may be opened after the level of 23283.3 is broken through with target at 23125.0 and stop-loss at 23396.0.

Visa Inc. (V/NYSE) 23 October 2017, 13:14


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 108.10
Take Profit 109.00, 110.00, 111.00
Stop Loss 107.00
Key Levels 103.00, 104.75, 106.60, 108.00, 109.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 106.50
Take Profit 104.20, 103.50
Stop Loss 107.80
Key Levels 103.00, 104.75, 106.60, 108.00, 109.00
Current trend
The board of directors of Visa confirmed the quarter dividends at the level of 0.195 USD, the growth is 18% YoY. The payment is due at December, 5.
Visa and Billtrust entered the strategic partnership in order to automate “business to business” (B2B) payments. Within the partnership the companies will improve the payment process of the virtual cards for financial institutions and corporate customers.
During the last week Visa stocks decreased by 1.02% against the growth of S&P 500 index by 0.02%.
Support and resistance
The strong upward trend has been prevailing in the issuer for quite a long time. However, at the moment the picture is mixed. Last week #V kept the round level of 109.00, which caused the correctional movement. The issuer has a potential for further decrease. The indicators’ readings are mixed: the price is set above МА (50) and МА (200); MACD histogram is in the negative zone and decreasing. The key trading range is 106.60–108.00. It’s better to open the positions from these levels.
The comparative analysis between the indicators of the company and its competitors suggest the neutrality of its share prices.
Resistance levels: 108.00, 109.00.
Support levels: 106.60, 104.75, 103.00.

Trading tips
In case of breakout and retest the level of 108.00 the further growth is expected. Closing profitable positions is possible at the levels of 109.00, 110.00 and 111.00 partially. Stop loss is 107.00.
If the price is set below the support level of 106.60, the correction to the levels of 104.20–103.50 is expected. Stop loss is 107.80.
Implementation period: 3–4 days.

GBP/USD: the pair is uncertain 23 October 2017, 12:47


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3135
Take Profit 1.3060, 1.2940
Stop Loss 1.3190
Key Levels 1.2817, 1.2940, 1.3060, 1.3180, 1.3300, 1.3427
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3245
Take Profit 1.3305, 1.3427
Stop Loss 1.3200
Key Levels 1.2817, 1.2940, 1.3060, 1.3180, 1.3300, 1.3427
Current trend
Last week the pair dropped to 1.3180 (Murrey level [4/8]) where it currently remains. Generally, the market is uncertain before the meeting of the Bank of England scheduled for the next week. Right now the regulator is in a difficult situation: it needs to solve the problem of high inflation and at the same time deal with low salaries that push down the citizens' purchasing capacity. Investors wait for the Bank of England to increase the interest rate and are not ready to be active yet.
Ongoing Brexit negotiations remain a negative background for the British currency. The delay causes more and more concerns among businesses in the UK. According to BBC, major British business structures including the Institute of Directors (IoD) and the  Conference of British Industry (CBI) wrote a letter to Minister David Davis asking him to regulate the issues in question as quickly as possible. Otherwise the country may lose a considerable share of workplaces and investments. The process is already on: for example,  Goldman Sachs started to reduce the staffing of its London representative office and to increase it in Frankfurt.
Support and resistance
Technically in the D1 chart the price is near the key level of 1.3180 (Murrey [4/8]). It breaks the main trading area into two halves showing market uncertainty. Indicators don't give a clear signal: the volume of MACD histogram is minor, and Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards. The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3180 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands may lead to further growth to 1.3305 (Murrey [5/8]) and1.3427 (Murrey [6/8]). Otherwise the targets of the decrease will be 1.3060 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.2940 (Murrey [2/8]).
Support levels: 1.3060, 1.2940, 1.2817.
Resistance levels: 1.3180, 1.3300, 1.3427.

Trading tips
In the current situation short positions may be opened from the level of 1.3135 with targets at 1.3060, 1.2940 and stop-loss at 1.3190. Long positions with targets at 1.3305 and 1.3427 may be opened from the level of 1.3245. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3200.

XAG/USD: technical analysis 23 October 2017, 09:50


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 16.94
Take Profit 17.50
Stop Loss 16.75
Key Levels 16.35, 16.50, 16.65, 16.75, 16.89, 17.00, 17.10, 17.19, 17.30, 17.50
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 16.75
Take Profit 16.35
Stop Loss 17.00
Key Levels 16.35, 16.50, 16.65, 16.75, 16.89, 17.00, 17.10, 17.19, 17.30, 17.50
XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart the pair is moving in the sideways channel, formed by the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger Bands, the nearest support level is the middle line of the indicator at the level of 16.89. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are minimal, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line upwards, after which the buy signal will be formed. Stochastic is in the neutral zone on the border with the oversold area, the line is reversing upwards.

XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart the instrument is trading within the middle line and the lower border of Bollinger Bands, the nearest support levels is at 16.85 – the lover border of the indicator. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping a weak signal to open short positions. Stochastic is on the border of the neutral zone with the oversold area, its lines are pointed downwards.

Key levels
Resistance levels: 17.00, 17.10, 17.19, 17.30, 17.50.
Support levels: 16.89, 16.75, 16.65, 16.50, 16.35.
Trading tips
It’s better to open long positions at the current level with the target at 17.50 and stop loss at 16.75. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 16.75 with the target at 16.35. Stop loss is 17.00. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

USD/CAD: the pair is trading at new local maximums 23 October 2017, 09:32


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2645, 1.2655
Take Profit 1.2751, 1.2780
Stop Loss 1.2600, 1.2580
Key Levels 1.2447, 1.2500, 1.2537, 1.2597, 1.2639, 1.2700, 1.2751
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2590
Take Profit 1.2500
Stop Loss 1.2650
Key Levels 1.2447, 1.2500, 1.2537, 1.2597, 1.2639, 1.2700, 1.2751
Current trend
US dollar grew considerably against Canadian dollar as a result of trading on Friday, having updated a new local maximum since August 31. The reason for the occurrence of stable “bullish” dynamics was the growth of positive tendencies in the markets after the news that the US Senate approved a draft budget for 2018 that includes large-scale cuts of budget expenses.
Additional pressure on CAD was put by the data on Canadian consumer inflation and retail sales released last Friday. The volumes of retail sales in August reduced by 0.3% MoM after growth by 0.4% in July. Analysts expected growth by 0.5% MoM. CPI in September grew by 0.2% MoM which was better than previous dynamics of +0.1% but failed to meet the analysts' expectations of +0.3%. Basic CPI kept previous growth rate of +0.1% MoM against the forecast of +0.3%.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate moderate growth. The price range is widening. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic preserves stable upward direction and quickly approaches its maximum values.
Resistance levels: 1.2639, 1.2700, 1.2751.
Support levels: 1.2597, 1.2537, 1.2500, 1.2447.


Trading tips
Long positions may be opened after the breakthrough of the levels of 1.2639, 1.2650 with targets at 1.2751, 1.2780 and stop-loss at 1.2600, 1.2580. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
A reversal near current price levels with a breakdown of the level of 1.2600 may be a signal for the beginning of corrective sales with targets at 1.2500 and stop-loss at 1.2650. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar is under the pressure 23 October 2017, 09:06


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY LIMIT
Entry Point 0.6930
Take Profit 0.7053, 0.7100
Stop Loss 0.6880
Key Levels 0.6861, 0.6900, 0.6930, 0.7000, 0.7053, 0.7100, 0.7144
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.6920
Take Profit 0.6861, 0.9840
Stop Loss 0.6990
Key Levels 0.6861, 0.6900, 0.6930, 0.7000, 0.7053, 0.7100, 0.7144
Current trend
In the end of the previous week New Zealand dollar was decreasing against the US one, renewing its lows since May, 22. Thursday’s and Friday’s «bearish» dynamics was the strongest in 2017 and was connected with the rapid growth of optimistic moods in the market upon the US tax reformation.
Senate approved the 2018 budget, which includes the reduction, and it can potentially provide the implementation of the large tax reformation, which has been announced earlier. The reformation is one of the main election promises of Donald Trump’s Administration. However, the implementation of tax cuts can increase the US budget deficit by 1.5 trillion dollars in 10 years.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are falling. The price range is widening. During the morning session on October, 23, the correctional growth is possible.
MACD is going down, keeping strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s better to keep current short positions in the short and very short term, but not to open new ones.
Stochastic is around its lows, which reflects that the instrument is oversold in the short term, and the correctional growth can appear.
Resistance levels: 0.7000, 0.7053, 0.7100, 0.7144.
Support levels: 0.6930, 0.6900, 0.6861.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 0.6930. Take profit is 0.7053–0.7100. Stop loss is 0.6880. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Strong breakdown of the level of 0.6930 can become a signal to open short positions with the targets at 0.6861–0.9840. Stop loss is 0.6990. Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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