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USD/JPY: return to growth 20 August 2018, 15:29

USD/JPY: return to growth 20 August 2018, 15:29 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation BUY Entry Point 111.05 Take...

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Aug 20, 2018

USD/JPY: return to growth 20 August 2018, 15:29

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 111.05
Take Profit 112.15, 113.25
Stop Loss 109.80
Key Levels 107.75, 108.15, 108.80, 110.85, 109.55, 110.00, 110.20, 110.50, 111.00, 111.40, 111.75, 112.15, 112.40, 112.85, 113.25
Current trend
USD continues to trade in a downward trend against JPY, despite significant growth against other competitors.
This happens only due to the growth in demand for the yen as a "safe haven" in a situation of global tension amid the introduction of the new US sanctions. But the current US policy can cause serious damage to the dollar because it ceases to be considered the most stable currency. The American economy is currently on the rise: this year, all major economic indicators are growing. Last week, strong data were published on retail sales, industrial production, and the labor market.
This week, Japan will release data on Manufacturing PMI and the index of leading indicators. The US will respond with data on the labor market, the construction market, and orders for durable goods.
Support and resistance
One and a half weeks ago, the pair left the ascending channel, but the probability of its return and preservation of the upward trend in the medium term is high. In the short term, the instrument is expected to grow to the first local maximum of the month at 112.15. Growth is possible to the annual local maximum of 113.25, with the possibility of testing new highs. After breaking down the level of 110.20, a reverse of the pair is possible with the target of 108.15 in the medium term.
Technical indicators on W1 chart and above keep the growth signal: MACD keeps a high volume of long positions, and Bollinger Bands are directed upwards.
Support levels: 110.50, 110.20, 110.00, 109.85, 109.55, 108.80, 108.15, 107.75.
Resistance levels: 110.85, 111.00, 111.40, 111.75, 112.15, 112.40, 112.85, 113.25.

Trading tips
In this situation, long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 112.15, 113.25 and stop loss at 109.80.

YM: general analysis 20 August 2018, 14:27

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 25683.0
Take Profit 25585.9
Stop Loss 25781.3
Key Levels 25585.9, 25683.6, 25781.3, 25878.9
Current trend
Dow Jones continues to trade within the upward trend: the price reached a strong resistance level of 8/8 Murrey or 25781.3. Even the worsening of US-Turkey relations did not affect the stock market significantly. US Secretary of State Mnuchin recently announced his readiness to introduce a new package of sanctions against Turkey, if the country's authorities do not release the American pastor. The Lira also accelerated its decline in these conditions.
If the trade wars grow stronger, the Fed may postpone the tightening of monetary policy to support the economy. According to preliminary forecasts, the interest rate can be changed not earlier than September. Some experts believe that the US stock market is overheated, and in the near future a global correction is possible. It is confirmed by the decline in the assets of emerging markets by more than 15% and the global decline in the shares of companies that deal with banking operations. Since the beginning of this year, they have lost about 23%.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is at around 98 points and reflects a possibility of a correction.
Resistance levels: 25781.3, 25878.9.
Support levels: 25683.6, 25585.9.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level 25683.6 with the target at 25585.9 and stop loss 25781.3.

Brent Crude Oil: general review 20 August 2018, 14:13

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 71.80
Take Profit 70.31, 68.75
Stop Loss 72.20
Key Levels 68.75, 70.31, 71.87, 73.43, 75.00, 76.56
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 73.50
Take Profit 75.00, 76.56
Stop Loss 72.10
Key Levels 68.75, 70.31, 71.87, 73.43, 75.00, 76.56
Current trend
Oil quotes have been growing since the middle of last week on reports of upcoming US-China trade talks on August 21-22.
Negotiations can resolve at least some of the contentious issues, although experts warn that there would be no quick results. Quotes are also supported by the probplem of oil transportation from the Perm oil basin. In this regard, the number of active oil rigs in the US for more than two months is within the range of 858-869 units, which is much lower than the peak values of 2014, when it exceeded 1600 units.
The current growth is likely to be limited, as long-term pressures on the market remain. Investors are still concerned about the trade war, which could cause a decrease in oil consumption in the two leading world economies. But the possible shortage after anti-Iran sanctions will be covered by Saudi Arabia, which was confirmed by the country's energy minister Khalid Al-Falih.
Support and resistance
Technically, the price tends to the upper border of the downward channel near the level of 73.43 (Murrey [3/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands). After its breakdown, growth can be continued to 75.00 (Murrey [4/8]) and 76.56 (Murrey [5/8]).  The consolidation of the price below 71.87 will lead to the decline to the levels of 70.31 (Murrey [1/8]) and 68.75 (Murrey [0/8]).
Technical indicators show growth: Stochastic reversed up, MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone. However, the growth potential is seen as limited.
Support levels: 71.87, 70.31, 68.75.
Resistance levels: 73.43, 75.00, 76.56.

Trading tips
Sell positions may be opened below 71.87 with targets at 70.31, 68.75 and stop loss at 72.20.
Buy positions may be opened above 73.43 with targets at 75.00, 76.56 and stop loss at 72.10.
Implementation time: 3-5 days.

USD/CAD: technical analysis 20 August 2018, 11:34

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3030
Take Profit 1.2960
Stop Loss 1.3060
Key Levels 1.2928, 1.2960, 1.2998, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3175, 1.3287
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3120
Take Profit 1.3175
Stop Loss 1.3090
Key Levels 1.2928, 1.2960, 1.2998, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3175, 1.3287
USD/CAD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument was corrected to the midline of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is around the zero line, its volumes are minimal. Stochastic is in the neutral region, the oscillator lines are directed downwards.

USD/CAD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument moves sideways within the corridor formed by the borders of Bollinger bands. MACD histogram is in the negative area, its volumes are minimal, the signal line is ready to cross the zero line downwards, after which a signal to open short positions will be received. Stochastic crossed the oversold zone downwards, the oscillator lines move horizontally.

Key Levels
Resistance levels: 1.3100, 1.3175, 1.3287.
Support levels: 1.3050, 1.2998, 1.2960, 1.2928.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3030 with the target at 1.2960 and stop loss 1.3060.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3120 with the target at 1.3175 and stop loss 1.3090.
Implementation period: 1–3 days.

Bitcoin: technical analysis 20 August 2018, 11:16

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 6400.00
Take Profit 6250.00
Stop Loss 6450.00
Key Levels 6093.75, 6250.00, 6406.25, 6471.00, 6562.50, 6718.75
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 6480.00
Take Profit 6562.50
Stop Loss 6400.00
Key Levels 6093.75, 6250.00, 6406.25, 6471.00, 6562.50, 6718.75
Current trend
Due to the poor trading activity, Bitcoin prices were corrected to the mid-range of Bollinger bands 6406.25 (Murrey [5/8]), where they are consolidating now. Technical indicators mainly reflect the preservation of the sideways trend. Bollinger bands are directed sideways. The volumes of MACD are in the positive zone and move along the zero line. Stochastic reversed down, signaling the possibility of a downward trend development. If sellers manage to drop the rate below the level of 6406.25, then the downward trend towards the lower border of Bollinger bands at 6250.00 level (Murrey [4/8]) may develop.
A rebound from level 6406.25 will let the price a return to the upper border of Bollinger bands 6562.50 (Murrey [6/8]).
Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 6471.00, 6562.50, 6718.75.
Support levels: 6406.25, 6250.00, 6093.75.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the level of 6406.25 with the target around ​​6250.00 and stop loss at the level of 6450.00.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 6471.00 with the target around ​​6562.50 and stop loss 6400.00.

3M Company (MMM/NYSE): general review 20 August 2018, 11:07

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 205.60
Take Profit 209.00, 212.00, 215.00
Stop Loss 202.00
Key Levels 194.00, 198.00, 202.00, 205.50, 209.00, 212.60
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 201.90
Take Profit 197.00, 194.00
Stop Loss 205.50
Key Levels 194.00, 198.00, 202.00, 205.50, 209.00, 212.60
Current trend
Shares of 3M Company decreased by 3.57% since the beginning of August. Earlier the company published a strong quarterly report with results higher than market expectations, and also raised its annual earnings per share forecast. Since the beginning of the year, the emitter's quotes drop by 13.00%.
The Board of Directors of 3M Company declared quarterly dividends in the amount of USD 1,36 per share payable on September 12.
During the previous week, the emitter's shares grew by 1.39%. S&P500 went up by 0.64% within the same period.
Support and resistance
Last sessions, #MMM's shares were influenced by "bearish" tendencies. Currently, the local support and resistance levels are 202.00 and 205.50 respectively. The company's shares have the potential for further recovery.
Indicators don't give a clear signal: the price crossed MA(50), and MACD is located near the zero mark. Positions are to be opened from key levels.
Comparing company's multiplier with its competitors in the industry, we can say that #MMM shares are neutral.
Support levels: 202.00, 198.00, 194.00.
Resistance levels: 205.50, 209.00, 212.60.

Trading tips
If the price consolidates above the resistance level of 205.50, further growth of #MMM quotes is possible. Potential profits should be locked in by orders at 209.00, 212.00, and 215.00. Stop loss –202.00.
If the price consolidates below 202.00, one may consider selling the company's stock. The moving potential is aimed at the area of 197.00-194.00. Stop loss – 205.50.
Implementation time: 3 days.

Visa Inc. (V/NYSE): general analysis 20 August 2018, 11:02

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 143.10
Take Profit 146.00, 148.00, 150.00
Stop Loss 140.00
Key Levels 132.00, 136.00, 139.50, 143.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 139.40
Take Profit 135.00, 133.00
Stop Loss 142.00
Key Levels 132.00, 136.00, 139.50, 143.00
Current trend
Since the beginning of August, Visa shares have strengthened by 3.38% and now are trading near the 52-week high. Since the beginning of the year, the price grew by 23.95%. At the end of July, the company published another strong quarterly report, exceeding market expectations for earnings per share by 10%. In 2018, Visa predicts profit growth of 32%, in the next 2 years – by 16%.
Over the past week, Visa quotes rose 1.15% against the growth of S&P 500 index by 0.64%.
Support and resistance
At the moment, the company's shares are consolidated. The issuer is testing historical highs. The key levels of support and resistance are 139.50 and 143.00. In the near future, a technical correction after a protracted rally is not excluded. Indicators do not give a clear signal: the price was fixed above MA (50) and MA (200); MACD histogram is near the zero line. It is better to open the positions from the key levels.
The comparative analysis of the indicators of the company and its competitors suggests the neutrality of its share prices.
Resistance levels: 143.00.
Support levels: 139.50, 136.00, 132.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price is fixed above the level of 143.00. 146.00, 148.00 and 150.00. The closing of the profitable positions is possible at the levels. Stop loss is 140.00.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 139.50 with the targets at 135.00–133.00. Stop loss is 142.00.
Implementation period: 3 days.

USD/CHF: the instrument is consolidating 20 August 2018, 10:27

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.9975, 0.9985
Take Profit 1.0020, 1.0032
Stop Loss 0.9955
Key Levels 0.9863, 0.9892, 0.9918, 0.9952, 0.9982, 1.0000, 1.0032
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9920, 0.9910
Take Profit 0.9880, 0.9863
Stop Loss 0.9945
Key Levels 0.9863, 0.9892, 0.9918, 0.9952, 0.9982, 1.0000, 1.0032
Current trend
USD showed a moderate decline against CHF on August 17, being pressured by corrective sentiments and quick profits fixing.
Investors continue to monitor global trade and geopolitics. In response to the increase in duties on American goods by Turkey and the refusal to release the arrested US pastor Andrew Brunson, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said that the US is ready to impose stronger sanctions against Turkey, after which the lira began to weaken again. Regarding the upcoming US-China trade negotiations, the US administration sends conflicting signals. On the one hand, President Trump's economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, welcomed them, believing that the discussion could yield good results. On the other hand, President Trump himself noted that the PRC government cannot offer the US an acceptable agreement, which means continued mutual tariff pressures.
Recall that the negotiations should be held on August 21-22, and already on August 23, new import duties will come into effect.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range narrows, remaining very uncomfortable for the development of trend structures. The MACD indicator stretches along the zero line, indicating a long flat period, which persists since the beginning of August. Stochastic grows, quickly approaching its maximum marks.
Technical indicators remain uninformative, so one should wait for new trade signals to appear.
Resistance levels: 0.9952, 0.9982, 1.0000, 1.0032.
Support levels: 0.9918, 0.9892, 0.9863.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 0.9970-0.9982 when appropriate signals from the technical indicators appear. Take-profit — 1.0020-1.0032. Stop loss – 0.9955. Implementation time: 2-3 days.
The breakdown of 0.9925-0.9918 may serve as a signal to the beginning of sales with the target at 0.9880 or 0.9863. Stop loss – 0.9945. Implementation time: 2-3 days.

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