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GBP/USD: general analysis 22 January 2019, 14:09

GBP/USD: general analysis 22 January 2019, 14:09 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 1.2870...

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Jan 22, 2019

GBP/USD: general analysis 22 January 2019, 14:09

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2870
Take Profit 1.2817, 1.2770
Stop Loss 1.2910
Key Levels 1.2695, 1.2770, 1.2817, 1.2940, 1.3060
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2945
Take Profit 1.3060
Stop Loss 1.2900
Key Levels 1.2695, 1.2770, 1.2817, 1.2940, 1.3060
Current trend
The GBP/USD pair started the week with growth and is now trading at 1.2915 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%).
On Monday, Prime Minister Theresa May presented a backup action plan for Brexit. However, it is not much different from the original, rejected by parliament. May proposed to seek further concessions from the EU on the Irish border and rejected the possibility of a second referendum again. The implementation of this plan is doubtful since the EU authorities have repeatedly stated that they will not change the terms of the deal. With the threat of a tight Brexit, the British government can cancel the action of Article 50, which encourages investors.
GBP is supported by strong data from the UK labor market. November Average Earning including Bonus (3 m/g) increased by 3.4%, exceeding market expectations (3.3%) and the inflation rate, and reached a ten-year maximum. The unemployment rate fell from 4.1% to 4.0% in November.
Support and resistance
Now the price is testing the support zone of 1.2915 (Fibonacci 23.6%) – 1.2940 (Murrey [6/8]). If the instrument consolidates above it, the rate may rise to the level of 1.3060 (Murrey [7/8]). However, the downward reversal of Stochastic and its exit from the overbought zone suggest the possibility of a correction to the levels of 1.2817 (Murrey [5/8]) and 1.2770 (the middle line of Bollinger bands).
Resistance levels: 1.2940, 1.3060.
Support levels: 1.2817, 1.2770, 1.2695.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2870 with the targets at 1.2817, 1.2770 and stop loss around ​​1.2910.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.2940 with the target at 1.3060 and stop loss 1.2900.
Implementation period: 4–7 days.

AUD/USD: technical analysis 22 January 2019, 10:32

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.7122
Take Profit 0.7078
Stop Loss 0.7150
Key Levels 0.6978, 0.7016, 0.7078, 0.7106, 0.7116, 0.7146, 0.7165, 0.7181, 0.7205, 0.7224, 0.7235
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.7165
Take Profit 0.7220
Stop Loss 0.7135
Key Levels 0.6978, 0.7016, 0.7078, 0.7106, 0.7116, 0.7146, 0.7165, 0.7181, 0.7205, 0.7224, 0.7235
AUD/USD, D1
On the D1 chart the pair is moving in a lateral channel formed by the top and center lines of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is near the zero level, and its volume is minimal. The signal line is about to cross the zero level from below, and then a signal to open long positions will be formed. Stochastic is about to cross the oversold area border from above.

AUD/USD, H4
On the H4 chart, the instrument is declining along the lower line of Bollinger Bands; the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the downtrend in the short term. MACD histogram is in the negative zone keeping a signal for opening short positions. Stochastic is moving horizontally along the border with the oversold area.

Key levels
Resistance levels: 0.7146, 0.7165, 0.7181, 0.7205, 0.7224, 0.7235.
Support levels: 0.7116, 0.7106, 0.7078, 0.7016, 0.6978.
Trading tips
Short positions may be opened from the current level with target at 0.7078 and stop loss at 0.7150.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7165 with target at 0.7220. Stop loss — 0.7135.
Implementation time: 1-3 days.

CAC: technical analysis 22 January 2019, 10:30

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 4848.9
Take Profit 4780.0, 4730.0, 4650.0
Stop Loss 4890.0
Key Levels 4650.0, 4730.0, 4780.0, 4890.0, 4930.0, 5035.0
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 4930.0
Take Profit 5035.0
Stop Loss 4890.0
Key Levels 4650.0, 4730.0, 4780.0, 4890.0, 4930.0, 5035.0
CAC, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is approaching the border of the overbought zone. The Composite is forming a Bearish divergence with the price.

CAC, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is testing from above its longer MA. The Composite is falling, having broken down its longer MA.

Key levels
Support levels: 4780.0 (local lows), 4730.0 (local lows), 4650.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 4890.0 (November 2018 lows), 4930.0 (local highs), 5035.0 (local highs).
Trading tips
The price has failed its strong resistance near 4890.0. The fall is likely to continue.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 4780.0, 4730.0, 4650.0 and stop-loss at 4890.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 4930.0 with the target at 5035.0 and stop-loss at 4890.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

USD/CHF: technical analysis 22 January 2019, 09:10

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.9995
Take Profit 1.0070
Stop Loss 0.9960
Key Levels 0.9550, 0.9805, 0.9850, 0.9909, 0.9950, 0.9990, 1.0038, 1.0070, 1.0106
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9940
Take Profit 0.9849
Stop Loss 0.9970
Key Levels 0.9550, 0.9805, 0.9850, 0.9909, 0.9950, 0.9990, 1.0038, 1.0070, 1.0106
USD/CHF, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is strengthening at the top of Bollinger bands. The key resistance level is 0.9990. The indicator is directed horizontally, and the price range is widening, which is the basis for the continuation of the upward trend. MACD histogram is being corrected at the zero line. Stochastic entered the overbought area, a strong sell signal can be formed within 2–3 days.

USD/CHF, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading within a limited price range. Bollinger bands are directed upwards, and the price range has decreased, indicating an intraday upward correction. MACD histogram keeps a strong buy signal. Stochastic left the overbought area, forming a sell signal.

Key levels
Resistance levels: 0.9990, 1.0038, 1.0070, 1.0106.
Support levels: 0.9950, 0.9909, 0.9850, 0.9805, 0.9550.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.9990 with the target at 1.0070 and stop loss 0.9960.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.9945 with the target at 0.9849 and stop loss 0.9970.
Implementation period: 1–2 days.

NZD/USD: technical analysis 22 January 2019, 09:09

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.6713
Take Profit 0.6645
Stop Loss 0.6755
Key Levels 0.6606, 0.6646, 0.6675, 0.6709, 0.6742, 0.6773, 0.6848, 0.6884
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6760
Take Profit 0.6810
Stop Loss 0.6725
Key Levels 0.6606, 0.6646, 0.6675, 0.6709, 0.6742, 0.6773, 0.6848, 0.6884
NZD/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument consolidated below the strong support level of 0.6740. Bollinger bands are directed sideways, and the price range is limited, the continuation of the downward trend looks like the most likely scenario. MACD histogram is being corrected in the neutral zone, the signal to enter the market has not formed. Stochastic entered the oversold area, a signal for opening buy positions can be formed within 1–2 days.

NZD/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading at the bottom of Bollinger bands. Key support is the level of 0.6710. The indicator is directed downwards, and the price range is unchanged, confirming the downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping a sell signal. Stochastic does not give a signal to enter the market.

Key levels
Resistance levels: 0.6742, 0.6773, 0.6848, 0.6884.
Support levels: 0.6709, 0.6675, 0.6646, 0.6606.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 0.6645 and stop loss 0.6755. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6755 with the target at 0.6810 and stop loss 0.6725. Implementation period: 1–3 days.

EUR/USD: euro remains under pressure 22 January 2019, 09:08

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.1380
Take Profit 1.1421, 1.1442
Stop Loss 1.1351
Key Levels 1.1268, 1.1300, 1.1333, 1.1351, 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1421, 1.1442
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.1345
Take Profit 1.1300
Stop Loss 1.1376, 1.1380
Key Levels 1.1268, 1.1300, 1.1333, 1.1351, 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1421, 1.1442
Current trend
Yesterday, EUR rose uncertainly against USD within the correction after last week’s fall. However, the pair failed to consolidate in the new positions and by the end of the session, lost its advantage.
EUR growth is constrained by negative PRC data. Chinese Q4 2018 GDP declined. The indicator fell from 1.6% QoQ to 1.5% QoQ and from 6.5% YoY to 6.4% YoY (the worst figure since 1990). Also, European investors are monitoring the situation around Brexit. Yesterday, Prime Minister Theresa May announced a backup plan for an agreement with the EU.
Today, January German and EU data on the index of business sentiment from ZEW will be published. According to the forecast, the number of pessimists in German business circles will increase: the figure will grow from –17.5 to –18.4. EU figure will decrease from –21.0 to –20.1 but pessimism will continue to prevail in European business circles, which may adversely affect EUR.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands move flat. The price range is virtually unchanged but remains wide enough for the current activity level. MACD falls, keeping a strong sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic reached its lows, reversed horizontally, indicating the growing risks of an upward correction in the super short term.
It is better to wait until the situation is clear.
Resistance levels: 1.1376, 1.1400, 1.1421, 1.1442.
Support Levels: 1.1351, 1.1333, 1.1300, 1.1268.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after a rebound from 1.1351 and a breakout of 1.1376 with the targets at 1.1421–1.1442. Stop loss is 1.1351. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of 1.1351 with the target at 1.1300. Stop loss is 1.1376–1.1380. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

XAU/USD: gold prices are declining 22 January 2019, 09:07

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1283.30
Take Profit 1292.69, 1298.32
Stop Loss 1277.00
Key Levels 1260.75, 1266.26, 1270.11, 1276.58, 1283.26, 1287.60, 1292.69, 1298.32
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1276.50
Take Profit 1266.26,1283-6 1260.75
Stop Loss 1283.26
Key Levels 1260.75, 1266.26, 1270.11, 1276.58, 1283.26, 1287.60, 1292.69, 1298.32
Current trend
Gold prices declined on Monday, updating local lows of January 4 and continuing the development of a strong “bearish” impetus formed at the end of last week. However, by the close of the afternoon session the instrument managed to recover most of its losses, which was caused by investor disappointment regarding the Brexit reserve plan, which was presented yesterday by Prime Minister Theresa May.
Additional pressure on the instrument was exerted by quite good macroeconomic indicators from China, which on the whole met the expectations of analysts and contributed to a certain increase in interest in risk in the market.
In turn, gold is still supported by sentiment in the Fed. The heads of the regulator agree that it is necessary to take a pause in the cycle of raising interest rates or at least revise the dates for the next increase. The next Fed meeting will take place on January 29-30.
Support and resistance
On the D1 chart Bollinger Bands are reversing downwards. The price range is expanding, but it fails to catch the development of correctional "bearish" trend at the moment. MACD is declining keeping a stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic keeps a steady downward direction, but is rapidly approaching its minimum levels, which indicates the risks associated with the oversold gold.
Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.
Resistance levels: 1283.26, 1287.60, 1292.69, 1298.32.
Support levels: 1276.58, 1270.11, 1266.26, 1260.75.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from 1276.58 as from support with the subsequent breakout of 1283.26. Take profit — 1292.69 or 1298.32.
A breakdown of 1276.58 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1266.26 or 1260.75. Stop loss — 1283.26.
Implementation time: 2-3 days.

ATT Inc.: wave analysis 22 January 2019, 09:06

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 30.94
Take Profit 34.28, 39.33
Stop Loss 27.95
Key Levels 24.00, 25.03, 26.78, 34.28, 39.33
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 26.70
Take Profit 25.03, 24.00
Stop Loss 27.30
Key Levels 24.00, 25.03, 26.78, 34.28, 39.33
The price is in correction and may grow.
On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction of the higher level developed as the wave (2). Now the formation of the third wave (3) has begun, within which the first entry wave of the lower level (i) of i of 1 of (3) has formed, and the local correction (ii) of I is developing. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction the price will grow to the levels of 34.28–39.33. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 26.78.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 26.78 with the targets at 34.28–39.33. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 26.78 will let the price go down to the levels of 25.03–24.00.

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