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USD/CAD: general analysis 21 September 2018, 12:37

USD/CAD: general analysis 21 September 2018, 12:37 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL Entry Point 1.2905 ...

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Sep 21, 2018

USD/CAD: general analysis 21 September 2018, 12:37

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 1.2905
Take Profit 1.2830
Stop Loss 1.2930
Key Levels 1.2830, 1.2878, 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2950, 1.2980
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2950
Take Profit 1.3015
Stop Loss 1.2920
Key Levels 1.2830, 1.2878, 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.2950, 1.2980
Current trend
Yesterday, CAD strengthened against USD after the growth of the US stock market and the overvaluation of interest in risky assets, provoked by the increase in the US government bonds’ yield.
The US trade wars remain the focus of investors' attention. Yesterday, another round of negotiations with Canada on NAFTA was held. It did not bring any breakthroughs. Controversial issues are the same: in particular, Canada opposes the possibility of buying Canadian media by US companies. Moreover, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said that her country intends to file a complaint with the WTO on the US increasing import duties on Canadian lumber. Both parties doubt that it will be possible to achieve new agreements in the near future.
USD was supported by US labor market data: Continuing Jobless Claims was revised from 1.705 million to 1.645 million, and Initial Jobless Claims reached 201K, which was 9K below the forecast. Canadian positive ADP Employment Change release supported CAD.
Today, the traders are focused on Canadian Retail Sales release and CPI publication at 14:30 (GMT+2), the market predicts high volatility.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair declines towards the lower border of Bollinger bands, the price range is extended. MACD histogram is in the negative area, forming a signal to open short positions.
Resistance levels: 1.2925, 1.2950, ​​1.2980.
Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2878, 1.2830.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.2830. Stop loss is 1.2930. Implementation period: 1–3 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.2950 with the target at 1.3015 and stop loss 1.2920. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

USD/CHF: dollar is under pressure 21 September 2018, 10:19

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.9645
Take Profit 0.9700, 0.9730, 0.9760
Stop Loss 0.9590
Key Levels 0.9510, 0.9553, 0.9580, 0.9600, 0.9639, 0.9675, 0.9700
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9575
Take Profit 0.9510, 0.9500
Stop Loss 0.9620
Key Levels 0.9510, 0.9553, 0.9580, 0.9600, 0.9639, 0.9675, 0.9700
Current trend
Yesterday, USD fell sharply against CHF, renewing the lows since April 17, which was largely due to the collapse of the US dollar index against the growth of the government bonds’ yields.
The US trade wars remain the focus of investors' attention. Yesterday, another round of negotiations with Canada on NAFTA was held. It did not bring any breakthroughs. Controversial issues are the same: in particular, Canada opposes the possibility of buying Canadian media by US companies. Moreover, Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said that her country intends to file a complaint with the WTO on the US increasing import duties on Canadian lumber. Both parties doubt if it will be possible to achieve new agreements in the near future.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are decreasing. The price range is widening, but not as fast as the “bearish” moods are developing. MACD indicator decreases, keeping a weak sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic is reversing downwards after a brief growth in the middle of the week. The indicator reflects that USD is oversold in the short term.
The indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend; however, at the end of the week, corrective growth is possible.
Resistance levels: 0.9600, 0.9639, 0.9675, 0.9700.
Support levels: 0.9580, 0.9553, 0.9510.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after a rebound from the level of 0.9580 and breakout of the level of 0.9639 with targets at 0.9700 or 0.9730–0.9760. Stop loss is 0.9590. Implementation period: 2–3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.9580 with the targets at 0.9510–0.9500. Stop loss is 0.9620. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

WTI Crude Oil: oil prices are consolidating 21 September 2018, 10:18

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY LIMIT
Entry Point 70.00
Take Profit 71.80, 72.00
Stop Loss 69.40
Key Levels 68.00, 68.60, 69.07, 70.00, 71.00, 71.80, 72.75
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 69.90
Take Profit 68.60, 68.00
Stop Loss 70.50
Key Levels 68.00, 68.60, 69.07, 70.00, 71.00, 71.80, 72.75
Current trend
Prices for WTI crude oil showed a decline on Thursday, having updated the local highs of July 11.
Published on Wednesday, the weekly EIA report recorded a decrease in US oil reserves by 2.057 million barrels, while gasoline inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels, and distillates increased by 0.8 million barrels. At the same time, the volume of production in the US increased by 100K, to 11 million barrels per day. Long-term support for quotes is also provided by the approaching introduction of the second package of US sanctions against Iran, which is scheduled for early November.
Traders today will be focused on Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the US, reflecting a noticeable increase in the number of drilling rigs by 7 units in the previous period. Further growth in the indicator could have a significant pressure on prices.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is expanding, while remaining spacious enough for the current activity level in the market. MACD is growing keeping a weak buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic keeps the uptrend, but approaches its maximum levels, which indicates the risks associated with overbought instrument.
Technical indicators do not contradict the further growth of the instrument in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 71.00, 71.80, 72.75.
Support levels: 70.00, 69.07, 68.60, 68.00.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from 70.00 as from support. Take profit — 71.80 or 72.00. Stop loss — 69.40. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
A confident breakdown of 70.00 may be a signal to further sales with target at 68.60 or 68.00. Stop loss — 70.50 or 70.60. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

ATT Inc.: wave analysis 21 September 2018, 09:50

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 33.43
Take Profit 34.85, 36.60
Stop Loss 32.95, 31.50
Key Levels 29.00, 30.11, 31.50, 34.85, 36.60
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 31.45
Take Profit 30.11, 29.00
Stop Loss 31.90
Key Levels 29.00, 30.11, 31.50, 34.85, 36.60
The price can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the downward correction of the higher level developed as a wave (2). Now the formation of the third wave (3) has begun, within which the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is developing. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 34.85–36.60. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 31.50.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 31.50 with the targets at 34.85–36.60. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 31.50 will let the price go down to the levels of 30.11–29.00.

Intel Corp.: wave analysis 21 September 2018, 09:45

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 47.20
Take Profit 50.83, 52.40
Stop Loss 44.00
Key Levels 41.50, 42.80, 44.00, 50.83, 52.40
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 43.90
Take Profit 42.80, 41.50
Stop Loss 44.30
Key Levels 41.50, 42.80, 44.00, 50.83, 52.40
The price can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the downward correction developed as a fourth wave 4 of the higher level. Locally the wave c of 4 has formed, and the development of the fifth wave 5 is beginning. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 50.83–52.40. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 44.00.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 44.00 with the targets at 50.83–52.40. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 44.00 will let the price go down to the levels of 42.80–41.50.

GBP/USD: wave analysis 21 September 2018, 09:41

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.3245
Take Profit 1.3474, 1.3615
Stop Loss 1.3096
Key Levels 1.2782, 1.2926, 1.3096, 1.3474, 1.3615
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.3090
Take Profit 1.2926, 1.2782
Stop Loss 1.3145
Key Levels 1.2782, 1.2926, 1.3096, 1.3474, 1.3615
The pair can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the downward correction of the higher level developed as a wave (2), and the development of the third wave (3) begun. Now the first wave of the lower level i of 1 of (3) is forming, within which the wave (iii) of I is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.3474–1.3615. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.3096.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.3096 with the targets at 1.3474–1.3615. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3096 will let the pair go down to the levels of 1.2926–1.2782.

EUR/USD: wave analysis 21 September 2018, 09:36

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.1773
Take Profit 1.1850, 1.1940
Stop Loss 1.1730
Key Levels 1.1463, 1.1515, 1.1650, 1.1850, 1.1940
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.1645
Take Profit 1.1515, 1.1463
Stop Loss 1.1690
Key Levels 1.1463, 1.1515, 1.1650, 1.1850, 1.1940
The pair can grow.
On the 4-hour chart, the upward correction develops as a wave B of (2). Now the wave c of B is forming, within which the wave (iii) of c of the lower level is developing. If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.1850–1.1940. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1.1650.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant during the correction, above the level of 1.1650 with the targets at 1.1850–1.1940. Implementation period: 7 days and more.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1650 will let the pair go down to the levels of 1.1515–1.1463.

AUD/USD: AUD is rising 21 September 2018, 09:27

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.7300
Take Profit 0.7346, 0.7362
Stop Loss 0.7270
Key Levels 0.7175, 0.7200, 0.7236, 0.7260, 0.7296, 0.7322, 0.7346, 0.7362
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.7265, 0.7255
Take Profit 0.7200
Stop Loss 0.7300
Key Levels 0.7175, 0.7200, 0.7236, 0.7260, 0.7296, 0.7322, 0.7346, 0.7362
Current trend
AUD rose against USD significantly on Thursday, noting a new local high since August 30. The instrument was supported by the publication of weak macroeconomic statistics from the US.
Existing Home Sales in the US showed zero dynamics after a decline by 0.7% MoM last month. Analysts had expected growth rate at 0.3% MoM.
In turn, AUD is pressured by the US-China trade war, which in the long term may cost the Australian economy a loss of 0.3%. However, investors are reassured by China’s intention to reduce import duties for its main trading partners, which can significantly support Australian exports.
Today, the pair is trading ambiguously, waiting for new drivers at the market to appear. Traders will be focused on macroeconomic statistics on business activity from the EU and the US, as well as data on consumer inflation from Canada.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart grow moderately. The price range is expanding, but it fails to catch the development of "bullish" trend. MACD indicator is growing preserving a stable buy signal (located above the signal line). The indicator is trying to consolidate above the zero mark. Stochastic, having reached its maximum values, reversed into the horizontal plane, indicating the overbought AUD.
Corrective trend is possible in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.7296, 0.7322, 0.7346, 0.7362.
Support levels: 0.7260, 0.7236, 0.7200, 0.7175.


Trading tips
To open long positions one can rely on the breakout of 0.7296, while maintaining "bullish" signals from technical indicators. Take profit — 0.7346 or 0.7362. Stop loss — 0.7270. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
A rebound from 0.7296 as from resistance, followed by a breakdown of 0.7270 or 0.7260 may become a signal to start sales with the target at 0.7200. Stop loss — 0.7300. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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