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NZD/USD: no reasons to fall 17 August 2017, 14:29

NZD/USD: no reasons to fall 17 August 2017, 14:29 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation BUY Entry Point 0.7301 Ta...

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Aug 17, 2017

NZD/USD: no reasons to fall 17 August 2017, 14:29

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 0.7301
Take Profit 0.7455, 0.7550
Stop Loss 0.7080
Key Levels 0.6810, 0.6970, 0.7050, 0.7130, 0.7200, 0.7275, 0.7335, 0.7370, 0.7420, 0.7455, 0.7550, 0.7600
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY LIMIT
Entry Point 0.7250, 0.7200, 0.7130
Take Profit 0.7455, 0.7550
Stop Loss 0.7080
Key Levels 0.6810, 0.6970, 0.7050, 0.7130, 0.7200, 0.7275, 0.7335, 0.7370, 0.7420, 0.7455, 0.7550, 0.7600

Current trend
In the end of July the NZD after significant growth against USD began to weaken. There were two man catalysts of the trend change. One is the growth of the investors’ interest in the oversold USD after positive key economy sector releases in the USA. The second is the fall of the demand on the New Zealand currency due to the RBNZ representatives’ commentaries upon the necessity of cheaper NZD to decrease the budget debt and minimize risks for the New Zealand economy. The pair began to fall, and investors began to get rid of the New Zealand currency, which made an additional pressure on the pair. Further RBNZ lowered the inflation expectations, so the NZD continued to go down. The August rapid fall of the pair is due to the inner economy situation in the county and not to the growth of the US currency.
In the end of the week the releases from the USA, which can affect the pair, will be published. Today the Industrial Production and employment market data, and tomorrow the Consumer Price index are expected.
Support and resistance
Yesterday the pair left the downward channel, broking its upper border. Today the pair continued to fall due to the grown of the demand on the USD, which is restoring the investors’ trust, but any negative main economy sector releases from the USA will cause the outflow of the assets from the US dollar, and the pair will form an upward trend.
Last few months all the indicators reflect the increase of the economy growth rate in New Zealand, so the growth of the pair can be expected in the middle term period. On the 4-hour chart technical indicators confirm the reversal, MACD reflects the rapid decrease of short positions volume, and Bollinger Bands are pointed sideways, showing slow reversal.
Support levels: 0.7275, 0.7200, 0.7130, 0.7050, 0.6970, 0.6810.
Resistance levels: 0.7335, 0.7370, 0.7420, 0.7455, 0.7550, 0.7600.

Trading tips
It’s better to increase the volume of long positions at the current level in and open pending long positions from the levels of 0.7250, 0.7200, 0.7130 with the target at 0.7455, 0.7550 in the middle term period, stop loss is 0.7080.

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD/NYSE/S&P500) 17 August 2017, 13:15

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 153.10
Take Profit 154.00, 155.00, 155.50
Stop Loss 152.00
Key Levels 149.00, 151.50, 153.00, 154.50, 156.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 151.40
Take Profit 50.00, 149.00
Stop Loss 152.50
Key Levels 149.00, 151.50, 153.00, 154.50, 156.00

Industry: household goods
Current trend
On Tuesday, August, 15, The Home Depot stocks decreased by more than 3%, despite strong financial report publication with record quarter sales. In the second quarter of 2017 the company ETA grew by 14% YoY, and the income grew by 6% YoY, exceeding The Wall Street analysts’ expectations. The Home Depot increased the year profit forecast by 13% YoY and the income one by 5.3% YoY in 2017. Strong quarter report didn’t prevent the issuer from fall due to the investors’ fears upon the decrease of the housing building market in the nearest future.
During the last week The Home Depot stocks fell by 1.94% against the growth of the S&P 500 index by 1.05%.
The comparative analysis between the indicators of the company and its competitors suggest the neutrality of its share prices.
Key levels
After the significant Tuesday’s fall the stock are in the correction. However, the technical picture in mixed. Key support levels are 151.50 and 153.00 correspondingly. Indicators don’t give clear signals: price crossed МА (50) and МА (200); MACD began to decrease. Positions can be opened from the key levels.
Support levels: 151.50, 149.00.
Resistance levels: 153.00, 154.50, 156.00.

Trading tips
If the price is set above the level of 153.00, find entering points to open long positions. Closing profitable positions is possible at the levels of 154.00, 155.00, 155.50. Stop loss is 152.00.
If the price is set below local resistance at the level of 151.50, its’ better to sell the stocks with the targets at 150.00-149.00. Use trailing-stop whole trading. Stop loss is 152.50.
Implementation period: 3 days. 

USD/JPY: FOMC minutes weakened USD 17 August 2017, 12:56

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 110.30
Take Profit 110.90, 111.60
Stop Loss 109.90
Key Levels 108.90, 109.30, 109.80, 110.25, 110.90, 111.60
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 109.75
Take Profit 109.30, 108.90
Stop Loss 110.20
Key Levels 108.90, 109.30, 109.80, 110.25, 110.90, 111.60

Current trend
On Wednesday the pair corrected to the level of 109.65. USD lost positions in view of weak July statitics from the US construction market and negative data of the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting. The members of the Committee expressed their concerns in the rate of inflation growth. Inflation may remain under its target evel of 2.0% for a long time, therefore the Fed may postpone making a decision on increasing its interest rate. On the other hand, yen was supported by strong data on the Japanese trade balance wich made up 418.8 bln yen. This also pushed the pair downwards.
During the day the market is waiting for the release of July data on the volume of industrial output in the USA. The indicator is expected to reduce from 0.4% to 0.3%. The implementation of the forecast may put additional pressure on USD and reverse the pair that has started to grow by now.
Support and resistance
Technically the pair has approached the area of 110.10-110.25 which coincides with Fibo correction 23.6%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands, and Murrey level [2/8]. If the price consolidates above it, one may expect further growth to the levels of 110.90 (Fibo correction 38.2%, Murrey level [4/8]) and 111.60 (Fibo correction 50.0%). Otherwise the price may resume its fall to 109.30 (lower line of Bollinger Bands, Murrey level [0/8]) and 108.90 (August minimums).
Support levels: 109.80, 109.30, 108.90.
Resistance levels: 110.25, 110.90, 111.60.

Trading tips
In the current situation long positions may be opened after the breakout of the level of 110.25 with target at 110.90, 111.60 and stop-loss at 109.90.
Short positions may be opened below the level of 109.80 with targets at 109.30, 108.90 and stop-loss at 110.20.

USD/CAD: general analysis 17 August 2017, 12:41

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2590
Take Profit 1.2500
Stop Loss 1.2620
Key Levels 1.2400, 1.2510, 1.2595, 1.2675, 1.2790, 1.2845, 1.2930
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2680
Take Profit 1.2785
Stop Loss 1.2595
Key Levels 1.2400, 1.2510, 1.2595, 1.2675, 1.2790, 1.2845, 1.2930

Current trend
Yesterday the USD/CAD pair lost 1%, despite the fall of oil prices and decrease of the Canadian government bonds yield. The main cause of the fall was USA President Trump’s decision to dismiss his two business counsels. Thus Trump is losing the support of business community, which has expressed discontent upon President’s reaction to the Charlottesville incident. In addition, the USD is under the pressure of the FOMC Minutes publication. Most of the officials have expressed concern upon the low inflation level, accented that the level below 2% would stay longer than expected. This means that the US regulator will postpone the interest rate rise until 2019.
Today in the evening the USA employment data will be published. The growth of Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims will let the USD/CAD pair to fall. Also, the traders will pay attention to FOMC Members Kashkari and Kaplan Speeches. The official’s commentaries upon the inflation and balance-sheet reduction can affect the further pairs’ dynamics greatly.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart the instrument is in the correction around the support level of 1.2595. Bollinger Bands are reversing sideways, the price range is widening, reflecting the development of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, keeping a weak sell signal. Stochastic is reaching the oversold area.
Support levels: 1.2595, 1.2510, 1.2400.
Resistance levels: 1.2675, 1.2790, 1.2845, 1.2930.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2590 with the target at 1.2500 and stop loss at 1.2620. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 1.2680 with the target at 1.2785 and stop loss at 1.2595. Implementation period: 1-3 days.

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX/NASD/S&P500) 17 August 2017, 12:38

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 54.00
Take Profit 54.50, 55.00, 55.50
Stop Loss 53.40
Key Levels 53.00, 53.40, 53.90, 54.50, 55.15
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 52.90
Take Profit 52.00, 51.50
Stop Loss 53.50
Key Levels 53.00, 53.40, 53.90, 54.50, 55.15

Industry: specialized cafes
Current trend
The reduction of Starbucks year forecast after the release of the quarterly report combined with growing worries of the investors about the company's ability to increase its business volumes continue to put pressure on the quotes of the emitter. Starbucks may face serious problems in case of further increase of the number of points of sale, because this strategy does not lead to the growth of sales anymore. The Wall Street analysts point out that the coffeshops are located to close to each other, and the company needs not only to update its business in the USA, but to reduce their number.
In the last week the stock of Starbucks dropped by 0.45%. S&P500 gained 1.05% within the same period of time.
Comparing company's multiplier with its competitors, we can say that Starbucks shares are neutral.
Key levels
Currently the technical picture in #SBUX indicates the development of a corrective movement. On Tuesday, August 15, the emitter kept the key support level of 53.00 which caused "bullish" tendencies. Currently the price is testing the mirror support level of 53.40. The nearest resistance level is 53.90. Indicators don't give a clear signal. Still, one may consider buying #SBUX.
Support levels: 53.40, 53.00.
Resistance levels: 53.90, 54.50, 55.15.

Trading tips
If the price consolidates above 53.90, long positions could be opened. Potential profits can be locked in by orders at 54.50, 55.00, 55.50. Stop-loss should be placed at the level of 53.40.
Further fall of #SBUX quotes is also possible. If the price consolidates below 53.00, one may consider buying the company's stock. There is potential of movement to 52.00-51.50. Stop-loss should be placed at 53.50.
Trading tips will be relevant for 3 days. 

XAU/USD: technical analysis 17 August 2017, 11:40

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1285.90
Take Profit 1291.30, 1295.30
Stop Loss 1282.00
Key Levels 1256.30, 1260.70, 1267.30, 1273.50, 1277.90, 1281.50, 1291.30, 1295.30
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1277.00
Take Profit 1270.00
Stop Loss 1280.00
Key Levels 1256.30, 1260.70, 1267.30, 1273.50, 1277.90, 1281.50, 1291.30, 1295.30

XAU/USD, D1
On the D1 chart the pair a returned to growth after short-term correction. The instrument is moving within a narrow range formed by the middle and upper lines of Bollinger Bands.
MACD histogram is in the positive area. The signal line is crossing the body of the histogram from below giving a signal for opening long positions.
Stochastic is in the neutral zone, and the lines of the oscillator are directed downwards.

XAU/USD, H4
On the H4 chart the instrument has reached the upper border of Bollinger Bands after which the growth has slowed down. The upward trend is still on.
MACD histogram is in the positive area and gradually increases its volumes. The signal line is around the zero mark. In case it is crossed, a strong buy signal will be formed.
Stochastic is in the overbought area and is getting ready to reverse.

Key levels
Support levels: 1281.50, 1277.90, 1273.50, 1267.30, 1260.70, 1256.30.
Resistance levels: 1291.30, 1295.30.
Trading tips
The opening of long positions seems preferable from the current price with targets at 1291.30, 1295.30. Stop-loss may be placed at 1282.00. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.
Sell positions may be opened from the level of 1277.00 with targets at 1270.00 and stop-loss at 1280.00. The implementation period is 3-5 days.

WTI Crude Oil: general analysis 17 August 2017, 11:28

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 46.76
Take Profit 45.77
Stop Loss 47.10
Key Levels 45.00, 45.77, 46.79, 47.40, 48.00, 48.60
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 47.50
Take Profit 48.00, 48.60
Stop Loss 47.05
Key Levels 45.00, 45.77, 46.79, 47.40, 48.00, 48.60

Current trend
WTI Crude Oil price fell after EIA Crude Oil Stocks change publication, which showed the decrease of the recourses by 8.945 million barrel per week, as the oil production level increased by 79K barrel per day to 9.502 million barrel per day.
Oil tried to grow due to the decrease of the recourses, but the data were not enough to compensate the negative effect from the growth of the oil production. While the global oversupply of oil maintains in the world market, the reports upon the growth of the production cause the negative reaction of the market, which leads to the fall of prices.
Support and resistance
Technical indicators reflect the development of the downward trend: Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards; MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone and forms a sell signal.
Sellers have tested the support level of 46.79 for some times, but couldn’t consolidate below it. The breakdown of the level of 46.79 will let WTI price to go down to the level of 45.77.
Support levels: 46.79, 45.77, 45.00.
Resistance levels: 47.40, 48.00, 48.60.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened open below the level of 46.79 with the target at around 45.77 and stop loss at 47.10.
Long positions with the targets around 48.00–48.60 will become relevant after the price is set above the level of 47.40. Stop loss is 47.05.

ASX200: technical analysis 17 August 2017, 11:10

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 5768.0
Take Profit 5743.0, 5723.0
Stop Loss 5786.0
Key Levels 5723.0, 5743.0, 5768.0, 5796.0, 5819.0, 5903.0
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 5819.0
Take Profit 5903.0
Stop Loss 5796.0
Key Levels 5723.0, 5743.0, 5768.0, 5796.0, 5819.0, 5903.0

ASX200, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is correcting down from the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains just above its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is testing its strong resistance. The Composite is testing its resistance as well.

ASX200, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is approaching its longer MA. The Composite is falling, having formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

Key levels
Support levels: 5768.0 (local lows), 5743.0 (local lows), 5723.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 5796.0 (July highs), 5819.0 (June highs), 5903.0 (March highs).
Trading tips
The price is trading near the upper border of its sideways channel. There is a chance of a downward movement.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 5768.0 with targets at 5743.0, 5723.0 and stop-loss at 5786.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 5819.0 with the target at 5903.0 and stop-loss at 5796.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

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