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GBP/USD: general review 17 August 2018, 13:31

GBP/USD: general review 17 August 2018, 13:31 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 1.2690 ...

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Aug 17, 2018

GBP/USD: general review 17 August 2018, 13:31

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2690
Take Profit 1.2573, 1.2451
Stop Loss 1.2740
Key Levels 1.2451, 1.2573, 1.2695, 1.2817, 1.2940
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2750
Take Profit 1.2817, 1.2940
Stop Loss 1.2700
Key Levels 1.2451, 1.2573, 1.2695, 1.2817, 1.2940
Current trend
This week the pair tested the 1.2695 level (Murray [0/8]) and then started to grow. The pound is supported by data on retail sales in the UK. The indicator in monthly terms increased from -0.5% to 0.7%, and in annual terms – from 2.9% to 3.5%. Experts note that good weather still contributes to sales growth, but they fear that a decrease in the growth of wages will affect sales negatively in the future. It should also be noted that the expansion of sales is due to the increase in Internet commerce, while real stores tend to reduce it and even close.
The attention of investors again switches to negotiations on Brexit, which resumed in Brussels. On Thursday, they were commented by Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt, who noted that Britain is ready for all scenarios and will survive even without a deal. But such a situation will be a big mistake on the part of the EU. The minister also noted that the government will consider the proposal on the adoption of the EU environmental and social legislation to facilitate the free trade deal.
Support and resistance
The price is at the level of 1.2695 (the lower limit of Murray range). The probability of growth to the levels of 1.2817 (Murray [1/8]) and 1.2940 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of the Bollinger bands) is confirmed by the reversal of the Stochastics in the oversold zone. The potential of the downtrend is far from exhausted, as the Bollinger bands are directed downwards and MACD increases voulumes in the negative zone. In the breakdown of 1.2695, the targets of the "bears" may be the levels of 1.2573 (Murray [-1/8]) and 1.2451 (Murray [-2/8]).
Support levels: 1.2695, 1.2573, 1.2451.
Resistance levels: 1.2817, 1.2940.

Trading tips
If the price goes below 1.2695, short positions will be relevany with the targets of 1.2573, 1.2451 and stop loss around 1.2740. long positions can be opened at 1.2750 with the targets of 1.2817, 1.2940 and the stop loss at 1.2700. Term of realization: 5-7 days.

NZD/USD: general analysis 17 August 2018, 12:31

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.6540
Take Profit 0.6450
Stop Loss 0.6600
Key Levels 0.6450, 0.6500, 0.6544, 0.6612, 0.6684, 0.6745, 0.6847, 0.6924
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 0.6750
Take Profit 0.6840
Stop Loss 0.6710
Key Levels 0.6450, 0.6500, 0.6544, 0.6612, 0.6684, 0.6745, 0.6847, 0.6924
Current trend
Yesterday NZD strengthened against USD due to the release of ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the United States. Initial Jobless Claims data exceeded the forecast, but the decline in Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey index and in Housing Starts data affected USD negatively.
Today, the pair continued to rise due to the increase in Q2 Producer Price Index in New Zealand. The dynamics can be affected by US statistics: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index release at 16:00 (GMT+2) and Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count publication at 19:00 (GMT+2). The market expects moderate volatility.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the downward movement is in the correction, the pair is traded near the lower border of Bollinger bands, and the price range is extended, which indicates a possible resumption of the downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative area, keeping the signal to the opening of short positions.
Resistance levels: 0.6612, 0.6684, 0.6745, 0.6847, 0.6924.
Support levels: 0.6544, 0.6500, 0.6450.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6540 with the target at 0.6450 and stop loss 0.6600. Implementation period: 1–3 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.6750 with the target at 0.6840 and stop loss 0.6710. Implementation period: 3–5 days.

WTI Crude Oil: into wide sideways consolidation 17 August 2018, 11:45

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 65.12
Take Profit 70.70, 74.00
Stop Loss 62.40
Key Levels 57.10, 57.75, 59.50, 60.75, 61.70, 63.35, 66.55, 67.00, 68.00, 68.75, 70.10, 70.70, 71.50, 72.65, 74.00, 75.00
Current trend
For more than one and a half months, the price of oil continues to fall. In addition, it continues to decline due to the US macroeconomic data. Another factor was the increase EIA Oil Rigs Count number and the growth in oil production.
Today, there is no high volatility in the market is expected.
Support and resistance
The price broke through the lower border and left the long-term wide upward channel, but the probability of a transition to a wider consolidation is high. Probably, the price will not immediately be able to break the key support level of 63.35 and continue to decline. From this level, the upward wave with the targets at 70.70, 72.65, 74.00 can form.
The main scenario is the formation of a sideways trend within the framework of 63.35–74.00, the channel may be narrowed.
Technical indicators reflect the growth of the pair, MACD keeps high volumes of long positions, Bollinger bands are directed horizontally, which also indicates the formation of sideways consolidation.
Resistance levels: 66.55, 67.00, 68.00, 68.75, 70.10, 70.70, 71.50, 72.65, 74.00, 75.00.
Support levels: 63.35, 61.70, 60.75, 59.50, 57.75, 57.10.

Trading tips
It is relevant to increase the volumes of long positions from the current level with the targets of 70.70, 74.00 and stop loss 62.40.

General Electric Co. (GE/NYSE): general analysis 17 August 2018, 11:27

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 12.15
Take Profit 11.80, 11.40, 11.20
Stop Loss 12.60
Key Levels 11.80, 12.20, 12.60, 13.25, 13.60
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 12.65
Take Profit 13.20, 13.60
Stop Loss 12.20
Key Levels 11.80, 12.20, 12.60, 13.25, 13.60
Current trend
On August 15, General Electric stocks renewed the 9-year minimum. After the publication on July 20 of poor Q2 financial results, the price fell by 10.34%, and since the beginning of the year by 29.54%. The key issue for General Electric remains the energy business, the company has already reduced the annual revenue forecast for this segment by $500 million. Considering the results of the first half of the year, the probability of reaching its own forecast of 1.95 billion US dollars remains rather poor.
During the last week, General Electric decreased by 4.95% against the fall of S&P 500 index by 0.46%.
Support and resistance
The "bearish" moods prevail. #GE price is now consolidating. The instrument is testing the support level of 12.20. The level of 12.60 is a local resistance. In the near future, a technical correction is not excluded. Indicators reflex the strength of sellers: the price was fixed below MA (50) and MA (200); MACD is in the negative zone. However, it is better to open the positions from the key levels.
The comparative analysis of the indicators of the company and its competitors suggests the neutrality of its share prices.
Resistance levels: 12.60, 13.25, 13.60.
Support levels: 12.20, 11.80.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 12.20. The closing of the profitable positions is possible at the levels of 11.80, 11.40 and 11.20. Stop loss is 12.60.
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 12.60 with the targets at 13.20–13.60. Stop loss is 12.20.
Implementation period: 3 days.

Mastercard Inc. (MA/NYSE): general review 17 August 2018, 11:17

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 205.10
Take Profit 209.00, 213.00, 215.00
Stop Loss 201.00
Key Levels 188.00, 193.00, 199.00, 205.00, 209.00, 214.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 198.90
Take Profit 193.00, 190.00
Stop Loss 203.00
Key Levels 188.00, 193.00, 199.00, 205.00, 209.00, 214.00
Current trend
The shares of Mastercard decreased by 4.91% after the publication of the results for the 4th quarter of the financial year 2018. The company's revenue increased by 18% YoY to $3.7 billion, net profit per share increased by 51% YoY to $1.66. Both indicators exceeded market expectations thanks to increased volume of payments by 50% YoY and successful expansion into the international market. Following the results of 2018 the profit growth is expected to increase by 40% in comparison with last year's numbers.
Over the past week, Mastercard shares rose by 0.05%. The S&P 500 index for the same period decreased by 0.46%.
Support and resistance
The issuer is in sideways motion; unidirectional trend is not observed. The technical picture indicates a possible correction of the company's shares. Indicators do not give clear signals: the price crossed 50 MA; MACD histogram is located near the zero level.
A comparative analysis of the company's multipliers and competing companies in the industry testifies to the neutrality of #MA.
Support levels: 199.00, 193.00, 188.00.
Resistance levels: 205.00, 209.00, 214.00.

Trading tips
If the price goes above the resistance level of 205.00, long positions will become relevant. The potential profit levels are 209.00, 213.00 and 215.00. Stop loss – 201.00.
If the price consolidates below the support level of 199.00, correction movement is expected. The potential profit zone would be 193.00-190.00. Stop loss can be set at 203.00.
Trading scenarios will be relevant for 3 days.

XAG/USD: technical analysis 17 August 2018, 11:09

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL LIMIT
Entry Point 15.00
Take Profit 14.30, 13.95
Stop Loss 15.20
Key Levels 13.75, 13.95, 14.30, 15.00, 15.20, 15.60
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 15.20
Take Profit 15.60
Stop Loss 15.00
Key Levels 13.75, 13.95, 14.30, 15.00, 15.20, 15.60
XAG/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading on the lower line of the Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing from below the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is turning up, having retested its recent support.

XAG/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is testing from below its longer MA, having left the oversold zone. The Composite is testing its quite strong resistance.

Key levels
Support levels: 14.30 (local lows), 13.95 (August 2015 lows), 13.75 (January 2016 lows).
Resistance levels: 15.00 (local highs), 15.20 (local highs), 15.60 (December 2017 lows).
Trading tips
The price is consolidating below the lower border of its previous descending channel. The fall could continue.
Pending sell order can be placed at the level of 15.00 with targets at 14.30, 13.95 and stop-loss at 15.20. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 15.20 with the target at 15.60 and stop-loss at 15.00. Validity – 3-5 days.

USD/JPY: pair in flat 17 August 2018, 10:47

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 111.20
Take Profit 112.00
Stop Loss 110.80
Key Levels 109.76, 110.00, 110.25, 110.54, 110.73, 111.16, 111.52, 111.85, 112.13
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 110.50
Take Profit 110.00, 109.76
Stop Loss 110.85, 111.00
Key Levels 109.76, 110.00, 110.25, 110.54, 110.73, 111.16, 111.52, 111.85, 112.13
Current trend
The US dollar rose slightly against the Japanese yen on Thursday, August 16, partially offsetting the sharp decline of the pair the day before. The corrective dynamics contributed to weak macroeconomic data from Japan.
Published on Thursday, data on Japan's trade balance were negative. In July, it showed a deficit of 231.2 billion yen. At the same time, the import index increased from 2.6% to 14.6%, while exports decreased from 6.7% to 3.9%. According to the Ministry of Finance, the trade balance deficit was formed due to rising energy prices and an increase in the supply of medical products and aircraft products to Japan.
In addition, investors drew attention to a significant reduction in investment in foreign bonds. Over the week of August 10, their volume fell from 1164 billion yen to 123.9 billion yen.
Support and resistance
Bollinger bands on the daily chart are directed downwards. The price range is slightly narrowed from above, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in recent days. The indicator MACD tries to turn upwards, keeping the former signal for sale (the histogram is located below the signal line). Stochastic turned down, reacting to a surge of «bearish» sentiment on Wednesday, August 15.
The current indications of technical indicators remain contradictory and do not form clear trade signals.
Resistance levels: 111.16, 111.52, 111.85, 112.13.
Support levels: 110.73, 110.54, 110.25, 110.00, 109.76.


Trading tips
To open long positions, you can rely on the breakout of 111.16. Take profit – 112.00. Stop loss – 110.80. Term of realization: 2-3 days.
Breakdown of 110.54 can become a signal to sell with the targets of 110.00 and 109.76. The stop loss is 110.85 or 111.00. Term of realization: 2-3 days.

USD/CAD: USD grows 17 August 2018, 10:44

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.3180
Take Profit 1.3258, 1.3275
Stop Loss 1.3140, 1.3130
Key Levels 1.2961, 1.3000, 1.3047, 1.3100, 1.3173, 1.3200, 1.3258, 1.3300
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 1.3146
Take Profit 1.3047, 1.3020, 1.3000
Stop Loss 1.3200
Key Levels 1.2961, 1.3000, 1.3047, 1.3100, 1.3173, 1.3200, 1.3258, 1.3300
Current trend
USD strengthens against CAD, recovering after a decline at the beginning of the week when the instrument stepped off its local highs. Development of the "bullish" dynamics is due to the growth of investors' interest in the USD as a result of tightening relations between Turkey and the USA.
Thursday’s Canadian data moderately supported CAD. July ADP Employment Change grew by 11600 jobs after a decline of 10521 in June. June Manufacturing Shipments increased by 1.1% MoM, slightly worse than last month's data (+1.5% MoM), but better than market expectations (+0.9% MoM).
Today, investors are waiting for the block of Canadian July consumer inflation data. CPI growth is expected to stay at 0.1% MoM and 2.5% YoY. BOC CPI Core is expected to stay at +1.3% YoY.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are moderately growing. The price range expands, letting the "bulls" renew local highs. MACD is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is directed upwards but is approaching its highs, which reflects that USD can become overbought in the short term.
The indicators’ readings do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short term.
Resistance levels: 1.3173, 1.3200, 1.3258, 1.3300.
Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3047, 1.3000, 1.2961.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3173 with the targets at 1.3258–1.3275 and stop loss 1.3140–1.3130.
Short positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 1.3173 and breakdown of the level of 1.3150 with the targets at 1.3047 or 1.3020–1.3000. Stop loss is no further than 1.3200.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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