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GBP/USD: general analysis 16 November 2018, 13:19

GBP/USD: general analysis 16 November 2018, 13:19 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation BUY STOP Entry Point 1.2840...

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Nov 16, 2018

GBP/USD: general analysis 16 November 2018, 13:19


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2840
Take Profit 1.3000, 1.3061
Stop Loss 1.2810
Key Levels 1.2634, 1.2695, 1.2756, 1.2817, 1.2878, 1.2940
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2750
Take Profit 1.2695, 1.2634
Stop Loss 1.2780
Key Levels 1.2634, 1.2695, 1.2756, 1.2817, 1.2878, 1.2940
Current trend
On Thursday, GBP fell against the entire market. Investors are disappointed after the resignation of four British ministers, including Brexit minister Dominic Raab. In his letter to Prime Minister Theresa May, he stated that he could not agree to the deal since it violated the promises made by the Conservative Party to British citizens. It weakens the position of May before the battle in parliament, which now may ratify the draft treaty with the EU. If the Prime Minister does not convince the deputies, then not only the “tight” exit of Great Britain from the EU but also a serious internal political crisis is possible. Labor Party representatives stated that without the deal, they will insist on a new general election and, possibly, on holding a repeat referendum.
Today, US October Industrial Production will be published, which may fall from 0.3% to 0.2%. It may not support GBP since investors are focused on Brexit.
Support and resistance
Now the price is testing the level of 1.2817 (Murrey [2/8]). After the breakout, it may grow to 1.2878 (Murrey [3/8]) and 1.2940 (Murrey [4/8], the midline of Bollinger bands). A breakdown to 1.2756 (Murrey [1/8]) will let the instrument fall to 1.2695 (Murrey [0/8]) and 1.2634 (Murrey [–1/8]).
Technical indicators suggest a decline. Bollinger bands are directed downwards. Stochastic is trying to reverse downwards. MACD grows in the negative zone. However, corrective growth within the downward trend is not excluded.
Resistance levels: 1.2817, 1.2878, 1.2940.
Support levels: 1.2756, 1.2695, 1.2634.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from 1.2840 with the targets at 1.3000, 1.3061 and stop loss 1.2810.
Short positions can be opened below 1.2756 with the targets at 1.2695, 1.2634 and stop loss around ​​1.2780.
Implementation period: 4–5 days.

NZD/USD: upward momentum is dying 16 November 2018, 12:43


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.6802
Take Profit 0.6600, 0.6420
Stop Loss 0.6920
Key Levels 0.6420, 0.6500, 0.6545, 0.6600, 0.6650, 0.6700, 0.6725, 0.6770, 0.6790, 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6905, 0.6950, 0.6970, 0.7020, 0.7050
Current trend
The pair has maintained an upward trend due to weak data on unemployment claims in the US and uncertain statistics on major US indices.
Despite the rapid growth, the trend is unlikely to continue, most likely, the pair will break off from strong resistance and go down. Even in a situation of weakening of the US currency and a favorable fundamental stats for NZD, New Zealand’s excessively soft monetary policy is putting serious pressure on the pair.
Today, special attention should be paid to data on industrial production in the United States.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the technical indicators have changed the signal to ascending, and on higher timeframes, they still show a signal to decline. Thus, MACD on the weekly chart indicates the preservation of a high volume of long positions, and the Bollinger bands are directed downwards.
Support levels: 0.6790, 0.6770, 0.6725, 0.6700, 0.6650, 0.6600, 0.6545, 0.6500, 0.6420.
Resistance levels: 0.6825, 0.6850, 0.6905, 0.6950, 0.6970, 0.7020, 0.7050.

Trading tips
In this situation, it is reasonable to open short positions at the current level with the target at 0.6600, in the medium term – 0.6420, and a stop loss at 0.6920.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG/NASD): general analysis 16 November 2018, 12:40


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1070.00
Take Profit 1100.00, 1125.00, 1150.00
Stop Loss 1060.00, 1040.00
Key Levels 1000.00, 1030.00, 1070.00, 1100.00, 1125.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1029.90
Take Profit 980.00, 950.00
Stop Loss 1046.50, 1060.00
Key Levels 1000.00, 1030.00, 1070.00, 1100.00, 1125.00
Current trend
Alphabet Inc. shares are trading at a premium of 5.6% against the October 3-month low. Since July’s 52-week high, the price has decreased by 16.2%. At the end of October, the company reported for Q3 of 2018, not meeting the expectations of the market in terms of revenue. The main source of pressure on the company's income was the slowdown in sales of equipment and devices before the launch of the new line of smartphones Pixel 3 and other products in the Q4.
During the last week, Alphabet Inc. decreased by 1.63% against the decrease of S&P 500 index by 2.72%.
Support and resistance
The recent trading sessions were quite active but no unidirectional trend is observed. Shares of the company are consolidating. Local levels of support and resistance are 1030.00 and 1070.00, respectively. There is a potential for recovery. The signals of the indicators are ambiguous: the price has fixed below the MA (50) and MA (200); MACD began to rise. It is better to open the positions from the key levels.
A comparative analysis of company multipliers and competing companies in the industry indicates the neutrality of #GOOG.
Resistance levels: 1070.00, 1100.00, 1125.00.
Support levels: 1030.00, 1000.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price is set above the level of 1070.00. The closing of the profitable positions is possible at the levels of 1100.00, 1125.00, 1150.00. Stop loss is 1040.00.
Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1030.00 with the targets at 980.00–950.00. Stop loss is 1060.00.
Implementation period: 3 days.

HP Inc. (HPQ/NYSE): general analysis 16 November 2018, 12:22


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 24.35
Take Profit 25.00, 25.60, 26.20
Stop Loss 24.15, 23.75
Key Levels 22.10, 23.00, 23.60, 24.35, 25.00, 25.60
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 23.55
Take Profit 22.50, 22.00
Stop Loss 24.20
Key Levels 22.10, 23.00, 23.60, 24.35, 25.00, 25.60
Current trend
Since November, HP Inc. shares lost 5.4% and are now trading at a premium of 4.9% against the October 3-month high. From a 52-week high of October 4, prices fell by 10.8%. HP Inc. announced a quarterly dividend payment of $0.16 in January 2019.
During the last week, HP Inc. decreased by 5.22% against the decrease of the S&P 500 index by 2.72%.
Support and resistance
At the moment, the company's shares are consolidating. The technical picture is ambiguous. The issuer is testing local support and resistance levels at 23.60 and 24.35. There is a potential for recovery. Indicators do not give accurate signals: MA (50) crossed MA (200); MACD histogram is in the negative zone. It is better to open the positions from the key levels.
Comparative analysis of multipliers of the company and competing companies in the industry indicates that the instrument is underpriced.
Resistance levels: 24.35, 25.00, 25.60.
Support levels: 23.60, 23.00, 22.10.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price is fixed above the level of 24.35. The closing of the profitable positions is possible at 25.00, 25.60 and 26.20. Stop loss is 23.75.
Short positions can be opened after the price is fixed below the level of 23.60 with the targets at 22.50–22.00. Stop loss is 24.20.
Implementation period: 3 days.

USD/CHF: technical analysis 16 November 2018, 10:28


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.0085
Take Profit 1.0125
Stop Loss 1.0068
Key Levels 0.9968, 0.9990, 1.0002, 1.0023, 1.0042, 1.0057, 1.0074, 1.0092, 1.0110, 1.0129
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.0045
Take Profit 1.0010
Stop Loss 1.0063
Key Levels 0.9968, 0.9990, 1.0002, 1.0023, 1.0042, 1.0057, 1.0074, 1.0092, 1.0110, 1.0129
USD/CHF, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading at the top of the Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed upwards, and the price range remains unchanged, which is the basis for further strengthening of the pair. The MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a buy signal. Stochastic does not give a clear signal to enter the market.

USD/CHF, H4
On the 4-hour chart, a correction of downward trend is observed. The key support is the level of 1.0040. The Bollinger Bands indicator is turning down, and the price range remains wide, confirming the decline in the pair. The MACD histogram is consolidating at the zero level and does not give a clear signal to enter the market. The Stochastic is directed sideways in the neutral area, a signal to open positions is not formed.

Key levels
Support levels: 1.0057, 1.0042, 1.0023, 1.0002, 0.9990, 0.9968.
Resistance levels: 1.0074, 1.0092, 1.0110, 1.0129.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.0080 with the target at 1.0125 and a stop loss at 1.0068. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Short positions should be opened below 1.0050 with the target at 1.0010 and a stop loss at 1.0063. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

HK50: technical analysis 16 November 2018, 10:16


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 25700.0
Take Profit 25100.0, 24600.0
Stop Loss 26100.0
Key Levels 24600.0, 25100.0, 25700.0, 26400.0, 26750.0, 27700.0
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 26750.0
Take Profit 27700.0
Stop Loss 26400.0
Key Levels 24600.0, 25100.0, 25700.0, 26400.0, 26750.0, 27700.0
HK50, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA65, EMA130 and SMA200 that are directed down. The RSI is growing, having bounced off its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

HK50, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains on the level with the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that are horizontal, and slightly below the SMA200, which is directed down. The RSI is testing from above its longer MA. The Composite is showing similar dynamics.

Key levels
Support levels: 25700.0 (local lows), 25100.0 (local lows), 24600.0 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 26400.0 (local highs), 26750.0 (September lows), 27700.0 (July lows).
Trading tips
The price is testing its medium-term descending trendline. There is a chance of a downward rebound, while its breakout would lead to a growth continuation.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 25700.0 with targets at 25100.0, 24600.0 and stop-loss at 26100.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 26750.0 with the target at 27700.0 and stop-loss at 26400.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

WTI Сrude Oil: general review 16 November 2018, 10:13


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 57.35
Take Profit 54.60
Stop Loss 57.65
Key Levels 54.39, 55.46, 56.60, 58.04, 59.11, 61.01, 62.45, 64.55, 66.41
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 57.45
Take Profit 59.35
Stop Loss 56.30
Key Levels 54.39, 55.46, 56.60, 58.04, 59.11, 61.01, 62.45, 64.55, 66.41
Current trend
On Thursday, the instrument slightly strengthened, despite API and EIA data, reflecting a significant increase in commercial oil reserves in the United States. According to yesterday's report by the Ministry of Energy, oil and petroleum products reserves in the United States rose by 10.27 million barrels over the week, while experts at Bloomberg predicted growth of no more than 3.2 million barrels. Today it is the eighth weekly increase in a row. The data of the Ministry of Energy, as well as the data of the American Petroleum Institute, published the day before, indicate a strong market glut.
Today at 20:00 (GMT+2) the publication of the Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms in the USA is expected. If the drilling activity in the states continues to grow, then WTI will break down the psychological support of 55.00 and continue to decline.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, which is the closest support level. The indicator is directed downwards, and the price range is narrowing, indicating a continuation of the downward correction. The MACD keeps a strong sell signal. Stochastic is going to enter the overbought area, a sell signal can be formed during the day.
Support levels: 54.39, 55.46, 56.60.
Resistance levels: 58.04, 59.11, 61.01, 62.45, 64.55, 66.41.

Trading tips
Short positions should be opened at the current price with the target at 54.60 and a stop loss at 57.65. Implementation period: 1 day.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 57.40 with the target at 59.35 and a stop loss at 56.30. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

XAU/USD: gold strengthened 16 November 2018, 10:09


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1217.45
Take Profit 1226.11, 1230.00
Stop Loss 1211.80
Key Levels 1200.00, 1208.14, 1211.80, 1220.45, 1226.11, 1233.08
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1211.75
Take Profit 1200.00
Stop Loss 1216.62
Key Levels 1200.00, 1208.14, 1211.80, 1220.45, 1226.11, 1233.08
Current trend
Yesterday, gold prices rose slightly, continuing the development of a confident “bullish” impulse formed the day before due to a noticeable decrease in the stock markets, which reacted violently to new failures around the Brexit negotiations. The further growth was prevented by the strong USD position.
Thursday’s US data reflected the growth in Retail Sales excluding Autos by 0.7% MoM in October after falling by 0.1% MoM in September. Analysts expected a growth by +0.5% MoM. Manufacturing PMI of the New York Federal Reserve Bank in November rose from 21.1 to 23.3 points, which was significantly better than market expectations of 20.0 points. However, investors were disappointed by the growth in the Initial Jobless Claims from 214 to 216K.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are reversing horizontally. The price range consolidated but remains wide enough for the current activity level. MACD is growing, keeping a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is growing more confidently but it is rapidly approaching its highs, which reflexes the possibility of a corrective growth of USD.
It is better to keep current long positions in the super-short and short term.
Resistance levels: 1220.45, 1226.11, 1233.08.
Support levels: 1211.80, 1208.14, 1200.00.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1216.62 with the target at 1226.11 or 1230.00. Stop loss is 1211.80.
Short positions can be opened after the rebound from the level of 1216.62 and the breakdown of the level of 1211.80 with the target at 1200.00. Stop loss is 1216.62.
Implementation period: 2–3 days.

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