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USD/JPY: upward momentum may resume 14 December 2018, 13:43

USD/JPY: upward momentum may resume 14 December 2018, 13:43 Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation BUY Entry Point 1...

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Dec 14, 2018

USD/JPY: upward momentum may resume 14 December 2018, 13:43


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 113.57
Take Profit 114.00, 114.50, 115.50
Stop Loss 113.20
Key Levels 111.75, 112.85, 113.15, 114.00, 114.50, 115.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY LIMIT
Entry Point 113.15, 112.85
Take Profit 114.00, 114.50, 115.50
Stop Loss 112.30
Key Levels 111.75, 112.85, 113.15, 114.00, 114.50, 115.00
Current trend
The pair continues to trade in a narrowing sideways consolidation, like most of major currency pairs. The flat market at the end of 2018 is due to the lack of important macroeconomic releases and decisions of the Central Banks.
Despite the weak data for Japan this trading week, the US dollar did not take advantage of this, and the pair remained in the channel. In addition, in December there were negative releases in the US, for example, labor market and inflation indicators dropped significantly.
Today, special attention should be paid to data on retail sales, industrial production and major indices, which will be published in the United States and might support the pair.
Support and resistance
After the news release, the pair may reach key resistances of 114.00, 114.50, but will hardly be able to overcome them immediately. Despite this, the trend remains upward in the medium and long term. Technical indicators on the 4-hour chart confirm the growth forecast: MACD shows an increase in the volume of long positions, and the Bollinger bands are directed upwards.
Support levels: 113.15, 112.85, 111.75.
Resistance levels: 114.00, 114.50, 115.00.

Trading tips
In this situation, the volume of long positions can be increased at the current level and pending buy orders can be set at the strong support levels of 113.15, 112.85 with targets at 114.00, 114.50, 115.50 and a stop loss at 112.30.

Brent Crude Oil: Murrey analysis 14 December 2018, 13:37


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 61.10
Take Profit 62.50, 64.06
Stop Loss 60.40
Key Levels 56.25, 57.81, 59.37, 62.50, 64.06, 65.62
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 59.30
Take Profit 57.81, 56.25
Stop Loss 60.50
Key Levels 56.25, 57.81, 59.37, 62.50, 64.06, 65.62
This month, oil quotes are generally within the lateral range of 62.50 ([0/8]) and 59.37 ([-1/8]). The price cannot leave it yet, and, apparently, forms a "triangle" with the probability to break out. The level of 62.50, which is the lower border of the Murray trading range, is seen as key for the "bulls". Its breakout may cause growth to 64.06 ([+2/8], H4), 65.62 ([1/8]), and 68.75 ([2/8]). If the instrument consolidates below the level of 59.37 ([-1/8]), a decline is possible to 57.81 ([2/8], H4) and 56.25 ([-2/8]). Generally, technical indicators confirm growth: MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is directed upwards.
Support and resistance
Support levels: 59.37, 57.81, 56.25.
Resistance levels: 62.50, 64.06, 65.62.

Trading tips
In the short term, long positions should be opened from the level of 61.10 with targets at 62.50, 64.06 and stop loss at 60.40. In the medium term, one should wait for the price to consolidate above the level of 62.50 with targets at 64.06, 65.62 and stop loss at 61.50.
Short positions may be opened if the instrument consolidates below 59.37 with targets at 57.81, 56.25 and stop loss at 60.50.
Implementation period: 4-5 days.

YM: general analysis 14 December 2018, 11:23


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 24218.0
Take Profit 23828.1
Stop Loss 24307.0
Key Levels 23828.1, 24218.8, 24609.4, 25000.0
Current trend
The Dow Jones index drops slightly at the opening of the European session. The nearest support level is located at 24218.8, if it is broken, the next target will be the level of 23828.1.
Market participants react to the negative macroeconomic statistics of the Asian market: the volume of industrial production in China was much worse than expected (5.4% vs. 5.9% a month earlier); retail sales also slowed down to 8.1% against 8.8% in November. Weak statistics may be due to trade wars between the United States and China.
As for the United States, yesterday's data on initial jobless claims came out better than forecast, reaching 206K. The yield on ten-year bonds has declined, although if data on the economy will continue to be positive, the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy, which in turn will be a positive signal for the growth of the risk premium for debt securities and adversely affect the stock market.
In addition, a negative point for the stock market is the decline in the value of General Electric's securities, which have dropped below $7, reaching the lowest level since the 2008 crisis.
Today, data on industrial production and retail sales will be published in the United States.
Support and resistance
The Stochastic indicator is at the level of 15 and signals a possible asset correction.
Resistance levels: 24609.4, 25000.0.
Support levels: 24218.8, 23828.1.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the support level of 24218.8 with a stop loss at 24307.0 and a take profit at the level of 23828.1

ATT Inc.: wave analysis 14 December 2018, 10:15


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 29.90
Take Profit 28.50, 27.50
Stop Loss 30.90
Key Levels 27.50, 28.50, 31.94, 34.28
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 32.00
Take Profit 34.28
Stop Loss 32.75
Key Levels 27.50, 28.50, 31.94, 34.28
The decline in asset prices continues.
On the 4-hour chart, the downward correction of the senior level as a wave (2) continues. At the moment, it seems that the formation of the wave C of (2) is nearing completion, within which the fifth wave of the junior level v of C is developing. If the assumption is correct, the asset price will continue to decline to 28.50–27.50. The critical level for this scenario is 31.94.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant below the level of 31.94 with a target in the range of 28.50–27.50. Implementation period: 5-7 days.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 31.94 will allow the shares to continue to rise to the level of 34.28.

Intel Corp.: wave analysis 14 December 2018, 10:12


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 48.29
Take Profit 53.30, 57.40
Stop Loss 43.25
Key Levels 39.34, 42.43, 53.30, 57.40
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 42.40
Take Profit 39.34
Stop Loss 43.45
Key Levels 39.34, 42.43, 53.30, 57.40
The probability of an increase is strong.
On the 4-hour chart, the downward correction as the fourth wave 4 of the senior level was completed. Locally, apparently, the fifth wave 5 began, within which the first wave of the junior level i of 5 was formed, and the local correction ii of 5 took the form of an irregular plane. If the assumption is correct, the rise in the price will continue to 53.30–57.40. The critical level for this scenario is 42.43.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant above the level of 42.43 with a target in the range of 53.30-57.40. Implementation period: 7+ days.
Alternative scenario
A breakdown and consolidation of the price below the level of 42.43 will allow the asset to continue to decline to the level of 39.34.

GBP/USD: wave analysis 14 December 2018, 10:10


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 1.2613
Take Profit 1.2475, 1.2412
Stop Loss 1.2735
Key Levels 1.2412, 1.2475, 1.2763, 1.2933
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1.2770
Take Profit 1.2933
Stop Loss 1.2710
Key Levels 1.2412, 1.2475, 1.2763, 1.2933
The probability of decline is still strong.
On the 4-hour chart, a downward correction of the higher level is being developed as wave 2. At the moment, it is likely that wave C of 2 is being developed, within which the fifth wave of the lower level v of C is being formed. The pair will probably reach the levels of 1.2475–1.2412. The critical level for this scenario is 1.2763.


Main scenario
Short positions will become relevant below the level of 1.2763 with a target in the range of 1.2475-1.2412. Implementation period: 5-7 days.
Alternative scenario
Breakout and consolidation of the price above the level of 1.2763 will let the pair grow to the level of 1.2933.

EUR/USD: wave analysis 14 December 2018, 10:07


Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.1357
Take Profit 1.1511, 1.1586
Stop Loss 1.1306
Key Levels 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1306, 1.1511, 1.1586
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.1300
Take Profit 1.1200, 1.1150
Stop Loss 1.1360
Key Levels 1.1150, 1.1200, 1.1306, 1.1511, 1.1586
The pair is likely to grow.
On 4-hour chart, the downward correction of the higher level is developing as a wave (2), which includes the wave C of (2). At the moment, it seems that the upward correction is forming as the second wave ii of C, within which wave (c) of ii is being formed. If the assumption is correct, the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1.1511–1.1586. The critical level for this scenario is 1.1306.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant above the level of 1.1306 with a target in the range of 1.1511-1.1586. Implementation period: 5–7 days.
Alternative scenario
Breakdown and consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1306 will allow the pair to decline to the levels of 1.1200–1.1150.

XAU/USD: gold prices are going down 14 December 2018, 10:04


Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 1247.10
Take Profit 1255.00
Stop Loss 1244.00
Key Levels 1229.84, 1233.08, 1237.16, 1240.00, 1247.00, 1250.66, 1255.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1237.10
Take Profit 1229.84, 1226.11
Stop Loss 1243.00, 1245.00
Key Levels 1229.84, 1233.08, 1237.16, 1240.00, 1247.00, 1250.66, 1255.00
Current trend
Gold prices declined slightly on Thursday, updating the record lows of December 7.
Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Thursday failed to provide significant support to USD, but investors were focused on the further development of US-China trade relations. Anyway, the published figure for the number of initial jobless claims for the week on December 7 dropped sharply from 233K to 206K, which was better than expected 226K.
Today, traders are focused on the US retail sales data. Analysts expect a sharp slowdown in November from +0.8% MoM to +0.1% MoM, which could have a negative impact on USD. There will also be published the November statistics on industrial production and preliminary December data on business activity.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is declining more actively, but is rapidly approaching its minimum levels, which indicates the risks associated with the oversold instrument.
Technical indicators do not contradict further development of the "bearish" trend in the short term.
Resistance levels: 1247.00, 1250.66, 1255.00.
Support levels: 1240.00, 1237.16, 1233.08, 1229.84.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1247.00. Take profit — 1255.00. Stop loss — 1244.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
A breakdown of 1240.00 or 1237.16 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1229.84 or 1226.11. Stop loss — 1243.00 or 1245.00. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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