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USD/CAD: general analysis 23 February 2018, 13:03

USD/CAD: general analysis 23 February 2018, 13:03 Scenario Timeframe Intraday Recommendation BUY Entry Point 1.2707 ...

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Feb 23, 2018

USD/CAD: general analysis 23 February 2018, 13:03

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 1.2707
Take Profit 1.2785
Stop Loss 1.2680
Key Levels 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2685, 1.2750, 1.2785, 1.2820, 1.2850
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 1.2670
Take Profit 1.2600
Stop Loss 1.2700
Key Levels 1.2490, 1.2550, 1.2600, 1.2685, 1.2750, 1.2785, 1.2820, 1.2850
Current trend
Yesterday US dollar strengthened against Canadian currency due to the positive US employment market data and negative Canadian statistics. However, as the sellers were focused on the stock market yesterday and were active, they weakened USD against its main competitors.
US Continuing Jobless Claims reached 1.875 million, which was below the expected number of 1.930 million and supported the national currency. Initial Jobless Claims volume reached 222K, which was also better than expected value of 230K, and reflects the strengthening of the employment market.
Canadian Retail Sales data disappointed the traders: the index decreased by 0.8%, while the growth of 0.2% was expected. Retail Sales ex Autos fell by 1.8%, which is the record decrease since January 2015.
Today the investors are focused on the Consumer Price Index release at 15:30 (GMT+2) in Canada, high level of volatility is expected in the market.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, instrument is growing along the upper border of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, the signal line crosses the zero line and the histogram’s body upwards, giving a signal to open long positions.
Resistance levels: 1.2750, 1.2785, 1.2820, 1.2850.
Support levels: 1.2685, 1.2600, 1.2550, 1.2490.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.2785 and stop loss at 1.2680.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2670 with the target at 1.2600 and stop loss at 1.2700.
Implementation period: 1–3 days.

Brent Crude Oil: technical analysis 23 February 2018, 13:02

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 65.75
Take Profit 66.98
Stop Loss 65.15
Key Levels 61.55, 62.55, 64.48, 65.77, 66.98, 68.34, 69.92, 70.79
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 65.00
Take Profit 64.10
Stop Loss 65.40
Key Levels 61.55, 62.55, 64.48, 65.77, 66.98, 68.34, 69.92, 70.79
Brent, D1
On D1 chart the instrument was corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone keeping a signal for the opening of sell positions. Stochastic is ready to cross the border of the overbought area from above.

Brent, H4
On the H4 chart, the instrument demonstrates side movement within the narrow corridor formed by the borders of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the positive area and gaining volumes. The signal line is crossing the body of the histogram from below giving a signal for opening long positions. Stochastic is located on the border of the neutral zone and overbought zone and is preparing to reverse down.

Key levels
Support levels: 64.48, 62.55, 61.55.
Resistance levels: 65.77, 66.98, 68.34, 69.92, 70.79.
Trading tips
According to technical indicators, in the short term, long positions could be opened from the current level with the target at 66.98 and stop-loss at 65.15. Implementation time: 1-3 days.
Short positions may be opened from 65.00 mark with the target at 64.10 and stop-loss at 65.40. The implementation period is 3-5 days.

Walmart Inc. (WMT/NYSE): general review 23 February 2018, 12:46

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 91.20
Take Profit 88.50, 86.00, 84.00
Stop Loss 94.00
Key Levels 87.00, 91.25, 95.00, 99.00, 102.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 95.10
Take Profit 99.00, 102.00
Stop Loss 92.50
Key Levels 87.00, 91.25, 95.00, 99.00, 102.00
Current trend
On February 20, Walmart reported for Q4 of the fiscal year 2018. The forecast for the fiscal year 2019 which is below expectations of The Wall Street, coupled with weak quarterly growth in Internet sales, put pressure of 11% on the emitter's quotes. In the Q4, Walmart's revenue increased by 4.1% (YoY) to USD 136.3 billion, exceeding market expectations; the earnings per share of USD 1.33 was below expectations by 4 cents.
During the previous week, Walmart shares dropped by 8.78%. S&P500 index went down by 0.51% during the same period.
Support and resistance
Since the beginning of this week, the company's shares have demonstrated negative dynamics. Yesterday the emitter formed a local resistance level of 91.25. 95.00 is a "mirror" resistance level. #WMT shares have the potential for further decline.
Indicators show the strength of the sellers: the price has consolidated above MA(50) and MA(200), and MACD is in the negative zone. Positions are to be opened from key levels.
Comparing company's multiplier with its competitors, we can say that #WMT shares are undervalued.
Support levels: 91.25, 87.00.
Resistance levels: 95.00, 99.00, 102.00.

Trading tips
If the price consolidates below the support level of 91.25, one may consider selling #WMT. Potential profits should be locked in by orders at 88.50, 86.00 and 84.00. Stop-loss will be placed at the level of 94.00.
If the price consolidates above 95.00 mark, the company's shares are expected to grow. The moving potential is aimed at 99.00-102.00. Stop-loss should be placed at 92.50.
Trading tips will be relevant for 3 days.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA/NYSE): general review 23 February 2018, 12:23

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 192.10
Take Profit 196.50, 200.00, 204.00
Stop Loss 187.50
Key Levels 170.00, 177.00, 183.00, 192.00, 199.00, 205.00
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 182.90
Take Profit 175.00, 170.00
Stop Loss 187.50
Key Levels 170.00, 177.00, 183.00, 192.00, 199.00, 205.00
Current trend
According to the February market of mobile Internet search in China, the largest search engine Baidu - "Chinese Google", is inferior to the market position in favor of Shenma from Alibaba Group, whose market share rose to 34% compared to 4% in October last year.
The media division of Alibaba Group has entered into an agreement with a subsidiary of Walt Disney to create the largest collection of animated content and enter Youku, the streaming video service of Alibaba Group.
During the previous week, the stock of Alibaba Group grew by 1.07%. S&P500 dropped by 0.51% within the same period.
Support and resistance
At the moment, the #BABA quotes recovered most of the losses after a significant correction earlier this month. Further growth of the company's shares is also possible. Key support and resistance levels are 183.00 and 192.00 respectively.
Indicators show the strength of the buyers: the price has consolidated above MA(50) and MA(200), and MACD is in the positive zone. Positions are to be opened from key levels.
Comparing company's multiplier with its competitors in the industry, we can say that #BABA shares are neutral.
Support levels: 183.00, 177.00, 170.00.
Resistance levels: 192.00, 199.00, 205.00.

Trading tips
If the price consolidates above the resistance level of 192.00, one should expect the company's shares to grow. Potential profits should be locked in by orders at 196.50, 200.00 and 204.00. Stop-loss will be placed at the level of 187.50.
If the price consolidates below 183.00, sales of #BABA should be considered. The moving potential is aimed at 175.00-170.00. Stop-loss should be placed at 187.50.
Trading tips will be relevant for 3 days.

NZD/USD: the pair consolidated in the upward trend 23 February 2018, 12:20

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation SELL
Entry Point 0.7301
Take Profit 0.7200, 0.7050
Stop Loss 0.7380
Key Levels 0.7050, 0.7130, 0.7180, 0.7200, 0.7250, 0.7275, 0.7295, 0.7310, 0.7335, 0.7370, 0.7400, 0.7420, 0.7435
Current trend
This week the pair NZD/USD lost around 150 points and reached the level of 0.7285. The instrument has left the wide upward trend, which made the investors rapidly increase the short positions volumes.
The pair is now trading within the narrow downward channel and reached the lower border of the range. US dollar is growing due to the positive employment market data and key indices releases this week. It is additionally supported by the change of the trading moods in its favor.
Today in the macroeconomic calendar there is lack of issues, which affect the dynamics of the pair.
Support and resistance
As there is no key catalyst, the pair is expected to enter a narrow sideways consolidation and later decrease to the levels of 0.7250, 0.7200, 0.7180. In case of a breakdown of the February minimum at the level of 0.7180, the instrument can decrease to the next strong support levels of 0.7130, 0.7050.
On the 4-hour chart, the technical indicators confirm the fall, MACD long positions volumes are going down rapidly, Bollinger Bands has reversed and are pointed downwards.
Resistance levels: 0.7310, 0.7335, 0.7370, 0.7400, 0.7420, 0.7435.
Support levels: 0.7295, 0.7275, 0.7250, 0.7200, 0.7180, 0.7130, 0.7050.

Trading tips
It is relevant to increase the volume of short positions at the current level with the targets at 0.7200, 0.7050 and stop loss at 0.7380.

USD/JPY: general review 23 February 2018, 11:43

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY STOP
Entry Point 107.50
Take Profit 107.81
Stop Loss 107.00
Key Levels 106.25, 106.64, 107.42, 107.81
Current trend 
The Japanese yen slightly strengthened against the US dollar traded in the Asian session. At the moment, the trade is near the support level of 1/8 Murray, or 106.64, if there is a breakdown, then the next target is at 106.25.
However, the further decline of the US dollar, according to traders' comments, is unlikely, and the weighty support here is provided by the yield of treasury bonds, the growth of which amounted to 2.94% The tightening of the monetary policy will continue, and interest rates will be raised at least three times this year.
As for Japan, the probability of interest rate changes remains extremely unlikely: inflation in the country remains low and, in order to raise its level, the Central Bank is forced to increase the money supply, instead of pursuing the tightening policy. As for the economy, the latest indicators revealed a worsening of the producers' sentiment. The reason for the pessimism could be a strong exchange rate of the national currency, which reduces the competition of goods on the world market. Against this background, the producer index was only 29 points against 35 a month earlier. Taking all the facts into account, the dollar's chances to continue growing are quite high.
Support and resistance
Stochastic is at the level of 37 points and does not provide signals for the opening of positions.
Resistance levels: 107.42, 107.81.
Support levels: 106.64, 106.25.

Trading tips
Opening long positions is possible above the support level of 3/8 Murray or 107.42 with protective orders at 107.00 and take-profit at the level of 107.81.

USD/CHF: the dollar is correcting 23 February 2018, 09:16

 

Scenario
Timeframe Intraday
Recommendation BUY LIMIT
Entry Point 0.9321
Take Profit 0.9424, 0.9450
Stop Loss 0.9265
Key Levels 0.9182, 0.9243, 0.9286, 0.9321, 0.9395, 0.9424, 0.9467, 0.9531
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 0.9310, 0.9290
Take Profit 0.9200, 0.9182
Stop Loss 0.9350, 0.9370
Key Levels 0.9182, 0.9243, 0.9286, 0.9321, 0.9395, 0.9424, 0.9467, 0.9531
Current trend
USD showed a strong decline against CHF yesterday on the basis of trading results, retreating from its local maxima.
Macroeconomic data from Switzerland gave moderate support to CHF on Thursday. Thus, the volume of industrial production in Q4 2017 increased by 8.7% QoQ and 19.6% YoY after growing by 9.2% QoQ and 9.7% YoY in Q3 2017. In addition, investors reacted to the results of the ECB meeting, which showed that the number of supporters of the "hawkish" rhetoric increased.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is practically not expanding, but still remains quite spacious for further growth of the instrument to new local maxima.
MACD indicator is growing preserving a moderate buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). There is an opportunity to maintain the existing long positions and open new ones in the short and/or ultra-short term.
Stochastic, getting close to its maximum marks, turned down reacting to the emergence of "bearish" dynamics during yesterday's trading. The indicator shows the possibility of developing a moderate corrective trend in the short or ultra-short term.
Resistance levels: 0.9395, 0.9424, 0.9467, 0.9531.
Support levels: 0.9321, 0.9286, 0.9243, 0.9182.


Trading tips
To open long positions, one can rely on the rebound from the support level of 0.9321, provided that the showings of technical indicators do not contradict the development of the correctional trend. Take-profit – 0.9424-0.9450. Stop-loss – 0.9265. Implementation period: 2-3 days.
Confident breakdown of the levels of 0.9321-0.9300 can become a signal for the development of downward correction. In this case, the target of the "bears" may be located around 0.9200 or 0.9182 marks. Stop-loss – 0.9350-0.9370. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

ATT Inc.: wave analysis 23 February 2018, 09:02

 

Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendation BUY
Entry Point 36.47
Take Profit 39.38, 42.65
Stop Loss 35.50
Key Levels 32.56, 35.15, 39.38, 42.65
Alternative scenario
Recommendation SELL STOP
Entry Point 35.10
Take Profit 32.56
Stop Loss 35.95
Key Levels 32.56, 35.15, 39.38, 42.65
The trend is upward.
On the 4-hour chart, the upward momentum is forming as a wave i of 3. At the moment the downward correction (ii) of I has ended, and the formation of the wave (iii) of I begins. If the assumption is correct, the price will grow to the levels of 39.38–42.65. The level of 35.15 is critical for this scenario.


Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant above the level of 35.15 with the targets at 39.38–42.65.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 35.15 will let the price go down to the level of 32.56.

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